Pranesh Narayanan

NEW: Chancellor announces three major themes for a new growth strategy at a Mais lecture in a fortnight: 1. Stronger post Brexit trade relations with EU 2. Backing innovation and AI 3. Transforming UK economic geography/ regional & city growth Setting up high expectations for a policy heavy growth strategy.

🇬🇧🏠 We purchased a modest little townhouse in Fulham many moons ago, back when you could still get change from a half a million quid in SW6. Fast forward to 2025 and it now scrapes the £2m mark, literally the borderline where Labour’s threatened “mansion tax” starts to bite. Our long-term tenant has always flirted with the idea of buying it ... Last week I finally asked if they were serious. Reply came back: “Thanks, but no thanks, don’t fancy being anchored to a £2m+ London property with all the extra taxes looming.” ☹️ So here I am: Can’t raise the rent (Section 21 gone, rent caps maybe on the horizon too - don't rule it out!!) Can’t sell it for what it’s actually worth (buyer pool shrinks the moment you get close to that dreaded £2m threshold). Next year the bank revalues it for the remortgage… fingers crossed they don’t suddenly decide it’s only worth £1.5m (it would not surprise if they do!) and wipe out all of our equity in one stroke! 💡 Lesson of the day: stay well away from buy-to-let, especially single family houses. The golden decade is firmly behind us, the goalposts have been moved, and the taxman is warming up in the tunnel. Anyone want a very expensive, very illiquid brick box in Fulham? No? Thought as much! Here is hoping to better times!

With all the exit tax rumours (whoever briefed them is a fool), some people are claiming that billionaire wealth is immobile so we don't need to worry about capital flight. I thought I'd do some quick research into the UK's wealthiest people, and how mobile their assets are...

This chart makes me laugh each time I see it. While the US with its innovation and free market entrepreneurialism runs ahead, Europe with its bureaucracy, overregulation and left mindset is stuck with industries from the last century. On its way to become an open-air museum.

We’re all trying to find the guys who did this!

Interesting from the Economist: "Public attitudes to the size of the state tend to be thermostatic, with voters saying they want spending to rise after a period of retrenchment and to fall once taxes go up. Britons are on the turn of the cycle: the share wanting both tax and spending cuts last year reached the highest level since 1983, according to the British Social Attitudes survey"

The cost of UK industrial policy is larger than the EU average and almost 50% more than Canada. The IMF’s latest report warns about serious fiscal costs and misallocation when governments try to pick winners. It singles out the UK showing the scale of the cost to our economy.

not enough people are emotionally prepared for if it’s not a bubble

Today's announcements double down on his ideological approach. Installing solar panels on schools and hospitals does save money on bills, but should be financed privately. Getting GB Energy to finance these projects is a waste of scarce taxpayer funds.

I advised Boris to expand offshore wind – but we now need to pause our renewables rollout and scrap the 2030 clean power target. Ed Miliband is wrong. The greatest threat to climate action is not right wing billionaires buying up TV stations. It is expensive electricity. 🧵