Vince2

@mansourtarek_ keep going, tarek

When Luana and I founded Kalshi at 21, we set out to build prediction markets into the world’s largest financial market. From day one, we defined a core principle: Do things the right way. We knew that regulation and trust had to be the foundation to build something enduring. That’s why we spent three grueling years getting regulated by the CFTC before we launched a single product. We did not know how hard it would be. It was three years of agony spent writing regulatory procedures and policy memos. As founders, it was painful to get bogged down in infinite bureaucracy instead of building things for customers… but we stayed committed to our belief that if we wanted prediction markets to thrive, we needed to address this hard part first. We prevailed, got regulated, and made prediction markets legal in the US. But the fight wasn’t done. Our next step was the election market. After years of engaging with the CFTC, they rejected it. Again, we stayed true to our principle: instead of going around regulations or going offshore, we decided to ask Federal Courts to weigh in. The Courts sided with us because we were right on the law. We freed prediction markets, took them mainstream, and won big. After the election, we were convinced that the value of prediction markets was now obvious to everyone, and that the regulatory battle for legal prediction markets was over… We were right, except for the everyone part. While we are disappointed to see the letter from the Nevada Gaming Commission, Kalshi will stay committed to our approach and keep paving the way for regulated prediction markets to thrive in the US. To the prediction markets community: last year proved how important our mission is. We have fought hard to get to this point, but the job’s not finished and the work will continue till prediction markets achieve their full potential. We keep marching 🇺🇸

@DommaSol how old are you?

Good reading for your discretionary counterparts: deshaw.com/library/machin…

Started, self-funded 👉 sold my sports company for $160mln at 28 years old Some life/business advice, hopefully somebody finds this valuable.. 🧵👇

I've made 7 figures in airdrop farming in 2024 and qualified for more than 100 airdrops. 🧵I will share with you 8 tips that will drastically improve your profits in this game and help you reach your goals in 2025

@DidiTrading yo didi dm’s

Day 83: I made over $240k purely from airdrops in 2024, and I’m aiming to earn even more in 2025. Below is a list of seven projects I’m farming with high conviction, ranked by importance. Kaito, Meteora, and Polymarket are at the top of the list, and these are projects you absolutely shouldn’t fade. As an airdrop farmer, it’s crucial to focus on as few projects as possible and aim for the highest rank you can achieve. Farming 50 airdrops at once is a waste of time—you’ll spread yourself too thin. Instead, zero in on your conviction plays, stand out, and maximize your returns.

Stop wasting your time chasing the 2x with small size. Waste of time: -2x on 1% of your port worth your time: - 2x on 20% - 5x on 10% - 100x on 1%

@DommaSol let’s go bro

One of the most sought-after ideas in financial markets is the idea of arbitrage because who doesn't like free money? In most cases, this term is confused with convergence strategies like stat-arb, so I thought that it would be helpful to shed some light on the topic.

*** BREAKING NEWS CPI 2.9% YoY, (Est. 2.9%) CPI 0.2% MoM, (Est. 0.4%) Core CPI 3.2% YoY, (Est. 3.3%) Core CPI 0.2% MoM, (Est. 0.3%) Very bullish !!! CORE LOWER!!! send it all Higher PUMPUARY

Nick Patterson, formerly with Renaissance Technologies: "...the most important thing to do in data analysis is to do the simple things right. So, here's a kind of non-secret about what we did at Renaissance: in my opinion, our most important statistical tool was simple regression with one target and one independent variable. It's the simplest statistical model you can imagine..." From 30:08 in this podcast: robohub.org/talking-machin… I discovered this podcast through Jacquier et al.'s recent paper on linear predictive models. The paper emphasizes simplicity in modeling, focusing on a few strong signals over many weak ones, and using as much data as possible. Read paper here: arxiv.org/abs/2501.03938

In 2024, Hyperliquid 1) redefined the crypto meta to put community above all. With Hyperliquid, there are no investors, no market makers, and no fees paid to any company. Billions of dollars of value were created by a common vision and relentless hard work. This value went directly to hundreds of thousands of users, building a passionate community with real skin in the game. You all continue to inspire me every day. 2) became the first mature, permissionless financial hub where liquidity and UX matched the most liquid centralized venues. Recent highlights include $15B 24-hour volume, reaching 20% of Bybit futures and 8% of Binance futures volume. Unlike CEXs, Hyperliquid accomplished this as a user-owned protocol. 3) reinvented several of the most entrenched and predatory centralized practices to be crypto-aligned: fair, transparent, and accessible. Examples of the last point: 1) Listings have always been controlled by CEXs that extort projects through listing fees to maximize their own profits. This is absurd, as the community drives long term success. CEXs tempt projects with immediate liquidity but kill their ultimate vision. On Hyperliquid, listings are fair, permissionless, and transparent: anyone can bid in the auction to deploy a new spot asset. Projects that want to control their own fate increasingly see Hyperliquid as one-stop infrastructure for both the tech stack and liquidity. 2) Historically, CEXs capture the lion's share of revenue in crypto. On Hyperliquid, builders are already bootstrapping 9 figure businesses. Some are monetizing >$100k per day in revenue entirely onchain through builder codes, which are a primitive built into the L1 to allow customizable monetization for applications. Others carve out and own entire verticals in the budding ecosystem. Builders are tapping into Hyperliquid as their blockchain of choice, and I’m excited for more and more to join the ecosystem this year. -- In 2025, I expect the technology of Hyperliquid to close much of the gap towards housing all of finance. The maturing technology will include a growing and permissionless validator set while improving the world-class liquidity infrastructure that Hyperliquid provides. Some concrete predictions: 1) Multiple billion dollar applications/protocols will be built on Hyperliquid. They will own their full stack but tap into the ever-growing liquidity and community. 2) More than 50% of volume from new defi projects will happen natively on Hyperliquid. Hungry teams will value the integration of CEX-level liquidity with the permissionless accessibility of blockchains. 3) Millions of users will use Hyperliquid without knowing about the blockchain at all. Just like web2, users will experience the magic of their favorite products without thinking about the underlying technology. These predictions are ambitious, but as I look back and realize just how much we've accomplished in a year, I think they're quite reasonable. Back to work!

@quantymacro it’s not just Steve, GS opened their summer’s as well in the US

it's actually insane that we're in Jan 2025, & they're opening app for 2026 Summer. the competition must be crazy high that it gets to this point. cant help but to wonder if this is optimal in terms of hiring though. but anyways Steve Cohen is a billionaire & I'm a sub seller so

@DidiTrading rate your daily posts - keep it up!

Day 68: Sonic Alpha Vault Was a Huge Success The Sonic Alpha Vault turned out to be a massive win. It was 10x oversubscribed, but if you deposited $420, you ended up buying 635 tokens for just $42. Right now, you can sell those tokens for around $500, and you can also claim back the unused USDC. This turned out to be a great cook, especially since I had multiple wallets involved. Now it’s time to move on to the next opportunity. Logging off for a few hours to spend some time on myself.

@mert pretty cool

weird fact I wrote this tweet at < 50 followers 3.5y ago it blew up and randomly got a VC (who's now a friend) to follow me when I went to raise the seed round of Helius much later, it was that person who introd me to our lead after several VCs passed not sure we could've raised otherwise

even though Su and Kyle are terrible people this is probably the best podcast ive ever listened to

@x40_oz $ME

Which PA will $Pengu replicate more