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waves
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HUGE: The US is demanding trillions in "war ransom" from its Persian Gulf Arab allies. Trump demands the GCC cough up $5 trillion for him to continue the war on Iran, and $2.5 trillion if they want him to stop.
thecradle.co/articles-id/36…
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% of S&P 500 stocks below their 20sma = 12.75%
% of Russell 2000 stocks below their 20sma = 15.39%
% of Nasdaq 100 stocks below their 20sma = 18.81%
% of Dow stocks below their 20sma = 9.37%
These are historically good time to dollar cost average into things you want to own. $SPY $IWM $QQQ $DIA
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waves retweetledi
𝗬𝗼𝘂'𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝗵𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀, 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁?
"VXX always goes to zero because of contango."
And in normal markets, it's true. VXX rolls from the front month VIX future into the more expensive back month. Every day it's buying high and rolling down. Structural decay.
But during a real crisis, the VIX curve flips. Front month trades above back month. Backwardation.
And suddenly VXX is rolling into cheaper contracts, not more expensive ones. It's earning a positive roll yield. The thing that's "supposed to always decay" is actually accruing value on every roll.
So you should buy it, right?
No. And this is where people get fooled twice.
Yes, the roll is helping you. But you're buying VXX at 34 when it was 18 two weeks ago. If vol normalizes even a little, VXX drops 10-15% in days. The roll yield earns you pennies. The price collapse costs you dollars.
Understanding why VXX doesn't decay in backwardation is useful. But using that as a reason to buy it is a trap. The people who really understand the mechanics use that knowledge to sell into strength, not build a long position.
That's the difference between understanding a product and actually trading it well.
I do think VIX may be floored at 20 for a while, but from 25 to 20 is still a 20% drop. The exhaustion we are seeing in vol right now makes a pullback more likely unless the news flow gets materially worse.
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waves retweetledi
Need to see some outsized volume into stocks going up than into stocks going down to have a meaningful bottom. Put this ratio $UVOL / $DVOL on your watchlist. Expect plenty of bounces in a downtrend market but a true meaningful bottom will be confirmed with volume. $SPY
Tom McClellan@McClellanOsc
Everything Mark wrote is correct. The confirmation of the ZBT matters. But the oversold condition that is a 1st requirement is usually worth at least a failing bounce of a decent magnitude.
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@JC_ParetsX Oil relative to spx is wild too just like it is to gold. The global economy is going to suffer a lot under these high oil price conditions
x.com/i/status/20315…
waves@updowninwaves
No words here either $USOIL $SPY This chart goes back to the 1880's 👀
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👀
Sam Gatlin@sam_gatlin
Good eye, @HowCanIKelp. Here's something interesting I found... $XOP just had its best 8-day ROC relative to $GOEX ever. Last time we saw a massive thrust was in Q4 2020, which kick-started a massive uptrend. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line rip higher for another few years.
ART
$SPY, $QQQ, $VOO, $IVV - For the last six months, institutions have been distributing in this six-month range. Today, price broke down below it.
1/3
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waves retweetledi
I dont know how to say this any other way, but you got to follow @options_insight on X. He is putting out free fucking alpha that you should remember until the day you die.
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight
𝗟𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁. When spot makes a new low and VIX refuses to make a new high, pay attention. That's a vol divergence. The options market is quietly telling you it doesn't believe the selloff has legs. But most traders miss it because they're staring at candlesticks. Here's how to read it properly. Pull up fixed strike vol on the front of the curve. If the market is selling off hard and fixed strike vol is flat or drifting lower, that's your tell. The people who price risk for a living are saying "we're not buying fresh protection here." Think about what that means. If vol can't rally when the market is getting destroyed, what happens when spot bounces even 1%? Vol gets annihilated. So the real trade here is selling the vol that can't go up. Different expression, completely different risk profile, and way better risk-reward than just buying the dip. When you learn to trade in more than just the spot dimension, you find edge in other areas like VEGA.
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Slow and controlled down move until May/June OPEX, just like they did in 2022. Key word is controlled, market is controlled. $SPY
Bracco ⚡️@Braczyy
Feels like market setting up for a similar upside reversal trade to January 24th, 2022. First leg down out of a multi-month topping pattern. Flushed through 200-day moving average with consecutive down days. Big panic gap down the following Monday and undercut the previous lows. Nearing April 2025 low AVWAPs on $SPY $QQQ
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@financialjuice What??? we just rallied in the after hours on taco news
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US official on Trump's Truth Post: I don't think Trump's post signals an imminent end to the war.
FinancialJuice@financialjuice
Trump: We're getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East
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March OPEX darkpools are fucking 🔥 This is going to take forever to go review @VolumeLeaders
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Highest volume day ever for $CMCSA. This is either going to move fast and never look back or is going to be range bound for the next year. If you have a time horizon larger than a year, start with naked put selling with the goal to take assignment of the stock, then sell covered calls.
waves@updowninwaves
$CMCSA No brainer for 2026
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Saudi Arabia and UAE inch closer to supporting US-Israeli war - Middle East Eye
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@VIXandMore Could also be that he is cognitively deficient, low-functioning, fundamentally and clinically retarded..
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Odd that Trump would post some very bullish content after the market closed. As market timing aware as he is, you’d think this would have come out during the last hour of trading, with options expiration still pending. I wonder if he is worried about some sort of Black Monday.
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@updowninwaves Appreciate it man! You were on the ride as well!
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The writing was on the wall for months…
QUARTERLY IMBALANCE 🎯
The market was kind enough to do it on a Friday so I can victory lap the whole weekend 🔥🔮
$SPY $NQ $DIA
MANDO TRADING@MandoTrading
$NQ quarterly imbalance calling…
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MOC Imbalance
S&P 500: -7654 mln
Nasdaq 100: +625 mln
Dow 30: -2414 mln
Mag 7: +159 mln
Polski
@financialjuice he's begging everyone to get involved. What a gong show
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Trump on Strait of Hormuz: It'd be nice if China gets involved.
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