William Ellis

Our fiscal framework actively discourages that kind of investment, because over a 5-year horizon it only shows up as a cost. A long-term view of the public finances shouldn't be a niche annual OBR publication. It should shape how we actually make fiscal decisions. (4/4)

The OBR is clear that acting early is far cheaper than acting late. We agree — but that doesn't just mean tax rises and spending cuts. Investing in preventative health, productivity and climate resilience can shrink these future costs before they arrive. (3/4)

The OBR published its 50-year projections for the public finances today. Stable this decade, then increasingly unsustainable as the costs of ageing, health and weak productivity build. It'll be overshadowed by NATO coverage — here's why it shouldn't be: 🧵 (1/4)

The next chapter of Labour starts now. But there will be things a new leader cannot overcome, such as limits on the UK’s ability to borrow more and limited public appetite for higher taxation. However, there is an opportunity for a new leader to set out a clearer story of change, to make the case for a bolder reforming agenda and to reset the relationship with the public. Andy Burnham’s record in Manchester shows the potential of a more confident, reforming approach to politics. He won in Makerfield with a powerful coalition, but running against the government is easier than running as the government. This will be a much more challenging task.

🤖 | NEW REPORT: AI is reshaping work, and too often workers are paying the price. In this new paper, @evansjoseph_ sets out a new generation of worker rights so AI works for people, not just profits. Read more here 👇 ippr.org/articles/strik…

Going further isn't the expensive choice — leaving the rest to interest rates is. Ministers should act. See our recently published report for detailed analysis on the Iran crisis: ippr.org/articles/price…

There's a better option: 🔹 A temporary £2,000 limit on energy bills, kicking in only if Ofgem's next cap would push them above it 🔹 An immediate 10p fuel duty cut If permanent damage is avoided, the Treasury could actually end up saving up to £10bn a year versus inaction.

GDP grew 0.6% in March — better than feared, but don't get comfortable. The Iran shock barely shows up in this data. The real damage is still coming, and leaving it to the Bank of England is the wrong response. 🧵👇

Huge news for the UK industrial strategy, and the Clean Power sector plan – Vestas has announced a major new wind turbine manufacturing investment in Scotland. It’s particularly significant since this facility will produce nacelles, the most valuable component of a wind turbine.

Government should be prepared to act on prices directly if energy markets spiral further - whether through capping costs or other fiscal interventions. And it should speed up the rollout of renewables to reduce our exposure before the next shock hits.

Brent crude has surged from around $70 to $95 - feeding directly into petrol prices, energy bills, and the price of the weekly shop as business costs increase. As long as we're heavily dependent on fossil fuels, we're exposed to exactly this kind of crisis.

CPI held steady at 3% in February — as lower motor fuel costs were offset by higher core goods prices. But today's figures are a snapshot of the world before Trump's conflict in the Middle East. The real story is what's coming next. 🧵

Borrowing outlook is effectively unchanged - though OBR forecasts have clearly been overtaken by events and market movements. If nothing else, this shows why finely calibrating policy in response to forecast movements is stupid. Reeves deserves credit for making this a non-event.

With inflation easing faster and growth weaker, holding rates too high for too long risks unnecessary damage. The Bank of England should halt active gilt sales (similar to FED, ECB), and cut rates further and faster to stop inflation falling below target and support growth.

The Bank has also downgraded growth. It expects budget measures to lift growth near term (+0.2% at peak in 2027/28), but that’s offset by labour market weakness and BoE agents reporting subdued activity. Chart: pre- vs post-budget 👇

Markets weren’t surprised the Bank of England held rates today. But the backdrop has shifted: the Bank has cut its inflation and growth forecast, strengthening the case for earlier rate cuts to support the economy while keeping inflation on target. #BoE #UKeconomy 🧵