Vol Trader

@WarMonitor3 Can you provide any further details please?

There is unusual military movements north of Ukraines border near Belarus the situation is being monitored closely...

@ClarkSquareCap Any opinion on the stock?

Somebody realized today is the last day $MAPS trades on the Nasdaq and decided to puke all of it, huh

@DsrPrivate Got it, ty

@DsrPrivate Any further interpretation to the message? Unfortunately I am again very confused…

@DsrPrivate Thank you

@DsrPrivate Think he is still bearish here? No idea how to interpret his recent posts!

@DsrPrivate @stack116116 Polymarket trading 7/1, seems like a pretty good bet polymarket.com/event/will-the…

@SpecialSitsNews I can not see confirmed evidence of this yet?

Iran has targeted the King Fahd Bridge, the road link between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain has been severed. Insanity

@TheRealDanSaedi From what I can see, this appears to be incorrect?

@blondesnmoney Understood, thank you

@VolTrder When I say I like insurance I am solely referring to P&C Reinsurance. I never trade life insurers, I think it is way too complicated to have a position in any of them.

@shortbus_ace Are you surprised at the KIE vs XLF outperformance? What insurers would you be watching closest please? LNC, PRU, MET, LMND I think are ones on my radar

similar to what I was saying yesterday about PE before PC, the general narrative is certainly offsides as it relates to systemic risk for the obvious reasons (the point Bob makes on leverage). said directly, yes, Alternatives in 2026 vs Banks in 2007 is not a fair comparison. however, there is a part of the broader dynamic today that feels very similar to the GFC that seems to be missed (or at least underdiscussed). everyone loves to talk about the banks that blew up during the GFC. plus Hollywood and the media has focused on that side. what almost no one talks about, as it relates to the GFC, is the broader concern over regular peoples exposure beyond the stock market (insurance policies, pensions, etc.). that is where the issues really became "systemic" in the sense that the government started to act. in '07/'08, financial institutions were dropping like flies. New Century, American Home, Countrywide, IndyMac, all "allowed" to go belly up or rescued by other institutions. it wasn't until Fannie & Freddie ran into issues that large bailouts started (Bear was a small one), and even then Lehman still was allowed to go bankrupt. AIG, though, that the bailout flood gates were opened. in the span of 17 days, AIG was bailed out (first try), Goldman and Morgan were allowed to become BHCs to tap the Fed and TARP was signed into law. then a month later, AIG (part 2), Citi and the Auto bailouts came. the reason I am even discussing this all is because whenever I think about "systemic risk," my mind goes back to the justification for the AIG bailout from the NY Fed... "A run on AIG, in the form of a massive cashing in of insurance policies and annuities, would have strained the company's ability to meet its obligations to millions of policyholders." "Pension plans would have been forced to write down their AIG-related assets, resulting in significant losses in participants' portfolios." "The resulting losses to money market mutual funds, to which millions of Americans entrust their savings." ...and the overall point is that insurance companies and pension funds have very large exposures to Alternatives this go around. my concern is that, whether it is credit quality or redemption spiraling, all the issues with Alts eventually causes holes for insurance cos and pensions and then this all does become a much bigger issue than future fees. it will be slow, if it happens, but this is what worries me overall. importantly, this is not my base case at all and I really hope this ultimately looks like doomer nonsense. I'm sure many will hate this post and argue, but this is what I am thinking about and where I think the larger risks lie

@DsrPrivate @DanielSimonyi Got it, thank you

@DsrPrivate @DanielSimonyi Would be worried insurers could get caught up in it. E.g Legal & General (UK insurer) showed decent exposure and I assume some US life insurers (LNC, PRU, MET) could have decent exposure also. I presume it’s not easy to show the same you use to banks for the life insurers?

@moreproteinbars @DanielSingerS Looks like you are likely right!

@DanielSingerS @VolTrder Two days in a row?

I figured oil would be up 20% if they started mining the strait. What explains the markets reaction? I am seeing this wrong and I'm not sure why.

@moreproteinbars @DanielSingerS Understood, thank you

@VolTrder @DanielSingerS There is someone trying to execute futures as bad as possible.

@tallnfat @omshanti08 Do you interpret this as the highs in vol are now in or there is another leg higher to go still?

@omshanti08 The GOAT. Have a great weekend

@NegativeGW Ty

@NegativeGW Why is this? Would still think in the absence of other information this is currently my best gauge for risk off move also and translation is >50d