Daniel Wefer

23 posts

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Daniel Wefer

Daniel Wefer

@WeferWX

NIU '26. Storms are cool.

DeKalb, IL Katılım Mayıs 2021
289 Takip Edilen51 Takipçiler
Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@GraceCWeather Very cool! I'd love to know some more details. What type of ML algorithm does it use, and what are the datasets its trained on?
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@CameronJNixon Really cool seeing some of the seasonality of different regions on these soundings. Dixie alley is all early season HSLC setups, and the upper plains are all summertime modest shear cape bombs
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Cameron Nixon
Cameron Nixon@CameronJNixon·
Anyway here's a map of all EF2+ tornado soundings for select locations across the U.S.
Cameron Nixon tweet media
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maybe: k*rk
maybe: k*rk@oldscarf1stweek·
Officially in May Range on the CFS chicken cutlets. Tornado season so far is cancelled but could return any day.
maybe: k*rk tweet media
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@ConvChronicles In my experience, lid strength, storm mode, and anchoring bias are nearly always to blame for forecast busts. With how many CAMs we have, it's extremely easy to hyperfocus on solutions that agree with you after the initial forecast is made.
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Convective Chronicles
Convective Chronicles@ConvChronicles·
Quick breakdown of a few of the meteorological factors that may have allowed today's Moderate Risk severe weather outbreak across the East Coast to underperform.
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@DCAreaWx IMO the lack of a capping inversion/EML wasn't considered nearly enough prior to this event. With as strong of synoptics as were present, a substantial warm nose would've been needed to prevent overconvection in the warm sector.
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Nikhil Trivedi
Nikhil Trivedi@DCAreaWx·
...along with the potential for lingering convection from a severe threat the day prior, created a legitmate failmode of prematurely killing the already marginal instability. This is something which I need to consider more strongly in the future for improved messaging. (2/2)
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Nikhil Trivedi
Nikhil Trivedi@DCAreaWx·
Hindsight is always 20/20, but today's underwhelming severe weather is a good reminder to me to consider the thermodynamics of an event, even in the face of high-end dynamics. Strong synoptic ascent driven by an intense upstream trough in an uncapped environment,... (1/2)
Nikhil Trivedi tweet mediaNikhil Trivedi tweet media
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@a_guidarelli I got stuck south of carbondale because of bad road options💔💔💔. Saw nothing but a wall cloud
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NaderMike
NaderMike@TeamGodsFinger·
Does anyone know how to get old forecast model runs? Working on a march 6th, 10th video. #wxtwitter
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@MatthewCappucci From the south it was a visible stovepipe for around a minute before it went fully rain wrapped.
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Matthew Cappucci
Matthew Cappucci@MatthewCappucci·
Fellow chasers — how long was Kankakee a stovepipe? I was only about a half mile to a mile behind it and had a massive rotating cylinder that I at first thought was a ground-scraping meso, but evidently it was the tornado?
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@VORTEXJeff This was one of my main reasons to stay with it. Lack of better options and warm + heavily backed winds at the Kankakee ASOS were what kept me east.
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Jeff Frame
Jeff Frame@VORTEXJeff·
Leaving the storm would have meant driving home since I wouldn't have reached the western storms until sunset and I *DO NOT* chase after dark. Thus, I likely would have followed the storm to I-57, my quickest way home, and obviously stayed with it afterward. 2/2
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Jeff Frame
Jeff Frame@VORTEXJeff·
I couldn't chase Tuesday, but I've been asked several times if I would have hypothetically stayed with the Kankakee storm. I wasn't actively decision making as the storm was ongoing, but my answer is that I likely would have stayed with it. 1/2
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Matthew Cappucci
Matthew Cappucci@MatthewCappucci·
@WxGabe Agreed. One of my biggest regrets of my life to date is falling behind to collect hail. I was like 7 minutes too late. 🥲
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Matthew Cappucci
Matthew Cappucci@MatthewCappucci·
Not my best capture, but it was dark. Anyway, here’s the Lake Village, Indiana tornado… though I was just south of it, I had to keep asking myself “that’s the tornado, right?” because of how enormous it was. I was behind it in Kankakee as it wedged out and it was huge.
MyRadar Weather@MyRadarWX

This is our photo of the Lake Village, Indiana tornado — apparently the same that began in Kankakee, Illinois. It was on the ground for 1 hour 21 minutes, killed two people and tracked at least 36.6 miles.

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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@oldscarf1stweek If there had been a single rotating storm within 30 miles I would’ve 100% bailed. Glad I didn’t
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maybe: k*rk
maybe: k*rk@oldscarf1stweek·
This is what Kankakee looked liked 40 minutes before it wedged out. Surface observations/parameter space will take precedent over the visual cues. What a tricky day for experienced chasers.
Ian Shiery@eagles_fan_05

@GKellerwx some nice structure just west of Reading from that dying supercell!

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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@Sawyer_WX @gensiniwx conduction on the contact layer. Sun bakes the surface and the air touching the surface warms more rapidly than the air above it.
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Sawyer Delatte
Sawyer Delatte@Sawyer_WX·
@gensiniwx Absurd amounts of cooling just above the surface. What do you think was the cause of this?
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@CRyanMauk A big fear of mine is a chaser pulling someone out of wreckage, not realizing they had a spinal issue that needed to be stabilized.
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☈ʏᴀɴ ᴍᴀᴜᴋ, sᴛᴏʀᴍ ᴄʜᴀsᴇʀ
I don’t think it’s a storm chasers’ responsibility to stop and sift through wreckage to “save lives“. I think people expecting that they would do such a thing is just as ridiculous as people saying they’re chasing to “save lives”. I think it largely comes from misplaced grief. Which is understandable. But it is shooting the messenger.
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@ContentWxGuy The natural land is pretty much already gone in IL/IN. All I’ve seen solar farms replace are corn ethanol farms, which are MUCH worse for the environment.
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Chris Wicklund
Chris Wicklund@WickyDubs2·
I’m sorry I probably tweeted and retweeted 1000 times today
GIF
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@skydrama I was next to you at the Wally’s! Didn’t end up seeing the Pontiac tor, just saw the wall cloud. Kept following the storm despite its elevated appearance out of a lack of better options. Caught up to it SE of Kankakee and got a nice stovepipe at aroma park
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Andrew Pritchard
Andrew Pritchard@skydrama·
I too, observed the Pontiac, IL tornado after getting on the storm at initiation, only to leave it as it wandered over to the cold side of the boundary and back, to resume producing tornadoes from Kankakee into IN. Will recap tomorrow. Some lightning from round two after dark:
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
@Emokwx It was those SE winds out of kankakee that kept me on it. Looked awful for a while there
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Ethan Mok
Ethan Mok@Emokwx·
Idk how many times I gotta learn this lesson. Bailed way too early as it started to look like shit near the boundary. Regretted that big time but at least I got this picture of the storm with McDonalds arches 👍
Ethan Mok tweet mediaEthan Mok tweet media
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Daniel Wefer
Daniel Wefer@WeferWX·
Large tornado near Aroma Park IL around 18:27. Has since become a rain wrapped wedge @NWSChicago
Daniel Wefer tweet media
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