Win Smart, CFA

COMMODITIES DURING -SPANISH FLU/WW1 -GREAT DEPRESSION -WW2 -70s OIL CRISIS -GFC 👇👇👇

The US does not need to bow to Iran’s threats. Every day, the “Hormuz weapon” loses power as American oil production, exports, and alternative routes make the global energy system more resilient. Tehran can rattle the chokepoint, but it can no longer hold the world economy hostage. When a supplier or infrastructure owner stops understanding its position and starts using its initial advantage to damage and blackmail its customers, it is really signing its own death warrant. What looked like dominance becomes a countdown to irrelevance. Graphs via Bloomberg and BNE Intellinews.

If the movie Interstellar was a 10, Project Hail Mary is a

BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, announces an additional massive share buyback authorization worth $80 billion.

POSSIBLE WASHINGTON–TEHRAN DEAL NEARS FINALIZATION Work is underway to finalize the text of a Washington–Tehran agreement, according to Al Hadath sources, with negotiations reportedly advancing in earnest. Sources say a final deal could be announced within hours if Pakistan’s army chief does not travel to Iran, suggesting key diplomatic steps are nearing completion.

Generative AI is being adopted materially faster than the internet was in the 1990s — arguably the fastest major technology adoption curve ever measured. A few of the most cited comparisons: About 2–3 years after ChatGPT launched, generative AI usage reached roughly 40%–55% of U.S. adults, depending on the survey. By comparison, about 3 years after the commercial internet era began, internet adoption was around 30% of U.S. households.

Key points from Q1 2026 earnings season so far: Roughly 84% of companies beat EPS estimates, which is well above historical averages. Earnings growth is tracking around 27%–28% year over year, which would be the strongest quarterly growth since late 2021. Revenue beats have also been unusually strong, with about 81% of companies topping sales estimates.

In a few months, when folks look back at $PCT and say "well where the signs they would have all these massive customers", the signs were here: $MCD #Echobox=1771952608" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">plasticsnews.com/processors/rec… Focused on plastic to plastic solutions for a circular solution and examining how to address EPR laws covering packaging. I wonder who they could possibly get their CLEAR, FDA Approved rPP from for their coffee lids and cold beverage containers? Hint: There is literally only one provider, mechanical ain't clear and chemical is literally banned in New Jersey.

To the goddamn moon $PCT

This is $PCT's year 🚀

Earnings & Valuation

@KobeissiLetter x.com/i/status/20517…

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially rises above 7,400 for the first time in history, now up +17.2% since March 30th. That's now +$10 TRILLION in market cap in 29 trading days.

@unusual_whales x.com/i/status/20517…

BREAKING: Michael Burry says the market today feels like 'the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble'

$PCT: IMHO the company now transitions from science-experiment to real-business. (A first for a recycler) - Backlog filling out - Major Partners - Next Gen plant better/cheaper IMHO $PCT is a Global white-space monopoly w pricing power.

$PCT Operations Record quarter for production, surpassing the prior quarterly high; approximately 10 million pounds of feedstock throughput, also a new quarterly record On-site compounding mechanically complete in April; focused on producing PureFive Choice™ resin for polypropylene (“PP”) film and thermoform applications Ironton Facility turnaround completed ahead of schedule and tracking below budget; incorporated improvement projects targeting higher reliability, production rates, and product quality; product inventory built ahead of the outage to maintain customer shipments Commercial Fifth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth, with continued progress in the application pipeline and branded conversions across multiple product categories Reaffirming 40-50MM lbs. of demand beginning to ramp in Q2/Q3; 20-25MM lbs. of demand beginning to ramp in Q3/Q4 PureFive® resin passed qualification for first P&G application and slated for first pellet delivery in Q2; PureFive® resin passed qualification for second application and expected to ship in 2H 2026; Joint product quality study with P&G showed PureCycle process leads to highest CosPaTox purity rating New Jersey recycled content application is in review with NJ Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP); continue to progress positive discussions with all levels of NJDEP and NJ government

BREAKING: According to our analysis, ~$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a "14-point" deal to end the war. At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news. This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET. At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is "close" to a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran War. By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million. Minutes later, Iran launched the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" and oil prices surged +8%. What just happened?

@Geiger_Capital x.com/i/status/20517…

Stocks literally just go up. This is so easy. We’re all going to retire.

Airlines have cancelled 2mn seats and 12,000 flights in May

#Gold vs. Faith in Central Banks