worku M

@Zemedeneh We will likely see more of them in good climate areas like San Francisco but weather issues still need to be solved in order to expand to other area.

For the first time ever, I rode in a fully autonomous driverless ride-hailing (Waymo) vehicle in San Fransciso. The vehicle navigated the busy streets just like any vehicle with a driver. But, I got to admit, it was surreal sitting in the back and riding without a driver (and no one to talk). The vehicle’s computer controlled everything including the music, the temperature, announcements such as how long the ride takes and arrival. Waymo and similar others could be the new norm in many cities around the world in the not distant future. The question is: What would happen to the jobs of millions of drivers of taxis and ride hailing services around the world? Waymo is owned by Alphabet (Google’s parent) and has expanded beyond its original base in San Francisco to other U.S. cities including Los Angeles, Dallas, etc.

@cz_binance @cz_binance Will there be an Audible version?

From Forbes, with a mix of positive and negative views. "Freedom of Money: A Memoir of Protecting Users, Resilience, and the Founding of Binance [...] available on Amazon Kindle for $9.99, where it's already ranked #4 among all Kindle books." 3 day after publishing. 🤣

@alemayehuGeda Respectfully, I think you are wrong in believing this. People underestimating the power of the dollar. Let’s see if these countries (EM) issue debt in their own currencies and successfully attract buyers. Until that happens, dedollarization is just a wish list in my opinion.

The dedollarization trend.

@Zemedeneh This would be a game changer if they are able to secure the money. From creating jobs for the youth to stimulating the economy and even helping with forex problems. However, internal political stability must to reap the benefits otherwise there is a huge debt risk.

The 100 million passenger US$10 billion Bishoftu Int’l Airport (BIA) attracted a large number of financial institutions from the U.S., Europe, Asia & Middle East to its financiers presentation yesterday. We had a very productive day! Owned by Ethiopian Airlines (ET), BIA is scheduled to complete phase 1 in 2029. At full capacity it will be amongst the 10 largest airports in the world. US$10 billion project finance transactions are rare in Africa even in the natural resource space. And attracting global financiers attention is even rarer. So, as an investment banker and personally, it was gratifying to see such a large and diverse group of global financiers (contractors and suppliers, too) participate yesterday. A huge sign of confidence in ET’s ability to build, finance and operate BIA. At @CBECapitalSC Investment Bank, we are fully committed to do our part to the success of the BIA project and Ethiopian Airlines’s remarkable growth. Pictures from ET.

@alemayehuGeda @BerhaneSamson Exactly

@Worku_F @BerhaneSamson ..and the 100 sth % increse in budget level which most likely be montized by NBE.

The National Bank of Ethiopia increased the annual credit growth ceiling for commercial banks to 18% from 14%, marking a measured easing of lending restrictions as inflationary pressures show signs of cooling.

@eyobderrick @LastNigus Didn’t they say that foreigners are allowed to participate in the capital market? If this is the case, then how does the sale of the IPO on the secondary market work? People who purchase the IPO can only sell it to Ethiopians when the ESX launches?

@LastNigus nope, you have to be ethiopian citizen

just 15 days remain until the deadline for ethioelecom’s share sale. curious to know how much of the share has been sold so far. hopefully, they’ll release their performance details soon, because this could signal the public interest for the upcoming capital market.

@alemayehuGeda What some people don’t realize is that, in addition to the printing of more money, corruption is also contributing to inflation in the country. Business people who pay bribes will pass the cost on to customers b/c part of their business expenses & this in turn drives up prices.

I wish we had such law for corruption in Africa.

@alemayehuGeda @eyobderrick Personally, I see more inflation for Ethiopia unless a black swan event occurs & leads the world economy into a recession. Reasons: govt deficit spending, ongoing war, devaluation, deglobalization, etc. Let alone Eth, even developed countries are having difficulty controlling it.

@eyobderrick Inflation is measured by CSA using over 89 commodities and 9 markets in Addis only (imagine the country level). Then there are expenditure weights to add them up. You cannot intelligently talk about inflation using egg& carrot price& snapshot at that. Needs professional.

inflation seems to be easing a little, starting this november. eggs are now around 10 birr each, down from 15 birr just a few months ago. carrots have dropped to 40 birr per kilo, compared to around 75 birr before. onions is also showing slight decreases in price.

@alemayehuGeda @eyobderrick Both are correct. @eyobderrick the practical & lived experience impact of inflation. @alemayehuGeda comprehensive measure of inflation using the CPI index. Useful when comparing inflation b/n countries. Note that it is a statistical average & may not reflect people’s experiences

@alemayehuGeda @Zemedeneh @alemayehuGeda Agree, $20 billion from remittances is way too high. Around $4 to $5 billion is more realistic. @Zemedeneh I’m assuming you are including diaspora mortgage payments as remittances. That is the only way I can think of hitting the $20 billion target.

@Zemedeneh Assuming your number about Diaspora is right (dounbt it) it meanse sending about $5,700/yr by each member of diaspora. Your estimate is more than 3 times higher than the estimated $100 to 200/month migrants are estimated to send to Ethiopia. 2nd, the method how NBE etimate 1/2

10 largest recipients of Diaspora remittance in the world - two are from Africa: *#Egypt $24b *#Nigeria $21b The recent currency regime change by #Ethiopia - Africa’s 2nd most populous country with approximately 3.5 million diasporas worldwide - is expected to increase formal remittance significantly in the coming few years. Furthermore, very advanced, easy-to-use and cost effective remittance fintech rolled-out by the country’s central bank (NBE), locally developed by Viditure, complimented by remittance apps used by the country’s commercial banks such as CashGo, MamaPays and EthioDirect, should further facilitate the growth of FX remittance via official channels. In my view Ethiopia has the potential to match or even exceed the $20+ billion remittances received by Egypt and Nigeria. Graph by: @VisualCap

(7/7) one thing I would say is no one knows for sure exactly how the simultaneous implementation of these reforms will play out. I don’t think there are many countries in the past that implemented so many reforms at the same time. The Ethiopian situation is unique.

(6/7) bilateral cooperation like the recent agreement with the UAE on currency swaps, FDI, and the likelihood of remittances moving to the formal channel. So whether you are optimistic like me or pessimistic about the reform,

(1/7). The last few days, I have been hearing and reading many predictions including from some economists forecasting disastrous economic outcomes for Ethiopia due to the recent devaluation of the birr. They are citing Egypt and Nigeria as examples

@jotewakjira Since these banks compete against each other, if they offer unfair exchange rates to their Foreign Exchange Account holders, they risk losing customers to competitors offering better rates. Banks have an incentive to keep their customers happy and loyal.

Looking at the new Fx provision again. I see a problem with 6.2 of the directive. It gives banks an upper hand and gives them adverse incentive of miss-pricing exchange rates. It also puts exporters under undue pressure to sell half of their proceed immediately. The banks will use that to their advantage. READ here👇 After fulfilling the repatriation requirement set out in sub-article 6.1, exporters of goods and services shall immediately convert into Birr, at a freely negotiated rate, 50 percent (50%) of their export proceeds to the Bank used in processing their foreign exchange transaction, while keeping the remaining 50 percent (50%) in their Foreign Exchange Retention Account.

@Zemedeneh Otherwise, it is difficult for these reforms to bear fruit, as corruption is the number one cause of many problems in the country, including the ongoing civil war. (3)

@Zemedeneh @Zemedeneh If we compare the recent reforms made by the Ethiopian government to those of Singapore, out of the top 10 reforms Singapore implemented to transform into a global economic powerhouse, only one is missing in Ethiopia’s case i.e proper anti corruption measures. (1)

$20 billion financing for #Ethiopia announced in just the last 2 days. *IMF: $3.4 billion imf.org/en/News/Articl… *World Bank: $16.6 billion in undisbursed & future commitments (See attachment). MY VIEW: $20 billion is the largest financing ever by IMF/WB for a SSA country and indicates huge confidence by the two Washington DC based DFIs in Ethiopia’s economic prospects. When fully deployed, the multiplier effect on the economy could be up to a 10X boost over the next few years. When adding the anticipated debt relief, the positive impact on the economy will be even more significant. As the head of a large global company that has invested in the country, I fully support the reforms which are designed, amongst many other goals, to: (1) structurally transform the economy (2) maintain macroeconomic stability, especially by reducing inflation, increasing FX liquidity (3) minimize distortions caused by the oligopolistic structures which benefit only a few, (4) expand the nascent domestic private sector and enable it to compete not only domestically but also abroad and, (5) support value-added global exporters like us employing thousands of Ethiopians generating much needed FX. For instance, the revised FX retention increase to 50% is a big welcome, with more reforms to support exporters anticipated soon. My personal experience managing many very large and complex investment transactions during periods of economic reforms in Latin America, in particular Brazil and Argentina, and other emerging markets, indicates that a lot of hard work is needed over several periods to fully realize the benefits of economic reforms while mitigating risks and minimizing the impact on the livelihood of millions of people especially at the low end of the income structure. In this regard, analyzing the solution tool kits used by other countries with similar reform experiences (the successful as well as those who didn’t succeed) will be helpful. Summary: Ethiopia’s economy is starting to transition to a new and exciting phase appropriate not only for its current size (5th largest in Africa) but, most importantly, to its projected position in the coming decades as being amongst the 20 largest in the world with a $6.2 trillion GDP (according to Goldman Sachs).