Daniel Steinberg Singer

If there's no deal, and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, why is oil -4.5%?

Good news: Iran MFA spox explicitly says there won't be any tolls on ships in the strait. Bad news: there will be, he says, a "fee" for services provided by Iran (and Oman) in the management of the strait. Working out what this means, how much it will cost, and who will play it is likely to take a while.

🚨After receiving a briefing from a Senior TRUMP Administration Official on the status of the Iran negotiations (someone in the know & not just speculating), I can tell you the following: -USA IS NOT GIVING IRANIANS MONEY FOR NOTHING. All speculation and propaganda to the contrary is false. Some hardline elements of Iran’s govt (IRGC) have pushed fake stories & propaganda to try to kill this negotiation. -Iran deal is NOT done (95%, but still haggling over some language). No deal being signed today. May be a few more days before this is done. -Iran will NOT get any money or sanctions relief up front. -Iran must turn over nuclear stockpile to get anything. USA position is that failure to meet deal commitments means Iran gets nothing. -Long term USA objective is preventing Iran from having nuclear weapon. -Initial deal point is to re-establish free flow of commerce by reopening Strait of Hormuz. Deal should have 2 phases: Step 1 - Open Strait of Hormuz. Give world economy breathing room. Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium. Step 2 - Get the nuclear material turned over. Only then can Iran get sanctions relief. Bottom line: goal is to make a deal that lowers costs for Americans, calms world energy markets, and guarantees that Iranians cannot have a nuclear weapon over the long term. We aren’t there yet. Iran takes forever to get you a response on even small things. But we are close although it still could be a few days. “If we get what we are demanding, this is going to be a historic deal,” SAO says. SAO sounds prepared to do no deal at all if all Iran will do is a “bad deal.” SAO admits deal could fall apart yet. But if a deal is reached, SAO expects very senior USA admin officials to take part in a signing ceremony of some sort. Iran has agreed in principle to the framework but there are still a couple points USA isn’t satisfied with. 95% done. But literally changing words sometimes requires days in Iran’s system. Haggling over language. But USA feels like we have a commitment on nuclear stockpile and on opening Strait of Hormuz. If IRAN doesn’t deliver on commitments, they get nothing. “Iran’s ability to project power is a lot more limited than it was two months ago,” SAO says. “Their industrial base for building ballistic missiles has been substantially destroyed.”

President Trump is the ONLY one who could have gotten Iran — the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism — to the negotiating table. We are greatly encouraged to learn a PEACE DEAL in Iran is underway — and look forward to learning more about the specifics. Under President Trump’s leadership, our nation is stronger, more respected on the global stage, and safer than ever before.

US peace deal with Iran includes according to Iranian Media: -Reopening Hormuz but under Iranian control. -Releasing billions in frozen Iranian funds -Ending the US navy blockade and withdrawing US forces from the region.

According to Iranian and Arab sources Trump agreed to -compensate Tehran by releasing blocked funds (at least $6 billion) -lift sanctions -remove American forces from around Iran (Iranian sources more specifically mention the naval assets in the region) -lift the blockade -ceasefire in all fronts including in Lebanon (basically allowing Tehran to rearm its proxy network and help Hizballah reasserts its control in Lebanon) In exchange for -gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz with the transit remaining under Tehran’s management and control -negotiations over other issues with no hard deadline (the 30-day negotiation window can be extended) Washington has not denied any of these claims. This is a total surrender, pretty symbolic if it is announced on Memorial Day.

If you go on a weight loss drug such as a GLP-1 or similar just to shed a few pounds, you will likely become psychologically dependent upon these drugs for life. If you stop and regain the weight, which almost all do, you will find it extremely difficult to lose the weight again without the drugs. You then will be forever dependent on these drugs, something you may not have considered, The folks that “hop on a cycle of Reta” to get lean for the summer are going to be stuck on these drugs for life, or at least the vast majority will. Just watch it play out!

people don’t realize how heavily subsidized AI is right now your o3 prompts probably cost more in electricity alone than your subscription fee remember when uber was awesome and cheaper than a taxi? yeah, that.