Mandelbrot

$SPCX $SPX Pretty incredible treatment Elon is getting regarding the index inclusion rules (currently making the rounds here); gotta giver him credit, the world does bend on his will… 1. Buy twitter for a stupid price. Doesn’t matter as Twitter debt got rolled into SpaceX and refi'd at half the rate. 2. Twitter on the margin wins Trumps presidency, gets him special access / treatment and even Trump’s support for Tesla stock price when it was $230 in early 25. Special access ensures the IPO / index inclusion rules fall in SpaceX’s favour. 3. Twitter debt now will be paid off with a 100X's sales IPO that everyone is fast-tracked forced to buy. Essentially, he will be the first trillionaire and to big credit of his Twitter acquisition (which was essentially free). Anyway— kudos to him, what I really want to discuss is the following: There is lots of chatter (flip-flopping) with respect to implications of the impending mega IPOs this year… we have gone from: 1: “SpaceX IPO will be the most obvious market topping event”… and as equities march higher many have recently shifted to: 2. “SpaceX IPO would be way too obvious of a top, that’s too easy”… I think you just play somewhere in the middle of those two conclusions. I think over the next two months sentiment will shift between 1. And 2. Three times over. It’s somewhat ironic that the IPOs (and Iran & Mid terms) were a good reason to sit back and take it easy for 2026, and now everyone is forced to stop back in, chase, and lever up in the IPO. It’s this behaviour that will result in the oscillating behaviour between 1. And 2. IMO We’re pretty much blowing out every record possible during this historic rally, COR1M, skew, put-call ratio, etc. One scenario I have in mind is a repeat of July 2024 (Yen Carry Trade Unwind). We ended up seeing a -10% drawdown over 20 days, and we weren’t making new ATHs until the Fall when Trump won the election. What draws me to this is implied correlation is lowest it’s ever been on record, only July 24 has been lower. It could look like this: 1. Profit taking days in advance of the June IPO, and initial continuation post-IPO (“holy shit maybe it’s actually the top, time to sell”). 2. We start marching back higher again into July, making new highs and the chase continues (“nvm that wasn’t the top, too obvious of course, time to rebuy!”). 3. Everyone feels like a genius for a week, then index inclusion hits (which is fast tracked into July), among likely unrelated catalyst(s) and we put in our first real drawdown (7-10%) of this rally out of March 30th (“ok that was stupid of me to chase and rebuy on an obvious market topping event”). 4. The correction wraps up, positioning (the leveraged, extreme chase /speculative type) is cleaned up and we begin marching higher. Who really knows… I think the big takeaway is to expect our first real bout of volatility over the next two months, and risk of getting chopped up is high, but it also doesn’t mean it’s the intergalactic top either.

@PauloMacro LIT? @Evan_ss6

The hallucinations with this will be fuking LIT

$HYPE I wanted a little more out of HYPE to run back the same 50-day fakeout, but I guess we’ll just monitor today’s daily as it bumps up against trend

Industry is healing

@PlutonicXBT @50ptMAE ngl I’ll be pissed if I didn’t catch the pico low there at 3.4 lol

@Wild_Randomness @50ptMAE Wyd when COR1M hits 2 😉

Theres certain furus on here, that will say cor1m under 8 means imminent vol spike, that makes no sense. Everyone wants the easy way out, a be-all indicator that means go long/short if the number is +/- X. There are no shortcuts in trading. The real answer no one wants to hear is its regime dependent. Right now the AI corps are taking out huge risk by way of capex or debt, for potentially huge rewards or huge failures. That means a wider distribution of outcomes. That means structurally higher vol. How can you argue a shampoo company or fast food restaurant, or airplane manufacturer deserves that same vol? Their earnings are much more predictable, narrower path of distributions, and should be structurally lower vol. Lower implied correlations is exactly where the market should be realizing, and is not in and of itself anything nefarious

@KaneCapz Haha we’ll see man I still have Korea and some select semis longs for stronger reversion, among other long term holds But also cognizant that hedges are cheap as fk and upside (through SPX 7700) would be so much easier to achieve if we just washed out this positioning

@Wild_Randomness damn bro top in already? Weak

Ok that tracked… - cold cpi - Warsh still not convinced - SPY exact same bounce as 06/04 - NQ tested 30 What followed after 06/04 is definitely not my base case lol

Haven’t seen a weekly close above trend since alt season began It’s a big week

$NVDA Bought some August puts Probably dumb, but this stock is the king of “chart looks good today = chart looks bad tomorrow”, which is probably why my schizo self is so good at trading it lol It’s a small position, and will add on additional pops this week but no interest in holding if the weekly closes above 215

Yeah I think anything above 7 is noise, but over the past 10 months any trip below has been quickly met with index vol Doesn’t mean one can buy 7dte puts and print but it is a decent signal to ease off the leveraged longs and have cash to put to work One additional factor this time in like the others is COR3M which is now in deep July 2024 territory (along with COR1M) N=1 sample size territory now

Yeah I agree with you too— it’s been a trap so far and it has been acting different. If someone bought puts for a swing when it entered the lower bound… well they have been bleeding out for weeks I do think this thing is quite stretched though, but cognizant of timing risks (hence the core position for September)

@Wild_Randomness I actually agree with you we will see a vol spike soon But i think correlations have already been proven to be a weak signal, people (not you) have been calling for an imminent correction ever since it broke into double digits its now 3

@PlutonicXBT What if we’re topping now

Anyway blowoff top on banks coming next

Based on the look of US financials, there’s a non-zero chance that over the next 12-18 months we’re about to witness the greatest melt-up in the history of risk assets The top of the everything bubble, followed by a multi-decade period of deflation

Mattering for now…

$LIT Pretty schizo PA They ran the same playbook from the previous week, makes me a little concerned tbh POC is a big pivot here…

@WBigbucks I’m expecting 39-40 on iBit but only if this level breaks I’m personally TP’d

@Wild_Randomness Are you expecting 70-73k area then lower again ? Cav had a nice post on it

$BTC $IBIT Show me what you got (Big pivot)

@lord_fed Level to level me matey

@Wild_Randomness We shall see sir

Bought some puts, no further comment lordfed.co.uk/p/i-have-start…

$BTC $IBIT Thinking $36 to $37

@ezcontra Yeah I’m prepared to stomach / add into that scenario Would be pretty classic topping pattern to poke its head above briefly