The single biggest mistake I see on earnings calendar spreads, and it makes a good trade look twice as good as it is.
When you buy a calendar into earnings, what you're really buying is the forward vol between the two expiries. The front expiry that contains the earnings is pumped up with event premium. The back expiry behind it is priced lower, and it will reset lower the moment the earnings pass and the event vol comes out.
Here's where people get fooled. The platform models your P&L off today's inflated vols, so it shows you a beautiful max profit, a 6 to 1 or even 8 to 1 payoff. Then earnings happen, the back-leg vol resets down maybe 11 points, and that gorgeous payoff quietly becomes 2 to 1.
I do this with members in our Discord all the time. They show me a trade they think is 8 to 1, I drop the back vol to model the reset, and it's 2 to 1. Sometimes that's still fine, trade it. But you have to know.
For me that's the whole lesson on calendars. Always model the vol reset before you fall in love with the screen. The forward vol is what you actually own, and it never looks as pretty once you price it honestly.
Sometimes the best theta trade is no theta trade, and the surface is saying that now.
Drop in dealer gamma exposure, inverted term structure, skew jumping, tech earnings due, war escalation headlines. Each says the near-term risk is high.
Hunting theta into that is asking to get run over. Sitting out is a position too. Wait for the market to show you that it is choked up on gamma again.
But the theta junkies just can't help themselves! Can you sit on your hands for even a week?
The reflex to get long a dip is to sell puts. In pumped tech vol, that's the dangerous one. Unless it's cash-covered.
The puts look fat. But on a big down day the leveraged tech ETFs dump stock and run your short puts over.
To play a bounce I'd rather use a call fly. Defined risk, no ETF landmine. Much easier to size it. Can unwind early once you get some spot up / vol down action.
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