@matthughes13 Macro unfortunately governs this company’s ticker for the foreseeable future. 50% hair cut in the realm of possible if oil crisis continues/worsens. Long-term bull case still stands.
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Will Pottenger
49 posts
@SimonDixonTwitt Fake news. Iran discredited this in under an hour.
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✅ EXPECTED TERMS IN "FINAL DRAFT" OF US-IRAN AGREEMENT:
1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts
2. All parties mutually agree to refrain from targeting infrastructure
3. Freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed under a "joint monitoring mechanism"
4. Sanctions will be "gradually lifted" in exchange for Iran's compliance with the terms of the deal
5. Negotiations on outstanding issues will begin within a maximum of 7 days
6. Iran's President Pezeshkian is leading efforts to restrain the IRGC from overstepping on political and diplomatic policy-making
Meanwhile…
✅ SpaceX, Anthropic & OpenAI IPO’s accelerating through.
✅ Bond yields easing on the news.
Simon Dixon@SimonDixonTwitt
If I were Trump and about to announce a deal with Iran, I’d time it alongside the SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs. If I were Goldman Sachs, I’d want to collect my fees at the highest valuation possible. This is the biggest bubble since the 1999 dot-com era. Bond yields are at levels last seen in 2007, pushing mortgage rates to unsustainable levels. I think they can pump this bubble much further by timing the announcement of a deal with Iran. Don’t get me wrong. This bubble still has a long way to go. But it is a bubble, and China knows how to pop it if they want to. There’s also a massive money print waiting on the other side of this bubble. This will be the largest wealth transfer in modern history. And the financial-industrial complex knows it. If you don’t own assets, you only experience the higher energy prices. The K-shaped economy is pushing both sides to their extremes. Timing this market is not going to be easy, but the FIC wins and Main Street looses. By design.
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@ATnoir @Rory_Johnston @JavierBlas Price manipulation by sovereigns has to be a significant part of it.
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@Rory_Johnston @JavierBlas Rory, in your opinion, why does the market continue react. Surely you’d adjust your algo by now
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"I think the war is very complete, pretty much" ~ Donald Trump, 73 days ago
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP: IRAN CONFLICT WILL END VERY SOON
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@Rory_Johnston @KYRRadio “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me this clown market ten times? Congratulations, its officially dumber than a bag of wet rocks with a learning disability.”
And yeah… I smell a whole damn rat factory.
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@amitisinvesting He won’t have to. There is no chance they raise rates. They’ll turn on the printing press and lower rates. They’ll tells us inflation is 4 when it’ll run at 10-15%. Problem is you need an excuse to print (I.e. Iran and oil).
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FED MINUTES INDICATE A MAJORITY OF OFFICIALS BELIEVE INFLATION IS PERSISTENT AND COULD REQUIRE HIKES
Warsh is going to have some work to deal with soon…
If it really is just oil, then maybe the war ending helps get rid of the case for a hike (even if we don’t get a cut) but if it’s more than oil as the reason…
Not sure Trump could handle his Fed Chair actually deciding to raise rates.
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@amitisinvesting Less than an hour later it’s been discredited by Iran. At this point people would be better off putting admin announcements on mute.
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BREAKING: There is now a reported draft of a U.S.-Iran agreement reached via Pakistan mediation and an announcement is expected within hours
- Deal reportedly includes an immediate comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts.
- Parties would agree not to target infrastructure, while freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz would be guaranteed under a joint monitoring mechanism.
- Sanctions would be gradually lifted in exchange for Iran’s compliance, with talks on unresolved issues set to begin within seven days.
So, we've seen things like this before...maybe this one is more legitimate because of the Pakistanis being involved along with the fact that Trump canceled his AI executive order signing ceremony today...oil just fell below $100 so if this is true, we'd probably be finding out soon.
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@KYRRadio I’ve already written off any sense of balance until it’s over. Embracing it makes it easier.
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Biggest crude draw in history (SPR included) and we’re down 5% because “we’re close to a deal”. Headline came out 15 mins before draw data😂
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@W_pottenger Be careful. But I hear ya. Feels like buying fire insurance for a house on fire
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@amitisinvesting Bonds yield issue is a sovereign debt crisis layered on top of energy crisis. AI CAPEX cannot prop up earnings when all financial models get thrown out the window in a new world order.
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these bond yields spiking is so, so bad but it’s also like who cares cause earnings aren’t slowing down so…
unless the market eventually starts to care
last time we were even close to 4.7% on the 10-year, S&P was down 30% 😂
AI capex is literally the only story keeping this party going and it simply cannot slow down
but once again, this is a dip for ants, the parabolic moves up make this dip look like these stocks are just going back to normal which ironically might be “the dip”
funnily enough, software down intraday as semis pump again 😆
the market is just torn on these sectors but also refuses to care about bonds and oil
still not extreme greed yet either
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@Daniel_Milthe14 Yes sir. It could take a month for the market to realize the train is coming. But trying to chase growth here is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer.
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@W_pottenger Looks like we’re on the same page. energy could steal the spotlight later this year.
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@Daniel_Milthe14 Long oil. The oil story will eclipse AI for the second half of this year.
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@W_pottenger Waiting for the chaos to clear, or just swapping to another ticker?
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@Ryan_AZRealtor @amitisinvesting Visible signs of weakening impact. Initial tweets would move oil ~10%
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@amitisinvesting How long is the market gonna buy this garbage daddy Trump is keeps trying to sell? Originally a two week operation now we are going on what 12 weeks. At some point the market will ignore daddy Trump.
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@Stephen_Trades1 @amitisinvesting Only the sixth time I’ve been hit by this. Pent up demand for call options has to be outrageous.
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@amitisinvesting An order to sell -1000 Crude Oil futures hits the market just about 30mins before that tweet
$CL_F
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Respectively disagree. Oil will be the biggest story of the second half of this year. Commodity prices don’t move like equities because they are fractal. Timing the rotation requires skills most people don’t have. It’ll be a harsh COVID like sell off when the full extent of the crisis is appreciated by the market. This is the inverse effect of COVID on oil and the pricing will mirror it.
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The stock market is rigged FOR retail.... says @ChrisCamillo on his @notthreadguy interview.
What do you think?
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@ChrisCamillo @valleyjoe7o7 @punk9059 @notthreadguy Any near term concerns about Amazon’s oil consumption (3M/barrels per day) during the biggest oil crisis in history? Agree with long-term AI play, but there’s carnage on the horizon.
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@ChrisCamillo Negative. It is oil. Dumb money episode on the Iran War would be dope. It has COVID level implications even if it completely opened tomorrow.
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Unreal month. Everyone asking for the next trade. Still might be $AMZN
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