Watson2314

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Watson2314

Watson2314

@WatsonsOptions

Human

Cunter, Svizra Katılım Ağustos 2024
304 Takip Edilen279 Takipçiler
₿rett
₿rett@brettmacro·
Chuck Norris was our last chance at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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Watson2314
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions·
@Namzes_G XLE topped. With you and trading it month out.
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Namzes
Namzes@Namzes_G·
Discussed the idea of potential oil export ban by U.S. with my guys 2 weeks ago before this rumor hit the news. The conclusion was it wouldn’t lower product prices; so export ban on products rather than crude makes more sense. -WTI-Brent spread pointing to export ban being a high risk (we went from flat to high double digit $ spread in 2 weeks) -My energy portfolio was constructed with that in mind: non-US names would be beneficiaries in such a scenario -In the event export ban happens and WTI pulls back and U.S. names sell off I’d look to buy US oil stocks on any weakness as I think they should be viewed on Lt basis with higher oil floor ($75 WTI could be new floor from pure technical standpoint the longer this conflict lasts). Focus on LT FCF/growth in $80 environment rather than one time 150-200 spike over a few months. When the dust settles and Hormuz is reopened, LT picture for US energy sector looks fantastic. -Feedback/Pushback from energy experts always welcome.
Namzes@Namzes_G

Wild thought: what if trumps strategy is destroying all middle eastern #oil cutting off China +prices skyrocket making US a strategic producer controlling large share of energy production? -I am long $FANG and some other US names eg $DVN with upside potential and still priced reasonably in a normal $70 oil environment post conflict resolution whenever that comes. Nice 4 year bases suggest a multi quarter trend move could be developing. -Canadian names ran quite a bit so brainstormed some other ideas with folks who are more knowledgeable. I think buying quality names outside of U.S. that’s haven’t run much and give high divy floor is a way to supplement US exposure in case of export ban by trump. $VAR.OL $VARRY $AKR.OL $AKRBY with 10%+ divy as solid floor. $EC $PBR with more upside to oil prices but lower floor.

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Watson2314
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions·
@kpak82 AMAZING week - Thank you my friend. GREAT WORK with all the charts, private twitter and telegram. THE COMPLETE package. Plus all of your direct replies to my dumb questions. Really good work, Thank you. You're a good guy. HAGW.
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kpak
kpak@kpak82·
😉my inverse quant went long $PLTR yesterday.
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions

@kpak82 KPAK YOU SOB! You did it again with PLTR! NAILED THE TELEGRAM LAST NIGHT TOO!!!!! GANGSTER! TOTAL GANGSTER! 😍😍😍🥰🥰🥰

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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The Trump Administration has made "detailed preparations" for deploying US ground forces into Iran, per CBS News. Details include: 1. Senior military commanders have sent Trump specific requests aimed at preparing for a ground invasion 2. Trump has been "deliberating" whether to position ground forces in the region 3. The US has held meetings to prepare for how to handle the "possible detention of Iranian soldiers and paramilitary operatives" in a ground invasion 4. The US is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East region It's going to be another busy weekend ahead.
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REPORTS SAY A "VERY STRONG BLAST" OCCURRED IN ISFAHAN, BUT THE CAUSE IS UNKNOWN.
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Connor Bates
Connor Bates@ConnorJBates_·
The most bifurcated market I've ever seen > Optics & memory stocks trading like we're in full risk-on mode $LITE $SNDK $AAOI $AXTI acting like the party never stopped (albeit very choppy) > MAG-7? Completely bid-less. $MAGS -10% YTD. > $VIX living above 20-25 — huge daily ranges, volatility isn't leaving anytime soon > $XLE the best performing S&P sector YTD > $USO +76% YTD > Gold, Silver, Copper all breaking down... so much for the "hard assets" trade > $SOXX 10% off 52-week highs and $NVDA just broke the 200-DMA, sitting 17% off ATH's > Sentiment readings are all over the place > SPX, QQQ, DIA all below the 200-DMA > $FSLY +147% YTD !! > Credit Spreads breaking out > Every speculative darling from this bull market is basically dead ~ $IREN $CIFR $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $HOOD $RDDT $PLTR Etc ++ > Bond markets beginning to panic > $XLF bid-less Schizophrenic Market!
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Watson2314
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions·
RT @AJNlive: Alex Jones interviewed Chuck Norris many times over the years — always powerful, always unforgettable. This clip from October…
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Watson2314
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions·
RT @kpak82: One mental capital pro tip: Scenario: Market is bleeding and you missed an obvious short entry from the previous days. You can…
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Baba Banaras™
Baba Banaras™@RealBababanaras·
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has reportedly asked Pakistan to repay a USD 6.3 billion loan after Pakistan failed to honor the bilateral defense pact, under which an attack on one is considered an attack on both. Saudi officials are reportedly unable to reach Pakistan’s PM & army chief.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Yesterday’s trading session was absolutely wild: Long-only funds sold -$9.6 billion in US stocks during Thursday morning's sell-off, the largest amount on record. This marked a 5-sigma event, meaning a move of this magnitude is almost never seen under normal market conditions. By comparison, the previous record was -$8.7 billion on July 31, 2025. Every sector saw selling pressure, with the heaviest concentration in Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials. Sentiment has become overly bearish.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Watson2314
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions·
@iV_trader You don’t control the market. You share opinions. Never apologise.
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Watson2314
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions·
@kpak82 I WAS DYING laughing when I saw that - I actually went to his twitter to see - he makes 90k a month from subs! WTF
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Patricia Marins
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64·
Trump and Netanyahu see the same mirages as Saddam On September 22, 1980, Saddam Hussein assembled a force of 50,000-70,000 men, 2,500-3,000 tanks, IFVs and APCs, supported by about 120-150 aircraft and 400 pieces of artillery/MLRS, and invaded the Iranian province of Khuzestan. The Iraqi army of the era was modern, well-equipped, and technologically superior. Capitalizing on the chaos sown by the Islamic Revolution, it surged across the Iranian plains. With such a massive force, it seemed invincible, who could have possibly stood in its way? The advance was rapid. In less than a week, the Iraqi tanks crossed the Karun River and surrounded key cities. The flat topography of Khuzestan favored the armored doctrine. Until the advance stopped. When they tried to enter Khorramshahr, the Iraqi vehicles got stuck in narrow streets and were hunted by Iranian militiamen with grenade launchers (RPGs). This forced Saddam to divert even more troops to the south, turning the place into a meat grinder. Saddam realized he would not be able to take Khuzestan in a rush. He ordered the total siege of Abadan and the street-by-street invasion of Khorramshahr. It was the first major tactical error. Troops and armored vehicles entered dense urban areas and came face to face with young Iranians firing RPG-7s from the tops of buildings. The result was that Iraq took Khorramshahr after 34 days, but at a human cost that broke the morale of the armored divisions. With the Iraqi momentum exhausted, the southern front turned into a “World War I in the desert.” In May 1982, Iran surrounded and captured 19,000 Iraqi soldiers in Khorramshahr. In 1980, small groups of Iranian soldiers and Kurdish militias used the caves and fissures of the mountains to fire anti-tank missiles from top to bottom. Approximately 20,000 to 30,000 Iraqis were killed on the southern front alone until 1982, and a large part of the tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed or abandoned. On the Northern and Central Axis, it was a mountain war. Iraq advanced to the foothills of the Zagros, but was again halted by numerous Iranian positions in that mountain range. Today the situation is very similar: Iran does not try to hold the border; it lets the enemy enter, because it knows it will have protected positions in the mountains to establish a war of attrition. At this moment, a CSG with about 5,000 marines is on its way to the region, where it should join Israeli troops to attempt an operation to liberate the Strait of Hormuz and take Kharg Island. Even if this force carried out the land invasion, where would it shelter? In the same plain that became hell for the Iraqis, or in the short strip of flat land that exists at some points of Hormuz? And another question: where will this troop group up in the face of Iranian missiles and drones? In any point of the Iranian Gulf lands where there might be success in its occupation, there will be positions in the mountains, drones and missiles hitting that occupation to the point of causing many casualties. Just as the US-Israel sees a chance of occupation on Kharg Island, Saddam also saw it in Khuzestan. In Iran, when the land is flat, it is also surrounded by positions in the mountains and ositions fortified with Iranian UHPC. To get an idea of the Iranian fortifications, while the high-strength concrete of the USA revolves around 100-150 MPa (megapascals), Iran regularly produces concrete of 200 to 400 MPa. If the GBU-57 bombs cannot penetrate a few meters of UHPC that protect the entrances of the mountains of the nuclear installations, the surgical bombing with GBU-72, which weigh only 20% of the GBU-57, and occurred in the last days in the mountains of the strait, is a myth. Putting feet on the ground in Iran would require a force that the United States today is incapable of mobilizing.
Patricia Marins tweet media
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Watson2314
Watson2314@WatsonsOptions·
@kpak82 KPAK YOU SOB! You did it again with PLTR! NAILED THE TELEGRAM LAST NIGHT TOO!!!!! GANGSTER! TOTAL GANGSTER! 😍😍😍🥰🥰🥰
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TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want
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Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, two weeks later. Moreover,
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