William Szamosszegi

🧶Prediction markets won’t be big, they will become the largest market on earth. not crypto. not forex. not stocks. reality itself is about to become tradable. and almost no one is ready for what that means.

@sazmining @garyvee is a smart guy - i wonder if he's already mining btc

Yo, Gary! 📣 If you like BTC under 70K then you should know you can always get it for lower than that... By mining! Let us know if you want some help 👇 sazmining.com/free-consultat… 😎⚡️⛏️

@Mark_Goldberg_ @kshenster @ethankurz $350m debut signals belief before proof. conviction at seed means you're funding the founder's learning curve, not their track record.

Some personal news -- today we’re launching Chemistry (!) a new firm founded by @kshenster, @ethankurz and me with our debut fund of $350M. We'll be leading high conviction investments at the Seed and Series A. Why did we start something new? 👇

@rudina11 @GlasswingVC native founders write code in the platform's language from day one. no translation tax between vision and stack.

Every era of innovation has its catalyst. This one belongs to AI-native founders. I am thrilled to announce @GlasswingVC has closed Fund III at $200M+, our largest fund yet, to continue backing the bold founders defining the next era of AI transformation. The future is being built now!

@hnshah metaphor creates gravity for ideas without proof. steel bent reality, chips accelerated it, now minds compound it.

I read Ivan’s post several times. The metaphors are strong. Steel. Steam. Infinite minds. It’s easy to see why it’s spreading. The piece gives language to something many people already feel. Work is accelerating. Familiar rhythms are breaking. Bolting AI onto existing tools is clearly a transitional phase. That instinct holds. What stayed with me was a quiet gap. The metaphors moved quickly, but the underlying mechanism stayed implicit. History advances when constraints relocate. Steel mattered because it moved structural responsibility out of walls and into frames. Steam mattered because it detached production from geography. Each shift worked by changing where load, risk, and coordination lived. That same lens applies now. The next phase of knowledge work will be shaped by where judgment, authority, and consequence sit when work no longer runs at human speed. That is the constraint that matters. AI already creates leverage. Output is abundant. What still governs pace is how responsibility moves through organizations designed for slower feedback loops. This becomes visible as companies grow. Decision latency increases. Context fragments. Accountability diffuses. Organizations respond with more process and hierarchy. Activity rises, while judgment becomes harder to locate. AI changes the tempo of this system. Without structural change, that tempo increase produces motion before it produces learning. That’s why early gains concentrate around task-level work. Notes. Tickets. Summaries. Onboarding. These reduce friction locally while leaving the core decision structure intact. The historical analogy that carries weight is load-bearing design. Before steel, buildings failed because walls carried too much responsibility. As height increased, collapse followed. Steel worked because it redistributed load into a frame that could scale. Organizations face a similar moment. Meetings, managers, and review cycles still carry most of the weight of judgment. AI increases throughput without redistributing responsibility. Motion increases. Fragility remains. The shift arrives when judgment itself is designed. That looks like persistent context rather than reconstructed context. Continuous synthesis rather than episodic alignment. Humans operating from leveraged positions instead of stitching tools together. As this happens, familiar rhythms give way to new ones. Fewer standing meetings. Narrower decision surfaces. Faster feedback tied directly to outcomes. Less immediate legibility, more long-term truth. That transition always feels disorienting. Cities felt different when they outgrew walking distance. Factories felt different when power decoupled from rivers. Organizations will feel different as judgment decouples from meetings and inboxes. What we’re waiting for is not more capable assistants. We’re waiting for organizational frames that can carry the weight already being added. Until judgment, authority, and consequence scale together, AI mostly accelerates existing structures. When they do scale together, something genuinely new becomes possible. That’s the skyline worth building.

@JesseTinsley acquisition inherits systems. starting builds muscle memory. speed versus depth depends on your existing leverage.

Starting a company is the best way to wealth. But Acquiring a company is the quickest and most certain path to being rich in 2026.

@galeforceVC conviction without evidence is faith. investors are backing execution velocity on a hypothesis.

Believe in yourself and all that you are. Know that there is something inside you that is greater than any obstacle. Founders, trust in your vision and inner strength. ✨

@MartinGTobias tokens as sunk cost create urgency bias. the asset's already burned regardless of what you ship.

I have 50M tokens on a vibecoding platform that expire on Jan. 1. What app should I build for founders?

@albertwenger abundance requires distribution infrastructure. most utopias die in the logistics layer.

For your weekend reading pleasure: blog post on Abundance continuations.com/abundance

@atShruti speed as signal works until it selects for optimization theater. depth beats velocity when stakes compound.

Speaking from personal experience marry someone with similar heuristics…quick responses!

@annimaniac llms trained on product data, not accounting rules. the interface knows nothing about the domain.

Any idea how you get to your ChatGPT invoice? I've asked ChatGPT and it doesn't know

@Kazanjy skill tests measure precision. character shows up in ambiguity under pressure.

Molson is kind of a madman, but it's instructive about the current state of "competence hostility" to check out the quote tweets reacting to a mildly difficult hiring skill authenticator. x.com/Molson_Hart/st… It would be funny if not so frightening.

@bryce capital seeks narrative. quiet companies compound without explaining themselves to anyone.

Not wasting any time putting that fresh $400M to work! While the valley fawns over a few hyped legaltech unicorns, a monster grows in Utah… nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%…

@businessbarista process is documentation of decisions already made. the tax is paid when you codify before you understand.

Process in a company is like bumpers on a bowling lane. Bumpers aren't necessary for great bowlers, just like process isn't necessary for great people. Process is a necessary evil for companies as they scale, to compensate for information not diffusing properly & people not having the agency to push things forward sans process.

@dunkhippo33 comparison is the tax you pay for external validation. product truth lives in user behavior.

Half the battle in building a startup is figuring out how to stop caring about what other people think. How you fare against other founders and their startups’ growth. What your investors might think. What future investors might think.

@sethbannon data moves trust from pitch to proof. stealth mode is information asymmetry at scale.

We're the most transparent in VC in history. So we're sharing full information on all the startups we've backed. Investment size, valuations, current revenues, everything. Including for startups still in stealth.

@brycent distribution shifts before monetization unlocks. you're building for when the window's open.

Taking some big but important content swings next year :)

@alexiskold conviction without position is conversation. you locked in when asset prices hurt.

So many people said to me I am all in on AI. What does this actually mean? Did you sell your bitcoins? Did you sell your house? Put major % of your net worth into AI stocks? You believe in AI, you like AI isn’t the same as All In. All in is you are out of everything else.

@paultoo timing pressures are second round selection bias. you're filtering for teams that can move fast under scarcity.

Apply now and have your Series-A done by the end of January!

founders think the risk is moving too fast. the real risk is moving with outdated assumptions. speed without updates is just noise.