WagerMinds

Soon, we'll all just be daily fantasy sports affiliates trying to convince one another to click on a link.

@jasongay The setlist starts with a banger, though. Another Girl, Another Planet: youtube.com/watch?v=ZvCAGL…

I'm not sure about having the Replacements on the space station.

@compoundpapi He's saying appointing Powell was a mistake and he should have gone with the 'runner-up' then, who was Warsh.

@asanwal insidehighered.com/news/business/…

Why does college keep getting more expensive?

@michaelshermer How does one define 'without incident?' washingtonpost.com/immigration/20…

Exactly, and that is what has been happening in many other states and cities, without incident. Why is this happening in Minneapolis but not other cities where the same thing is happening?

@michaelshermer Don't you think it's possible that no one is missing your point but, instead, they find your point to be a) obvious and b) sophomoric and c) inane?

Agreed. No excuse for murder. Not my point at all. Why do so few here miss the point I’m making? It’s so simple! His own father warned him not to be stupid and engage. He engaged. He’s dead. He wouldn’t be if he’d stayed far away from the ICE action. That’s a choice. Own it.

The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors: ▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped). ▫️Rest of players called “Square”. ▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%. ▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%. ▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%. ▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums. ▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge. ▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk ▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me). ▫️How sportsbook profile players: > Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play) > Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models) > E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds) > Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets) ▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game). ▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays). ▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often). ▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.” ▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.” ▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable). ▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%). ▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread. ▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet. ▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers. ▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings. *** Lots other great details here: economist.com/christmas-spec…

Just an absolutely brutal beat for Penn State bettors. Penn State wins 52-6 and Villanova (+47) covers on final play of the game on THIS throw and catch

@GavinSBaker And for intellectual honesty sake, you should take a crack at quantifying "meaningful and measurable" so that you can check back in a year (or two or three) and see if that prediction held up.

And if anyone has not watched the Bret Maier interview with Elon and other members of DOGE, I highly recommend it. DOGE is going to have a meaningful and measurable impact on the deficit, which will have a multiplicative effect if rates also come down. And regardless of politics, all Americans should want them to succeed. More efficiency = more benefits for any given level of spend.

Worth watching, especially for anyone skeptical on DOGE. @AntonioGracias is one of my closest friends, one of the most exceptional people I know and extremely high integrity. Grateful to him, Elon and many others for serving 🇺🇸 at DOGE.

@GavinSBaker @AntonioGracias You may want to know that asylum applicants typically apply for the work permit (which then triggers a SS # being issued) so that they can get a job legally (which leads to them paying taxes).

@tomgara If you want truly elite dive bar action (much) later, head to the Old Pink on Allen Street (about four blocks from Anchor). Or if you want 2001 Space Odyssey velvet weird cocktail lounge, head to High Violet on Elmwood (about 1 miles from Anchor).

We’re at the place in Buffalo that invented Buffalo wings. 100% lives up to the legend, really exceptional Buffalo wings, overall great vibes, perfect establishment

Top 10 U.S. states in sports betting $$ wagered, Jan. 2024 (of states reporting so far): 1. New York: $1.97B 2. New Jersey: $1.72B 3. PA: $858M 4. Ohio: $811.6M 5. Nevada: $783M 6. Virginia: $653M 7. MA: $651.7M 8. Michigan: $601.6M 9. Colorado: $596.7M 10. Maryland: $545M

$185.6 million was bet on the Super Bowl with Nevada sportsbooks, an all-time record.

@OneRoofFdn @KrakenIceplex @Starbucks I've tried multiple ways to reach you to have a jersey shipped that I paid for via an auction you held. Email didn't work. Twitter DM didn't work. What does?

The @KrakenIceplex @Starbucks Community Store continues to support One Roof Foundation programs with a percentage of all sales being donated back each year. This year donations supported field trips for Title 1 schools & local non-profits, and our Financial Assistance program!

@OneRoofFdn @SeattleKraken @ClimateArena Hi - Sent you a DM about a Jersey auction I won. It’d be great to get a response.

Community inspired. Serving as the philanthropic arm of the @SeattleKraken & @ClimateArena, One Roof Foundation envisions a more equitable society and a healthy planet where all people can realize a brighter future → bit.ly/RaisingOneRoof…

@strainsovhorror Any idea if Poturalski is in the lineup for tonight?

Eeli Tolvanen is here in a sweatsuit. Jaycob Megna and Andrew Poturalski joined him soon after #seakraken

@PinkPoloShorts What would have been the largest PE buyout of financial services co + credit crisis + white shoe firms fighting over MAC definitions. Get Al Lord and J.C. Flowers interviews and voila, ratings bonanza.

@WagerMinds Hell yeah

If Bloomberg did business 30 for 30-style documentaries what is your short list of docs? A few for me: - Bass Bros. / Rainwater - Reginald Lewis story - Battle for Disney in early 80s - Battle for the GM Building - Blackstone’s 2007 (Hilton and EOP)

@PinkPoloShorts @Mr_Neutral_Man @TSOH_Investing They did return cash to investors in 2017.

@Mr_Neutral_Man @TSOH_Investing I think there's some agency problem in having lackluster performance and saying "well gosh our style doesn't work at this scale" and then not either a) changing your style or b) returning cash.

Klarman: "I'm more worried about the world broadly than I've ever been in my career... I’d be worried we’ll have another 10 years of zero returns." Scary stuff indeed... the only problem is that it's from May 2010. For what it's worth, the S&P 500 is up >3x since he said it.

If you or anyone you know has recently purchased picks from a sports betting tout, DM us and let us know about the experience (please).

@innoc_bystander “Other people have a nationality. The Irish and Jews have a psychosis.” Brendan Behan.