

VettedLabs
22 posts

@VettedLabs
Protecting crypto investors. Vetted projects. Investing education.



🚨 Is Microstrategy's Bitcoin flywheel breaking? Strategy currently holds 843,775 Bitcoin, acquired for $63.7B at an average cost basis of $75,476 per coin. With $BTC trading around $64k, the treasury is sitting on nearly $10B in unrealized losses. But the drawdown isn't even the biggest concern. The first crack in their system came back in May earlier this year, when Strategy sold 32 BTC to cover stock dividends. Pretty insignificant amount right? Yup. But it shattered the 'diamond hands' narrative Strategy built over the last few years. As it was more of a psychological blow (rather than monetary), the market quickly priced the possibility of future BTC sales, and BTC dropped 20% (74k --> 59k) within 4 days. To understand the severity of the reaction, its important to understand Strategy's model: BTC rises ➡️ MSTR/STRC trades higher ➡️ Strategy issues stock ➡️ raise more capital ➡️ buy more BTC ➡️ repeat. As long as $BTC is uptrending, the flywheel keeps spinning. The problem comes during drawdowns. When $BTC falls, raising capital becomes harder. Now here's where things get interesting. Whenever $STRC drops below $95, its dividend rate goes up by 0.5%, and every increase is PERMANENT. The dividends started at 9%, and has already climbed to 12% within a year. Each increase is estimated to be an extra $53M in annual obligations 😬 Onramp's CEO described it as: "A capital structure that survives volatility only by adding permanent obligations has a finite number of cycles." So now the concern is the game theory. Strategy has shown it's willing to sell BTC under pressure, and the entire market knows where its weak spot lies. Do you think Strategy's Bitcoin model survives? Or will some actors try and exploit its weaknesses? Let us know below 👇 Follow us at @VettedLabs to stay informed.




🚨 $SPCX IPO: What you need to know: From its $135 IPO price to a peak of $225 in the first days, and currently trading around $153. Some investors and traders are calling this IPO a scam. But is it really a scam, or typical IPO Price Action? Here’s the data-backed playbook: 1️⃣ Index inflows: On July 7th, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100. Passive index funds will be forced to buy an estimated $4.3B of shares, which could stabilize the price in the short term. 2️⃣ Shares unlocks: Only 4.9% of shares are currently tradable. But over the next 6 months, roughly an additional 35% of total shares will unlock through SpaceX’s staggered 180-day release schedule, creating ongoing selling pressure. The biggest unlock will be in November 2026 of 10% total shares. 3️⃣ Historical precedent: The IPO Bleed Statistically, 60% to 70% of tech companies break below their initial IPO price, and those drop between -10% and -35% below it. The TSLA Playbook: In 2010,TSLA’s IPO price was $17, it peaked at $30.45 in the first days and then bled -12% below its IPO price to $14.98. Then it consolidated between $17 and $22 for 3-4 months until it eventually broke to the upside. 4️⃣ Will the bottom form after the November 10% unlock? Probably not. Like in TSLA, the most likely scenario is that the bottom forms before this, and this big unlock only causes a retrace because price would have already run after forming the bottom. ⚠️Conclusion: Investors should be prepared for a similar scenario: Based on previous IPOs, investors should also be prepared for the scenario in which $SPCX could drop -10% to -25% below the IPO price. That’s between $122 and $100 per share. Dropping below $100 is also possible, other IPOs dropped more but it would be really difficult due to the absorbing demand at a psychological level - not very likely. If you play long term, just DCA. The IPO cycle is taking over. Follow us at @VettedLabs for more. What do you think about SpaceX IPO? Scam or typical IPO cycle? Let us know below 👇















🚨 $SPCX IPO: What you need to know: From its $135 IPO price to a peak of $225 in the first days, and currently trading around $153. Some investors and traders are calling this IPO a scam. But is it really a scam, or typical IPO Price Action? Here’s the data-backed playbook: 1️⃣ Index inflows: On July 7th, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100. Passive index funds will be forced to buy an estimated $4.3B of shares, which could stabilize the price in the short term. 2️⃣ Shares unlocks: Only 4.9% of shares are currently tradable. But over the next 6 months, roughly an additional 35% of total shares will unlock through SpaceX’s staggered 180-day release schedule, creating ongoing selling pressure. The biggest unlock will be in November 2026 of 10% total shares. 3️⃣ Historical precedent: The IPO Bleed Statistically, 60% to 70% of tech companies break below their initial IPO price, and those drop between -10% and -35% below it. The TSLA Playbook: In 2010,TSLA’s IPO price was $17, it peaked at $30.45 in the first days and then bled -12% below its IPO price to $14.98. Then it consolidated between $17 and $22 for 3-4 months until it eventually broke to the upside. 4️⃣ Will the bottom form after the November 10% unlock? Probably not. Like in TSLA, the most likely scenario is that the bottom forms before this, and this big unlock only causes a retrace because price would have already run after forming the bottom. ⚠️Conclusion: Investors should be prepared for a similar scenario: Based on previous IPOs, investors should also be prepared for the scenario in which $SPCX could drop -10% to -25% below the IPO price. That’s between $122 and $100 per share. Dropping below $100 is also possible, other IPOs dropped more but it would be really difficult due to the absorbing demand at a psychological level - not very likely. If you play long term, just DCA. The IPO cycle is taking over. Follow us at @VettedLabs for more. What do you think about SpaceX IPO? Scam or typical IPO cycle? Let us know below 👇







Sad to see EU cutting their users off from the best liquidity in the world. Liquidity is the best consumer protection. Hope to see things change in the future.




