TraderX

@WaxMetrix It's not hard to find the connection between Topps' good releases vs their bad releases. Soccer = no exclusive license = great release to compete against Panini products. Baseball/basketball = exclusive license, monopoly no incentive to compete on quality.

2025/26 Topps Chrome UEFA Club Competitions Analysis & Deep Dive In a refreshing change of pace, we’ve got ourselves a real product today. Full odds sheet. No missing chunks. No “trust me bro” math required. Just numbers, structure, and something actually worth digging into. If you caught the last one…yeah. The McDonald’s All-American Chrome “analysis.” That wasn’t analysis. That was me trying to build a house with half a toolbox and three missing walls. We move on. No excuses, just better work. Because this? This is redemption season. Brace yourself, this one has layers. And they all need addressed. This isn’t a 30-second walk-into-the-grocery-store read. This is a full-blown, sitting-on-the-throne deep dive. Because this release deserves the full Squatch treatment. As much as I hate to sound like a broken record, there is a definitive trend here, and it goes something like- soccer release...good, baseball/basketball release...questionable. Topps’ soccer team is on a heater right now. Quietly, consistently, just stacking Ws while the other departments are out here submitting odds sheets like they just copied someone else’s homework five minutes before class. Case in point- MLS Chrome. One of the most recent soccer releases, from a product dynamics standpoint, just happened to be one of the best values of the year. Of course, it quickly doubled from release day pricing. It currently rests at ~$225/hobby, which is still not terrible considering what those boxes are producing. Maybe the checklist isn't the deepest, but it's still solid with some nuke potential. If MLS Chrome were a baseball release, it would be $800/box. Now we get Topps’ flagship Chrome soccer release… and the biggest Chrome soccer drop of the year. Welcome to 2025/26 UCC Chrome. Part 1: Odds Sheet Autopsy Not only do we get the usual meat-and-potatoes formats, Topps piled on the gravy with Sapphire, Logofractor, and the wildcard Fanatics Fest format. And they all deserve some attention. Total cards in product: 27,741,961 Total Sapphire: 328,800 cards I know I'm slacking, but I don't have last year's UCC Chrome production to compare, so instead let's compare to other recent soccer releases: 2025/26 Topps UCC Flagship (non-chrome): 57.67m 2026 Topps Chrome Premier League: 16.46m 2024/25 Topps Merlin UCC: 11.37m 2026 Topps Chrome MLS: 6.8m As expected, since this is the Flagship Chrome release of the year, production is about half of the corresponding flagship paper release, but firmly ahead of other recent Chrome releases. Total production by format: Hobby- 110,364 boxes (9,197 cases) Jumbo- 26,360 boxes (3,295 cases) Value- 272,640 boxes (6,816 cases) Breaker's Delight- 16,074 boxes (2,679 cases) Hangers- 99,200 boxes (1,550 cases) Megas- 132,270 boxes (6,614 cases) First Day Issue- 1,068 boxes (89 cases) Fanatics Fest NYC- 2,700 boxes (225 cases) Logofractor- 30,200 boxes (1,510 cases) Sapphire- 10,275 boxes (1,028 cases) Things to note: 1) Only Mega SKU listed is Mega CEE. Typically this is referring to the European sales channel. This delineation is always one of the more confusing aspects of Topps odds sheets (SE vs EA vs CEE). It will be interesting to see if we get distribution of UCC Chrome Megas stateside or if those are reserved for European markets only. 2) There is a small Japanese market SKU called Hongbao, which I'm not including in totals. Details are non-existent, but I don't believe it includes any base. It appears to be a small, 1-pack box containing only exclusive parallels, some numbered to /9 & /8, and intermittent autos. With only 3,360 packs produced, if there is base it's not much so exclusion will not materially affect numbers. 3) This is the first time since 2024 that we've seen the veil lifted on a Fanatics Fest product. Looks to be hobby format with typical additions, so assuming 12 boxes/case. This would mean only 225 cases produced. I'll get into box dynamics momentarily, but these look pretty stacked and will certainly be very popular. 4) I've seen no rendering for Hangers as of yet. So I'm assuming 15 cards like last year's UCC Chrome. NBA Chrome Hangers had 15 cards as well, but NFL Chrome Hangers contain 20, so I suppose there's a chance these could also contain 20 cards. If so, the only numbers affected will be a small amount on base calculations. Parallels, etc will are static either way. Part 2: What's in the Box Hit Rates by format: Hobby- 1 auto, 13.9 parallels, 9.5 inserts, 3 numbered cards Jumbo- 3 autos, 17 parallels, 11.2 inserts, 4.2 numbered cards Value Boxes- 1 auto per 19 boxes (~2 per case), 5.5 parallels, 3 inserts, 1 numbered card Breaker's Delight- 2 autos, 8.5 parallels, 1.4 inserts, 2.7 numbered cards Hangers- 1 auto per 62.3 boxes (~1 per case), 2.4 parallels, 1.5 inserts, 0.4 numbered cards (1 per 2.5 boxes) Megas- 1 auto per 7.5 boxes (2.67 per case), 13 parallels, 5.9 inserts, 1.3 numbered cards First Day Issue- 1.34 autos, 16.8 parallels, 9.5 inserts, 6 numbered cards Fanatics Fest Hobby boxes- 1 auto, 19.6 parallels, 10.5 inserts, 3.8 numbered cards Logofractor- 1 auto per 2 boxes (~10 per case), 2.45 parallels (not including base Logofractor), 3.7 inserts, 2.15 numbered cards Sapphire- 1.1 autos, 4.7 parallels, 0.4 inserts, 4.7 numbered cards (all Green /99 or better) Part 3: Value Map Some prices known, some estimated. Delight not included as they typically are not available to the public. Values based on following pricing: Hobby- $209 Jumbo- $400 (est) Value box- $30 Hanger- $20 Logofractor- $150 (est) Mega- $60 (est) FDI- $800 (doesn't really matter. I believe the Dutch Auction ended at $770, but this is not the cheapest format for anything so it's immaterial.) Fanatics Fest- $300 (Total guess because I had to put a number on it for comparison sake. These are always higher than regular Hobby MSRP.) $/card: 1) Value box- $1.07 2) Hanger- $1.33 3) Mega- $1.43 4) Hobby- $2.61 5) Jumbo- $3.03 $/parallel: 1) Mega- $4.62 2) Value box- $5.49 3) Hanger- $8.47 4) Hobby- $15.09 5) Jumbo- $23.53 $/auto: 1) Jumbo- $133.33 2) Hobby- $209 3) Logofractor- $283.02 4) Fanatics Fest- $300 5) Mega- $447.60 6) Value Box- $567 $/# card: 1) Value box- $30 2) Mega- $45.80 3) Hanger- $51.28 4) Hobby- $69.67 5) Logofractor- $70.09 Part 4: Format Showdown This is one of the more well-rounded products I can remember analyzing. I can't really trash any format because they all perform well in their own lane. Hobby- Best for chasing parallels and certain autos. Though it appears to be well behind retail SKUs in $/parallel, there are a lot of parallels in hobby that aren't pullable from retail. Almost 14 parallels/box is solid, but keep in mind ~11 of those will consist of Base Refractors and Prisms. Jumbo- Just behind Hobby for overall parallel chasing, yielding ~17 parallels/box, though 12 of those should be Base Refractors and Prisms. But that still leaves 4-5 numbered parallels/box. Per usual, where Jumbo shines is Auto chasing. UCC Chrome doesn’t leave retail buyers stranded. Value Boxes and Megas are both strong $/parallel plays. Value Boxes should produce ~5.5 parallels per box, ~4.5 of those being Base Refractors plus a RayWave, leaving roughly 1 numbered card per box. That’s actually solid for a format that’s been a throwaway in a lot of recent releases. They’re also strong for chasing insert parallels. Megas push even harder, with ~13 parallels per box, with 10 of those being X-Fractors. There’s a full rainbow of X-Fractor variants exclusive to Megas, which helps their cause considerably. They also hold their own with Value Boxes when it comes to insert parallels. Overall, Hangers are easily the "weakest" of the 3 retail formats. They do have 2 Pulsars/box, which are certainly not overproduced. But the only other base parallels pullable from Hangers are Mini Diamonds, for which they lag behind Value boxes in all the variants. For Insert parallels, Hangers are just as strong as Values & Megas, but they are lousy for Autos. Probaby the biggest detractor for Hangers, and the reason they are comfortably last on the list, is there is no chance to pull any desirable rare inserts from them. There is an extensive list of really good to great rare inserts in this product. Even Values & Megas give you the opportunity to pull a majority of them. But not Hangers. Zero chance. You may still see prices of Hangers increasing because the average person may not know this. But don't fall for it. This is the only SKU I would pass on in favor of other retail formats. That brings us to the real fun stuff. Fanatics Fest Exclusive Boxes- I’m usually a fan of the FFNYC exclusives…at least the more mainstream ones. The Travis Scott and higher-end F1 versions are a little more debatable on value. But Flagship and Chrome from the last couple years? Those have been consistently strong. These Chrome boxes will feature the popular Big Apple parallels along with Shooting for the Stars inserts (Swinging for the Stars on the baseball side). You’re getting about 6 extra parallels per box compared to standard Hobby, due to the Big Apple parallels. And make sure to check out the print runs below…they're sneaky low. We’re also getting Shooting for the Stars autos for the first time, which is a cool addition. Base SftS inserts fall one per box, but only come in Red /5 and Superfractor parallels, so those are going to be tough pulls. Baseball had Orange /25 and Black /10, which I actually prefer from a chase standpoint, but this will still play. I’d expect pricing in the $300–$350 range, likely locked behind a raffle with strict limits. If you get a shot at these, take it. Even if soccer isn’t your lane, these should be highly flippable. Logofractor – I’ve never been shy about my love for Logofractor SKUs. The parallels look great, they grade well, and historically they’ve been relatively affordable with a healthy dose of color. That said, Topps absolutely nuked the baseball version the last couple years. The 2025 iteration was a full-blown dumpster fire. But on paper, UCC Chrome Logofractor looks more like the earlier releases…back when it was actually good. You should be averaging 2-3 parallels/box, and there’s an abnormal amount of Logo-exclusive inserts showing up per box. Autos, branded under the incredible “Starballs” name, fall roughly every other box, which is a more favorable rate than we typically see in Logofractor. There is some weirdness, though. The Chrome Legends “Starball” autos don’t quite add up. Based on the odds, there are 104 Rose Gold 1/1s, despite the Legends checklist being only 65 subjects in other formats. If anything, Logofractor auto checklists are usually smaller, not larger. Odds could definitely be wrong, though. That’s one I’ll be watching closely as more data surfaces on the format. Bottom line, Logofractor boxes look like a solid buy. I sincerely hope they're not $150+ and/or Fanatics London Store exclusive like we've seen with other recent releases, though I have a feeling that's quite possible. Sapphire is Sapphire. Always a fan favorite, this one looks to be on par with the more friendly Sapphire releases, especially if they release at an equally friendly price point like MLS Chrome Sapphire did. An auto per box, a nice SP insert in every third box, and a whopping 4.6 parallels per box, all Green /99 or better. If you're a fan of Sapphire, there is nothing to dislike about this one. Part 5: What Would the Squatch Do? First, the Squatch would start with the checklist. There are people who live and breathe that side far more than I do. But even a quick glance at paper UCC Flagship tells you what you need to know…there are a lot of names showing up at the top of sales. That usually doesn’t happen unless the checklist has serious depth. There is also a laundry list of desirable rare inserts sprinkled throughout this product, which helps immensely from a chase perspective. You can check the names and print runs on these below. From there, it gets pretty simple. No matter what your angle is, I think it will be hard to miss with this one. For context, paper UCC Flagship Hobby, a clearly less desirable product, is sitting around ~$200/box on the secondary market. Chrome isn’t staying at $210 for long. It will be $300/hobby in short order. Rip it (for fun, not profit). Flip it. Sit on it. Pick your lane, you’re probably getting paid somewhere. At entry price, I wouldn’t hesitate on almost any format. All the hobby formats, including Logofractor, Fanatics Fest, and Sapphire will do fine. I could even see retail being a solid play since the only ones I see available from last year are well over what they were at release. Even the bottom of the barrel Hangers may increase in price due to people not knowing the product intimately. But you do, so I probably wouldn't play in those waters. Hangers are the only format I recommend avoiding if you care about significant hit potential. This is one of those rare releases where the math, the checklist (presumably), and the market are all pointing the same direction. Don’t overthink it. Part 6: Hidden Values No One Will Be Talking About This is where things get even more interesting. These are calculated directly from the published odds. Some of this may correct as more info comes out, but based on what we have today, there are a few spots that stand out (make of these what you will): 1) Base Logofractor: Sneaky low at ~500 copies each. That’s a lot tighter than people will assume. 2) “Bionic” Inserts (Value Boxes only): Extremely scarce at ~20 copies each. These are going to fly under the radar early. 3) Geometric Parallels & Autos: Base Geometrics show ~245 copies each. More interesting…Geometric Autos across the board appear much tougher than their serial numbers suggest. If the checklist size holds, pop counts on these should stay abnormally low. 4) Sapphire Legends Autos (Gold/Orange): Golds are tracking closer to ~5 copies each (not /50) Oranges ~11 each (not /25). That’s a massive gap between perceived vs actual pull rate. The same goes for Base Sapphire Chrome Autos and their corresponding parallels all the way down to Orange /25. Base Autos are showing ~14 copies ea inserted. Green, Purple, Gold, and Orange are all showing significantly reduced auto insertion in relation to their serial numbers. 5) Chrome Dual Autos: Base versions show ~6 copies each, which is insanely scarce. Even the Orange (~/25) are only tracking ~8 copies of each inserted. 6) Road to Glory Autos (Green /99): These show closer to ~30 copies inserted. That makes them harder to hit than Purples /75 and even Golds /50. 7) Sapphire Selections Autos (Base vs Black /10): Both are showing identical odds. Meaning the “base” version is effectively just as rare as the /10s. Part 7: Print Runs Base print runs: Chrome- ~102,550 ea Logofractor- ~500 ea Sapphire- ~1,335 ea Unnumbered parallels: Base Refractors- ~7,360 ea Negative (Hobby Formats)- ~370 ea Raywave (Value)- ~4,770 ea Pulsar (Hanger)- ~1,000 ea Xfractor (Mega)- ~6,615 ea Geometric (Delight)- ~245 ea Prism (Hobby Formats)- ~3,075 ea Logofractor Night Vision Starball Refractor- ~200 ea Big Apple FFNYC Variation- ~270 ea Unnumbered Inserts: Wonderkids (20 card CL)- ~32,650 ea Silenced (10 card CL)- ~35,270 ea Power Players (35 card CL)- ~33,205 ea Bowman UEFA Youth League (11 card CL)- ~34,300 ea Last Dance (14 card CL)- ~34,900 ea Bionic (5 card CL- Value Box)- ~20 ea Radiating Rookies (15 card CL- Hobby Formats + Value & Mega)- ~360 ea Youthquake (15 card CL- Delight)- ~1,075 ea Anime (7 card CL- Hobby Formats + Value & Mega)- ~190 ea Metaverse (14 card CL- Mega Box exclusive)- ~475 ea Helix (10 card CL- Hobby formats)- ~95 ea Shadow Etch (20 card CL- Hobby formats + Value & Mega)- ~325 ea Veni Vidi Vici (5 card CL- Hobby formats + Value + Mega)- ~210 ea Budapest At Night (10 card CL- Hobby only)- ~50 ea Ultra Violet (20 card CL- Hobby formats + Value & Mega)- ~260 ea The Grail G1 (2 card CL- Hobby only)- ~17 ea The Grail G3 (2 card CL- Hobby only)- ~37 ea Starball Legends (20 card CL- Logofractor)- ~755 ea Sapphire Selections (15 card CL)- ~140 ea Infinite (10 card CL- Sapphire)- ~105 ea Shooting for the Stars (25 card CL- FFNYC)- ~110 ea Wonderkids Logofractor (20 card CL)- ~1,510 ea Silenced Logofractor (20 card CL)- ~755 ea Power Players Logofractor (40 card CL)- ~755 ea Unnumbered Autos: Base Chrome Autos (108 card CL)- ~280 ea Base Chrome Autos Geometric (Delight)- ~14 ea Base Sapphire Autos (85 card CL)- ~14 ea Starball Bases Autos (108 card CL- Logofractor)- ~20 ea Base Future Stars Autos (6 card CL)- ~500 ea Base Chrome Dual Autos (26 card CL)- ~6 ea Base Chrome Triple Autos (14 card CL)- ~12 ea Base Black Lazer Autos (45 card CL- Jumbo Exclusive)- ~310 ea Global Attraction Autos Base (24 card CL- Delight)- ~50 ea Sapphire Selections Autos Base (15 card CL)- ~7 ea Shooting for the Stars Autos (20 card CL- FFNYC)- ~25 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsChromeUEFAClubCompetitions

@RoblerRun @notgaetti Then something doesn’t add up

@Whatup_wit_that @notgaetti It knows exactly where the cf started

65% catch probability on this nuclear missile is absolutely insane. Who looks at this batted ball and thinks “yeah, that gets caught more often than not, probably about 2/3 of the time”??

@BobSnowdude @notgaetti What matters is where the CF started, his jump, and the route. Without seeing the CF in the frame when the ball is hit, it’s impossible to tell. But 65% seems pretty crazy.

@Whatup_wit_that @notgaetti Straight away center is 420 at Fenway.

@RoblerRun @notgaetti so it takes into account ballpark, positioning, who is playing CF, etc?

@Whatup_wit_that @notgaetti that not how it works

@phillieshypeman @Ozzie771 @CardPurchaser @Topps walmart.com/ip/19312403801…

@Ozzie771 @CardPurchaser @Topps I have never found a single damn box

Thought I would give Topps Celebration a try. Was a fan of the big heads last year. One big hit! @CardPurchaser @Topps

@James25012501 @CardPurchaser Holy cow. That might be the best two blaster rip I’ve ever seen of series 1 and Heritage.

I have always wanted to post a pic of the boxes I just bought and the hits. Alas, I do not have the self control to wait to take the pic until I have gotten home. So you will just have to trust me that I bought two blasters at Walmart. Hits posted below…@CardPurchaser

@Mike_sill97 @Topps Oh ha, didn’t realize you had already sold it. Congrats.

@Whatup_wit_that @Topps Sold for $4300 within 24 hours

Pulled from @Topps celebrations from Barnes and Noble 😍

@Birdie18th @CardPurchaser Yeah, I didn't say it was worth anything, just unusual.

@Whatup_wit_that @CardPurchaser He's doing this on purpose this is his base card and anyone who has opened Heritage packs has hundreds of them by now here is his image variation as well

@CardPurchaser Notice anything wrong with this 2026 Heritage Andrew McCutchen? Anyone else come across this?

@HJablowmi1234 @Rhinosteel6 @CardPurchaser Yeah, just did some poking around and it looks like the Pirates wear those patches on the right arm as opposed to left arm, which means it's not a reverse negative. Bizarre that McCutchen would do that...

@Rhinosteel6 @Whatup_wit_that @CardPurchaser His cap isn’t backwards so he likely is doing it on purpose.

@Mike_sill97 @Topps Amazing. That Ohtani is an absolute nuke. Like $5k

@Whatup_wit_that @Topps Yes purchased from Barnes and Noble

@indycoltsfan43 @elcompawon @CardPurchaser AYFKM?? I ripped 12 blasters and 5 megas, didn't hit a single Downtown.

@elcompawon @CardPurchaser This is my 3rd DT I’ve hit this year in fat packs. If it’s guaranteed then why aren’t people buying these boxes up for $90 and making profit?

@CardPurchaser about to go downtown hunting. Hits coming soon!

@JasonAmada @WaxMetrix If the demand for NBA cosmic sealed wax and singles is anything like MLB Cosmic has been, these will be hot.

@WaxMetrix You trying for the max EQL allocation for NBA Cosmic?

@WaxMetrix Totally agree. And hey, at least if you don't win, your odds next time increase from .01% to .02%.

@Whatup_wit_that I'm sure my chances are precisely 0.01%, but at least it's a whole lot more peaceful not having to smash buttons and get tossed around a queue for an hour.

@WaxMetrix Good luck! I'm trying, but not holding my breath...

@Whatup_wit_that Yes

@trunkofcards @CardPurchaser It's the best retail format of Series 1 by a good margin, so if you buy flagship retail, Celebration Megas are a definite yes. In many ways they are also better than hobby boxes, but not for autos.

Topps Celebration Worth picking up? 🤷‍♂️ @CardPurchaser