Winston van Stroong

I've created an #ECDO EOP Telegram notifications channel for daily updates of EOP which is automated to post immediately after USNO updates their finals2000A.daily. Feel free to share. @nobulart @zachariaspro @EthicalSkeptic t.me/ECDO_Polhode

DRIFT is the polar motion observatory and modelling testbed[1] that I have been developing to support my research in this area over the past six weeks. This is an analytical tool first, with a few highly experimental features added on. If its marked experimental, treat it as such and the outputs as curiosities - nothing more. All other results are calculated directly from the cited data sources and are near realtime renditions of what was described in the draft paper. Please read the inline documentation, the repo docs[2], and the underlying paper[3]. DRIFT is not intended to be predictive, but rather to enable new insights into existing data. It is made available without warranty of any sort. The railway app will remain available for as long as the hosting isn't biting my pocket (alternatively, anyone can deploy it locally directly from the github repo). HD desktop display or better recommended. [1] driftdash-production.up.railway.app [2] github.com/nobulart/drift [3] nobulart.com/media/polar.pdf

@TruthFairy131 @elonmusk Do you have a source for that, i first I've heard of it.

@Winston_104 @elonmusk E-karen did I think unless they have bail conditions for social media they can rejoin from what I understand

@TruthFairy131 @elonmusk Elon banned the leading Australian Nationalists from the platform.

@elonmusk And if we don’t stop mass immigration, we will lose it all. 3rd world migrants are moving beyond our major cities now where we have become minorities. Please support the Nationalist movements in the West. We are running out of time to turn this around

@zero_lessons I'll no longer be replying. You're still falling to pejorative, and the presentation of mas movements alone to my response along with multiple em dashes makes me think I'm just talking with AI:

The April 2026 Polar-Motion “Hook” (and the 2020 comparison) The short-term “hook” in IERS polar motion data is real — but the interpretation (“decoupling & degradation in seasonal forcing”, comet/CME links, or 6ka ITPW) is pseudoscientific speculation, not hypothesis testing. Raw IERS Rapid Service / Bulletin A data (x and y in arcseconds): April 2026 hook: • Apr 24: x = 0.15256″ y = 0.41721″ • Apr 25: x = 0.15359″ y = 0.41785″ • Apr 26: x = 0.15457″ y = 0.41857″ • Apr 27: x = 0.15521″ y = 0.41919″ Daily changes: ~1–2 milliarcseconds (mas). Completely normal. 2020 comparison hook (late April – early May): • Apr 28: x = 0.142″ y = 0.405″ • Apr 29: x = 0.143″ y = 0.406″ • Apr 30: x = 0.145″ y = 0.407″ • May 1: x = 0.147″ y = 0.409″ • May 2: x = 0.148″ y = 0.410″ • May 3: x = 0.149″ y = 0.411″ Again, ~1–2 mas daily wiggles. These micro-hooks are routine geophysical noise: superposition of the Chandler wobble (~435 days), the annual seasonal term (atmosphere/ocean/ice mass redistribution), and high-frequency weather/ocean loading. IERS records dozens of them every year with zero special alerts. The problem is the interpretive leap Claims of “decoupling & degradation in seasonal forcing”, comet-tail forcing (C/2025 R3), coronal ejections, or applying 6,000-year-scale Inertial Interchange True Polar Wander to a 5-day wiggle have zero quantified torque budget, energy calculation, or residual analysis after subtracting known surface excitations. This is classic pattern-seeking on noisy data. Real peer discussion requires: • Subtracting the established geophysical models (Chandler + seasonal + GIA + hydrology) • Showing a statistically significant residual • Proposing a falsifiable physical mechanism None of that is happening here. Contrast with legitimate research Yury Barkin’s 2010 EGU abstracts proposed secular northward core drift (~2.6 cm/yr toward Taimyr) + Milankovitch-scale core-mantle oscillations as the intermediary for hemispheric climatic swing and northern heat-flow intensification. CDIGR (Core Displacement & Geodynamic Rebalancing Theory) is the proper 2020s extension: using IERS EOP residuals, GRACE-FO mascons, CERES imbalance, etc., after subtracting surface drivers to hunt for any coherent core signal at the scales Barkin actually predicted. Daily/weekly hooks are not part of that model. They are fully explained by surface processes. The data are boringly normal. The doomsday narrative layered on top is not science — it’s fear-mongering content. If you want to test ECDO-style ideas seriously, do the residual analysis CDIGR is doing. Don’t turn routine 1–2 mas wiggles into evidence of planetary decoupling. (Search “ECDO” on my profile for the full critique thread.) — DC (@zero_lessons) Data source: Official IERS Rapid Service / Bulletin A (public archive)

This recent hook looks similar to a 2020 hook with similar null periodicity, albeit the more recent being exaggerated; expected if we assume decoupling & degradation in seasonal forcing. Noting the more drastic recovery in forcing. Will be observing closely the next fortnight.

@zero_lessons No. Feel free to unfollow/block me if you don't want to have constructive dialogue.

@Winston_104 I’ve already laid out my criticisms. Search ECDO on my page lol

@cognitivecarbon There seems to be a causal relationship with comets & coronal ejections, & again with ejections & earthquakes. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility they could also affect the CMB, & possibly influence sloughing, especially during a null like we had on our last hook. C/2011 L4:

@Winston_104 wondering - purely because of the time coincidence - if the debris from C/2025 R3 comet tail could have had any influence on this (by altering forcings in some small way)?

@zero_lessons Peer discussion is how science tests ideas. Discussing potentialities with peers, ways you could be wrong, surfaces blind spots before empirical data does. Without it, you just confirm your beliefs. Do you have critical thought of your own on ECDO, or just contempt & pejorative?

@Winston_104 You’re peddling ECDO pseudoscience nonsense lol

@zero_lessons It is, for a 6ka IITPW.

@Winston_104 All of this is normal

This is what bistability looks like in polar motion data: For 59 straight days the pole was direction-locked, drifting ~45 mas at bearing ~20° with R=0.85 directional coherence. Chandler precession over the same window should give R ≈ 0.2. Then on Apr 29 it violently snapped 270° to a new bearing. S2 took over for 2 months. S1 just yanked it back. Go read my fourth paper

@dafuc75 Not all may be considered hooks, but looking at the Δangle alone: 2023: 0 kinks ≥30° 2024: 5 kinks ≥30° 2025: 21 kinks ≥30°, 3 ≥60°, 1 ≥90° 2026: 12 ≥30°, 6 ≥60° in 92 days (so far) Each impulse during a null is seemingly having an increasing impact on pole motion.

@dafuc75 If you classify a hook as a drastic change in pole direction & rank them based on Δangle you'd get the table shown below including only GPS (1993+ data.

@ZBadBird @zachariaspro @nobulart @ahfultz @MrMosis @cognitivecarbon There's definitely suppression going on in the space.

@zachariaspro @nobulart @ahfultz @MrMosis @cognitivecarbon For the life of me, I don't understand why you folks (this subject matter) don't have millions of followers...

Polar motion phase portrait calculated from IERS xp/yp values, 1973 until yesterday. datacenter.iers.org/data/latestVer… (+daily)

Our planet is changing imminently. Its been over 4 months and not a single soul on Earth has a strong explanation for addressing the transfer function failure in Earth's rotational system. And its still getting worse.

@avxz1991 That we start moving towards SAC-LLVP with exponentially increasing mas/day.

I've created an #ECDO EOP Telegram notifications channel for daily updates of EOP which is automated to post immediately after USNO updates their finals2000A.daily. Feel free to share. @nobulart @zachariaspro @EthicalSkeptic t.me/ECDO_Polhode

@TheProjectUnity Earth's core is significantly decoupled and the protective magnetic field is significantly weakened because of it, on top of that we're just cusping solar maximum.

Okay is anyone else's skin burning way faster than normal in the UK right now? It feels like the sun is far more intense... Even my darker skinned friends are saying they are feeling a new intensity to the sun. But it's only like 21 degrees Celsius... It's weird.

@nobulart @MrMosis @ZBadBird @ahfultz @cognitivecarbon I you less risk adverse being in SA?😄I wish I had a better idea, but it makes sense; CMB slough (J = F × Δt) during a null, elastic rebound of the mantle following the impulse drives the subsequent rapid movement back away from SAC. There are of course always unknown unknowns.

@MrMosis @ZBadBird @ahfultz @cognitivecarbon I've been looking at this data for several months now, yet I remain extremely cautious about what is claimed, having no possible way to know what underlies these observations. As I have said many times: a 50 year record provides minimal context within the lifetime of a planet.

@AussieFim @ausvstheagenda That guy is not Australian.

@despite13pcnt @ausvstheagenda That guy is pro Australia and has an Australian flag pole at his house. I think you're barking up the wrong tree.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has doubled down on comments from earlier this week, saying Australia will never return to a time with less mass immigration because diversity is our strength.

@s547bay @ECDOMonitor I post something very similar here: t.me/ECDO_Polhode typically less than 2 mins after USNO posts the data. The predictions are USNO's.

@despite13pcnt @ECDOMonitor Do you post this one daily? The projected positions would be interesting to follow for accuracy of prediction.

Axis Update w/ 4/12/2026 IERS Data 1-day x/y-pole Mvmt Status: NORMAL (0) 3-day x/y-pole Mvmt Status: NORMAL (0) 6-day x/y-pole Mvmt Status: NORMAL (0) Radius Excursion: YELLOW (0.3)

@SamaHoole More evidence that we're carnivores.

There is a region in southeastern Spain called Almería. If you pull it up on satellite imagery, you will assume the screen has glitched. A vast, blinding white scab where a landscape used to be. It's not a glitch. It's 64,000 acres of plastic greenhouses. So much plastic sheeting that it is, genuinely, visible from space. The entire region has been wrapped in industrial farming film to grow tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers and lettuce for European supermarkets in January. The plastic has created its own microclimate. The reflective surface is so vast it has measurably lowered local temperatures by bouncing sunlight back into the atmosphere. Scientists have a name for it. The Albedo effect of Almería. The only place on earth where human activity has cooled the local climate, and they did it by accident, while building the world's largest open-air plastic factory. The plastic itself is single-use agricultural film. It sits in UV light for three to five years, degrades into microplastics, blows into the Mediterranean, and ends up in the ocean and the soil. Every year, 45,000 tonnes of plastic waste is generated just from replacing degraded greenhouse covering. Every year. Just the covering. Inside, workers from Morocco and sub-Saharan Africa labour in 45°C heat for €30 a day. No contracts. No rights. Spraying crops with pesticides at concentrations that would be illegal on outdoor fields. Ventilation: minimal. Chemical exposure: constant. The aubergine looks lovely. The groundwater underneath Almería is so contaminated with agricultural runoff that it has been declared unusable. The region now imports water from elsewhere in Spain while sitting on top of a poisoned aquifer it created. The land that was meant to feed Europe more efficiently has become a place that needs water flown in to keep the show running. And this is what supplies your fresh vegetables in January. Grown in plastic factories. By exploited workers. Using groundwater they have already destroyed. Wrapped in more plastic. Shipped across Europe. Refrigerated the whole way. So a person in Manchester can have a tomato in February that tastes of nothing. But sure. Cattle grazing on Scottish hills are the environmental problem. Pull the satellite up. Have a look. Then tell me which system is the one that needs explaining.