Wolfgang Schmidt
17.7K posts
@W_Schmidt_
Privates Profil. Staatsrat, Staatssekretär und Bundesminister a.D.
Wolfgang Schmidt (@W_Schmidt_ ) y Enma López (@EnmaLopez) en 'Agenda Pública': "La respuesta a Trump tiene que ser más Europa". Una conversación con @mlopezplana. agendapublica.es/noticia/20870/…
If the Strait is closed for much longer we are f*cked. Peak covid lock down led to a ~8 mbpd oil demand destruction. The largest global demand destruction event in history. Current supply destruction is ~ twice as large, meaning even a covid style lockdown won't be enough to balance the market. Even with announced SPR releases of 400 MB from the US it will still not be enough. The size of the release doesn't matter what matters is how fast they can be drained, which should be ~2 mbpd. There is no policy tool which can offset the massive supply cliff which is unfolding
👋 Hoy en Agenda Pública 🇩🇪🇪🇸 Wolfgang Schmidt y Enma López en 'Agenda Pública': "La respuesta a Trump tiene que ser más Europa" Alemania y España son dos motores europeos que necesitan entendimiento frente a un escenario internacional incierto. @W_Schmidt_, exjefe de la Cancillería alemana con Olaf Scholz, y @EnmaLopez, portavoz adjunta del PSOE, conversan con el editor y director de 'Agenda Pública', @mlopezplana, sobre los retos —comunes y nacionales— que enfrentan Madrid y Berlín, con Donald Trump, Rusia y la guerra en Irán como principales focos de interés. 📎 bit.ly/4tfnGS4 🇩🇰 Un delicado acto de equilibrio para la política danesa El éxito macroeconómico y diplomático no garantiza la supervivencia política en Europa. Desde Copenhague, el comentarista político @ThomasBerntH disecciona la amarga victoria electoral de la primera ministra danesa tras liderar un histórico gobierno de centro. 📎 bit.ly/4tcwXtU
Das war ein spannendes Gespräch gestern mit Volker @Wissing & @W_Schmidt_ (SPD) über Debattenkultur, Vertrauen & das Thema des Abends: #Verantwortung. Einblicke hinter die Kulissen gab es inklusive. @CBudras (@faznet) hat moderiert. Begrüßung durch unsere Direktorin @jsprondel.
Was euch noch diese Woche bei uns erwartet: Volker @Wissing im Gespräch mit @W_Schmidt_ (SPD) über #Verantwortung, eine andere politische Kultur & die eigene Haltung zum Freiheitsbegriff. Corinna Budras (@faznet) moderiert. 🗓️ 26.03., 19:30 Uhr 🎟️ uraniaberlin.reservix.de/p/reservix/eve…
Iran attempted to strike Diego Garcia, located 3,800km from its shores, revealing it possesses intermediate-range missiles capable of reaching much, or even all, of Europe. Thread on what we know about Iran's long-range missile capabilities. 1/18
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium dynamics—poses an increasing threat to global economic wellbeing and financial stability. #economy #energy #markets #middleeastwar
With a major energy crisis unfolding, @IEA is supporting market stability with a historic oil stock release But the demand side also has a part to play. Our new report sets out immediate options that can help shelter consumers from today’s oil shock ➡️ iea.li/3NhInxv
BREAKING: The world thought Hormuz was an oil story. Then it became an LNG story. If the damage assessment holds, it becomes a civilisation-input story that lasts half a decade. There is a difference between a shipping shock and a capacity shock that the market has not yet priced. A shipping shock traps molecules. The oil exists, the gas exists, the tankers are anchored, and when the strait reopens the molecules flow again. A capacity shock destroys molecules. The liquefaction trains that convert gas into LNG are physically damaged. The molecules cannot be produced even if every ship in the world is available to carry them. QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that damage to Ras Laffan is severe. Repairs to impaired liquefaction capacity could take three to five years. Force majeure was declared on March 4 and has since escalated as the damage assessment worsened through March 18 and 19. Long-term contract buyers including Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China face multi-year delivery disruptions. Shell declared force majeure on cargoes it resells from QatarEnergy. The market must now confront a possibility it has refused to model: that roughly 17 percent of Qatar’s 77 million tonne per annum capacity is not delayed but structurally impaired. JERA’s CEO stated that the global LNG market does not have the spare capacity to bridge the gap if Hormuz-linked supply is meaningfully lost. That single sentence reprices everything. If the replacement molecules do not exist in sufficient volume, the adjustment mechanism is not alternative supply. It is fuel switching, demand destruction, and rationing by balance-sheet strength. Rich buyers can pay more. Poor buyers cannot. The poor buyers are already breaking. Vietnam’s diesel is up 40 to 59 percent. Australia’s petrol is up 70 cents per litre. Sri Lanka is rationing fuel with QR codes at 15 litres per car per week, a four-day workweek, and Wednesday school closures. India raised LPG prices while importing 85 percent of its crude through a strait that is 90 percent shut. Gulf air cargo collapsed 79 percent. Jet fuel surged 58 percent. IndiGo and Akasa imposed surcharges. Vietnam Airlines warned of shortages from April. Ninety-five countries have reported petrol price increases since February 28. Ras Laffan is not just LNG. It is helium, urea, methanol, polyethylene, and sulfur. The downstream cascade from a multi-year Qatari impairment runs through semiconductor fabrication, pharmaceutical synthesis, phosphate fertiliser production, food packaging, and desalination. The facility that is damaged produces the molecules that four billion people depend on for chips, medicine, fertiliser, plastic, and drinking water. Europe’s post-2022 gas security was built on Qatari LNG replacing Russian pipelines. A structural impairment does not merely make gas expensive. It makes gas unavailable to industry. That is how an LNG shock becomes a deindustrialisation shock. BASF and Yara are already cutting fertiliser output. Russian LNG fills the gap at 18 to 22 percent of European imports. The country Europe sanctioned is the country Europe now depends on because the country Europe trusted was struck in a war Europe refused to join. Anyone arguing this resolves quickly now carries the burden of proof. They must explain where the replacement molecules come from when the world’s largest LNG hub is physically impaired, the strait is commercially closed, and the CEO of Asia’s biggest power buyer says there is no bridge. The market priced a shipping delay. The evidence demands a capacity repricing. The difference between those two words is measured in years, in trillions of dollars, and in whether the lights stay on. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Realtime economics for Econ students. Short run price -elasticity of demand for oil. I have just run a "quick and dirty" regression with monthly data 2022- 2025. I obtain an elasticity of -0.0644 A 1% reduction in the quantity supplied to the market triggers a 16% increase in the price @Bellmanequation @dandolfa @miguelolea @kiguel @DWinkelried @Shin_Mkto
