Ryan Wilbourn

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Ryan Wilbourn

Ryan Wilbourn

@WolfRyan

Host - @Wolf_Financial @Wolf_TradingX @StocksOnSpaces #SpacesHost. Trader, Investor, and Stock Market Enthusiast.

Querétaro, MEX Katılım Aralık 2019
983 Takip Edilen33.1K Takipçiler
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
"Are you still in the trade?" Me:
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Paper Gains
Paper Gains@PaperGainsInc·
What if SaaS isn’t actually dead? Like every other “X is dead” headline that wasn’t… Retail wasn’t dead. A lot of retail died. Circuit City. Sears. Toys R Us. Radio Shack. But Costco $COST is at all time highs. Walmart $WMT adapted and is thriving. The category didn’t die. The weak ones did. Same with the dollar. People have been calling for the dollar’s death for decades. Reserve status gone. Replaced by the yuan. Replaced by crypto. Replaced by BRICS. And yet… the dollar still anchors global trade. The dollar didn’t die. The narrative did. What if the same happens with software? What if there are names that not only survive but thrive? What if you could tell them apart? What if the survivors are the ones sitting on proprietary data and regulated workflows AI can’t replace? Using AI to accelerate adoption. Not trying to compete head-on with the large training models. What if the stock that proves it is $INTU? 30-40x P/E premium SaaS darling for years. Now down ~38% YTD from $813 to $380. Forward P/E now 16.5x non-GAAP on FY26 numbers. On a business growing 12-13%, with QuickBooks Online Accounting up 24% last quarter and Credit Karma up 23%. 34% FCF margins. 19% ROIC. It seems like the market is pricing it as if it’s about to lose all its pricing power. As if AI agents are going to replace bookkeepers and tax preparers and all of that stuff. But do the numbers actually support that? Seems like prognostication of a future story. What if next week they print massive expansion and the executive team says they’ve expanded their TAM through Intuit Enterprise Suite (their AI-native mid-market ERP)… AI agent users on QuickBooks did go from 2.8M to 5M… And the Anthropic partnership…which they signed on February 24 and nobody seems to remember, ends up being a two-way integration generating net new customers. Claude’s Agent SDK is built INTO Intuit’s platform. Mid-market businesses can spin up custom AI agents inside QuickBooks and Intuit Enterprise Suite. No coding. Compliant out of the box. Intuit owns the data, the tax code mapping, the accounting workflows. Anthropic provides the reasoning layer. And what if on the other side… Intuit’s tax, accounting, and finance tools get surfaced INSIDE Anthropic’s products. Inside Claude. Inside Cowork. Inside Claude for Enterprise. That’d be a brand new customer acquisition funnel that did not exist 90 days ago, inside one of the fastest growing AI products on the planet. What if they’re actually attacking from both ends? They own the data underneath the agents AND they’re plugged into the AI surface customers actually open every day. If this re-rate from 16.5x to 25x I’m pretty sure you’re looking at ~$575 just by giving it a decent market multiple. Before any earnings upside. But what do I know. I’m just saying… WHAT IF??? I actually have no idea… I’m just saying… NFA.
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
If you needed a watchlist in this market...
WOLF@WOLF_Financial

JUST IN: PRESIDENT TRUMP'S Q1 STOCK DISCLOSURE COVERS 3,800+ TRANSACTIONS. THE LARGEST: $5M-$25M SALES EACH OF META, AMAZON, AND MICROSOFT ON 2/10. The OGE 278-T was filed May 8 and certified by the Office of Government Ethics on May 13. The largest disclosed sales ($5M-$25M each): - Meta Platforms $META (2/10/2026) - Amazon $AMZN (2/10/2026) - Microsoft $MSFT (2/10/2026) - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (1/12/2026) Additional $1M-$5M sales: - Netflix $NFLX (2/10/2026) - Palantir $PLTR (2/10/2026) - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO (1/6/2026 and 3/19/2026) - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV (1/23/2026) - State Street SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF $SPY (1/29/2026) The largest disclosed purchases ($1M-$5M each, 15+ names): - NVIDIA $NVDA (2/10/2026) - Apple $AAPL (3/2/2026) - Oracle $ORCL (3/17/2026) - Broadcom $AVGO (2/10/2026) - Adobe $ADBE (2/10/2026) - ServiceNow $NOW (2/10/2026) - Workday $WDAY (2/10/2026) - Synopsys $SNPS (2/10/2026) - Cadence Design $CDNS (3/17/2026) - Microsoft $MSFT (3/19/2026, after the 2/10 sale) - Amazon $AMZN (3/19/2026, after the 2/10 sale) - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO (multiple) - iShares Russell 1000 ETF (3/27/2026) Important context per the OGE form itself: - The 278-T discloses transactions over $1,000 made by the filer, spouse, or dependent child - Many entries are flagged "Discretion Exercised" or "Your Broker Acted As Agent," indicating a managed brokerage account placed the trades - Some are "Unsolicited" (filer initiated) and others "Solicited" (broker recommended) - All amounts are disclosed in ranges, not exact figures - The reporting period covers January through March 2026

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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
480 ✅ 200 points while sleeping 👀
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WOLF
WOLF@WOLF_Financial·
JUST IN: 10 CHINESE FIRMS HAVE BEEN APPROVED TO BUY NVIDIA H200 CHIPS. NOT A SINGLE DELIVERY HAS BEEN MADE. Beijing has been telling its companies to hold off. The full picture, per Reuters: The approved buyers (~10 total): • Alibaba $BABA • Tencent • ByteDance (private) • JD. com $JD • 6 others not named in the report The approved distributors: • Lenovo • Foxconn • Each approved customer can purchase up to 75,000 chips under U.S. licensing terms Why no deliveries have happened: • Chinese firms pulled back after guidance from Beijing • Beijing wants to keep AI investment focused on domestic chips like Huawei's • DeepSeek and other Chinese AI labs are increasingly pivoting to homegrown chips • Two recent State Council supply chain security regulations are tightening scrutiny of foreign tech dependencies The deal mechanics: • Trump negotiated 25% of revenue from chip sales going to the U.S. • Chips must physically pass through U.S. territory before being shipped to China • Buyers must demonstrate "sufficient security procedures" and no military use • NVIDIA $NVDA must certify sufficient U.S. inventory The bigger picture: • Before U.S. export curbs, NVIDIA had ~95% of China's advanced chip market • China was 13% of NVIDIA's revenue at peak • Huang has estimated China's AI market alone is worth $50 billion this year • NVIDIA's share of AI accelerators in China has effectively fallen to zero • Huang is currently in Beijing with President Trump for a summit with Xi Jinping
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
Did anyone else notice there wasn’t a single Iran headline today 🧐
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
Elon, Jensen with the US Delegation greeting President Xi of China.
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
The Trump and Xi meeting is fascinating.
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Maciej Cepnik 🇵🇱 🇲🇽 🇨🇦
Tomorrow I’m flying to Puerto Vallarta for my first despedida de soltero (bachelor party), of a good Mexican friend. It will be the first one in my life. Any advice or suggestions?
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Evan
Evan@StockMKTNewz·
Want to see something cool ... I just got my first Apple Mac Mini🍏 I'm about to become an AI Agent master. What is something I should automate? Shoutout to @perplexity_ai for sending me this so I can get the best out of their new Personal Computer feature, im excited 👀
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
WE ARE HOSTING OUR FIRST IN-PERSON EVENT 🐺 The Wolf Pack will be in NYC on August 3rd for a full day of Trading and Investing Education + Meet and Greet. Speakers Include: @EinsteinoWallSt @stocktalkweekly @JC_ParetsX @PaperGainsInc @RedDogT3 And most of the Live Trading Crew you've seen on Spaces and Streams for years: @KCTrades777 @AceTheKid @MapleStax @BullTradeFinder @StockMKTNewz @Simply_Sim1 Come meet the Wolf Pack and learn from the best in the space! Event details can be found in the link below. 👇👇
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
Hey guys, its a bull market. Hope this helps.
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Ryan Wilbourn
Ryan Wilbourn@WolfRyan·
Trump/Xi meeting expected to begin at 10:00am Local Time in Beijing 🇨🇳 Or around 10:00pm ET tonight.
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