wil

If this turns into a proper crisis: No helicopter money this time, but bazillions in gov deficits

Anyways, here's hoping traffic on the strait resumes really soon

we literally have to wait for shit to hit the fan in Asia so we stop denying reality

we live in some sort of parallel world where numbers on the screen are totally disconnected from physical numbers. that could work last year where a tweet could change things up but now nobody knows what is made up or what's real.

banner btw

Don't Look Up is to the 2020s what The Social Network was to the 2010s, just so right on point about where we're at. I remember many people being almost offended by DLU, just proving the value of the movie

@aidan0x rooting for you

We built a market maker for Trade[XYZ] that anyone can use. It’s only been 1 week, but the response has been surprisingly positive. People are really loving it. Being able to plug into the market without needing a firm, custom infra, or special access is really cool. Turns out, a lot more people want to provide liquidity than most people thought.

After the English conquest in 1763, the Catholic Church became the sole authority in people's lives, and introduced 200 years of social repression to protect people from being assimilated into English and Protestantism.

probably the most unknown part of Québec's history and still explains to this day why the whole English Canada misunderstands QC. I blame the education system.

wasn't meme-ing, investing in energy-intensive projects is probably on the down for a while; and not necessarily just because energy gets more scarce or expensive but because a lot of excess investing capital comes from the middle-east

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

@Rory_Johnston also, ending the conflict is no longer up to him

@Rory_Johnston he'll do price controls and export bans before ending the conflict

I think that a big part of the reason that people still think Trump will be in for the Iran War long haul is that they don’t appreciate how truly, insanely unhinged the energy market is about to get if this doesn’t end soon.

@noble_xyz guys it's time to be honest and stop endlessly delaying a points program that just erodes confidence in your ability to deliver something other than tweets

March 18th is here and we wanted to update you on what’s next for Noble ✨ First, we’ve officially launched Noble’s EVM mainnet in a permissioned environment x.com/noble_xyz/stat…

+8$B of USDC since Feb lows -- seems to be the default choice for capital flight imagine boarding a plane out of Dubai with gold bars yea I think things are going to be fine in the cryptocurrency industry

the problem the greater public is thinking about is the price at the gas pump while that's probably the least relevant risk associated to the current conflict. like in early 2020 when covid was seen as a sickness that would block tourists in asia, it was the least of concerns

It's okay to be a panican

Bob Woodward's book about present time is gonna be fire

5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.

canadian dollar in a really good position in this nightmare scenario