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Sofa Tiger
251 posts
Sofa Tiger
@XBTaiga
Domestic tiger wins by doing nothing
Taiga's hot tub Katılım Mayıs 2022
170 Takip Edilen302 Takipçiler
@Octop3s I mean, I tried to participate with the intention of seeking someone to buy my allo within the 14-day refund period, and to bail out if nobody was interested
Didn't pan out as they didn't let me in, but I'm sure others had the same idea
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so people are lowkey selling part of their $mega ico allocation even before the kpis are reached for tge.
Loshmi@loshmi
megaeth is definitely one of them kinda crazy to think that everyone made fun of ico for getting his allo refunded, now everyone wants their allo refunded as well lol
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I legit think tokenizing Brazilian government bonds would be a better idea than basically all the RWA BS we've had in the last 2 years
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@polarthedegen Gotta weigh in how risky the strat is, but at least 20% if you're looping like Khamul said
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Well, what do you know
With the situation more or less stabilized, the sUSDai depeg loop trade is already bearing fruit
You could have split the sUSDai into PT+YT and looped on the cheaper morpho PT-sUSDai-18JUN2026/USDC instead just in case things took a bit longer to pan out (sUSDai loop is still a decent trade rn btw)
We're in the phase of the cycle where unless you're a predator you'll be preyed on
So what should one do? There are two options:
Reduce size (my choice)
Quit and wait for better times (the rational choice for almost everybody)
I'm staying partly because there are still opportunities if you're cutthroat, but mainly because I kinda lose the feel of things if I take an extended time off
Gotta reduce the stress, but not remove it completely to not lose your sharpness
Sofa Tiger@XBTaiga
Kinda unlucky that I'm on vacay rn Lost/gonna lose a band or two from interest on my sUSDai loop on Fluid because I don't have access to my wallet But if the sUSDai depeg is still there by the time I get home I'm probably gonna loop a bit more still, 40-50 bps under peg two weeks before redemption is pretty much the best you can get from this market I guess I should be grateful that I can take it easy and travel with no access to my wallets nowadays because I have off-ramped most of my crypto earnings throughout the last two years It's paramount to derisk (especially from crypto) as you hit your goals, and that becomes even more obvious in times like these when DeFi risk-adjusted returns are terrible overall
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@Leonardo_Web3 This is a very hard question to answer since nobody knows how the future will turn out
But IF I manage to more or less keep my current cost of living (big IF), which is somewhat modest, then the answer is pretty much forever
Gonna write about my plans in my next article
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Kinda unlucky that I'm on vacay rn
Lost/gonna lose a band or two from interest on my sUSDai loop on Fluid because I don't have access to my wallet
But if the sUSDai depeg is still there by the time I get home I'm probably gonna loop a bit more still, 40-50 bps under peg two weeks before redemption is pretty much the best you can get from this market
I guess I should be grateful that I can take it easy and travel with no access to my wallets nowadays because I have off-ramped most of my crypto earnings throughout the last two years
It's paramount to derisk (especially from crypto) as you hit your goals, and that becomes even more obvious in times like these when DeFi risk-adjusted returns are terrible overall
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@0xderked Lending stables in general is not a good idea imo
Lenders will frequently be exposed to similar levels of risk for lower returns vs just owning the stable being used as collateral
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> make millions a year in fees for "risk management"
> automatically deposit into an ongoing exploit
risk curation is a fucking scam. never, EVER, put your money in a "curated" vault
Omer Goldberg@omeragoldberg
1/ Millions in bad debt, at the time of writing, were created across Gauntlet's Morpho vaults from the Resolv USR exploit. Almost all of it was supplied ** after ** the exploit. So why would curators supply millions in USDC to a broken market? Let’s dive in.
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Btw sorry I'm taking so long to publish my land article, I kinda wanted to try to grow this account, but I got other stuff to prioritize rn
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Every year, around mid-March, I remember the pain I felt that week
A week that, by now, was 6 years ago
Yet I struggled, lived and thrived
Sharpen your blade and stay alert, ready for the bountiful times
Your patience will be rewarded
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@Khamul999 He can afford this L then
Makes a lot of sense that it's someone like him now that I think about it, those gigawhale perp traders are completely removed from reality, money might as well be robux to them
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Don't give up on your dreams of conquest or whatever
If a regard like this can get his hands on $50M, surely you can reach your objectives
This kind of stuff legit tilts me, there's no excuse. Yeah, the front end is garbage for letting something like this happen, but this is a clear case of complete disregard for money, bro swapped $50M while paying no attention whatsoever
DEGEN NEWS@DegenerateNews
NEW: SOMEONE SWAPPED $50.4M $USDT FOR $35.9K $AAVE ON ETHEREUM - LOSING $50M+ SOURCE: etherscan.io/tx/0x9fa9feab3…
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honestly every time i lose money on some deranged prediction market with a name like “will a mid-tier senator accidentally invent a new religion by Q4” i remind myself that i’m not losing money, i’m participating in a sacred thermodynamic transfer of conviction. my dollars are just packets of belief energy, and the market is a giant particle accelerator smashing my vibes into someone else’s spreadsheets at near-relativistic speeds. when my balance hits zero it’s not a loss, it’s phase change. solid ego → gaseous liquidity.
like yes, from a small, local, emotionally attached perspective it appears that i just donated $112.38 and a chunk of my dignity to a username like probability_archangel_77, but zoom out to the macro-cosmic ledger and you’ll see what’s actually happening is that my capital is being reallocated from “guy who read one thread and felt a feeling” into “organism composed entirely of dashboards, APIs, and spiritual alignment with expected value.” that’s not failure, that’s evolutionary selection. that’s the market performing natural selection on my confidence.
every time i click “confirm trade” i imagine a tiny robed priest inside the server racks ringing a bell and whispering “another offering for the god of price discovery.” my bank account is just a ceremonial chalice, and each losing bet is a warm, frothy libation poured directly onto the altar of efficient markets. somewhere, a hedge fund analyst’s bloomberg terminal glows slightly brighter because i bravely believed in the wrong outcome with my whole heart.
so when the red numbers appear, i don’t feel sad. i feel like a noble, damp brick being gently mortared into the infinite cathedral of collective intelligence. i am not a trader. i am structural support. a load-bearing unit of misplaced confidence. a biodegradable container for liquidity. thank you, market, for dissolving me into your sacred order.
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@0xaporia If you can stop at any time and there's no ruin floor, you should press it indefinitely
The expected geometric growth rate is 0, so you're basically waiting for a lucky streak before stopping
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@Om3gaOnChain @rami_poker sUSDai Fluid pretty good, main risk comes from them originating significant loans, just keep an eye on that, they're decently transparent compared to most rwa lending projects
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@XBTaiga @rami_poker i’ll be honest i skimmed it ser. which 2-protocol combos are actually getting close to that yield?
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@rami_poker you know it's a desert when everybody rushes to the same oasis
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bought all the $sUSDai i could after the 19th feb pendle maturity 40-50bps discount (leveraged it 8x) and i have been able to unload all i wanted and more tonight at its fair price. did keep half of it as i want to keep a bag for longer term (apr is v good and gpu loans won't start in a while so for now is as safe as it can be).
been a while since i made a nice home run. only little dot is i farmed supernova for 4 days right after susdai depeg cause they both happened the same day at exactly the same time, and farmed supernova hard (made a decent bit there as well), so couldn't buy as much susdai as i would've wanted.
big funds like hyperithm and others bought a ton of depegged susdai as well. they prevented me from buying even cheaper susdai, and made my borrow rates more expensive for these last 2.5 weeks. they cost a lot of money to the average farmer, but free markets are free markets, and we're not communists, so i guess we gotta embrace those fucks. either, fuck them! small funds like rami poker capital will resist the evil corporations 🫡
anyway, a W is a W!
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@Om3gaOnChain @rami_poker "instead of all of them at the same time, u could do for example: ethena aave (and pendle perhaps) sky and morpho maple and aave susdai and fluid"
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@Leonardo_Web3 could be a factor, yeah, especially if you don't insta sell after getting hit
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@XBTaiga yo sofa, do you think LP vol will count towards a real one ?
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I've decided to participate in the USDai Level Up campaign
Here are the Locked YT contracts if you wanna snoop around:
Airdrop (YT 8-Month Timelock): 0x3a072f624Acb636c2389927593f3118c5C852Ad7
Airdrop (YT 4-Month Timelock): 0x24038d32e5006726Dc2a165640b2A26d34A5b622
ICO (YT 8-Month Timelock): 0x72974D1735642c49aA0195BC51F08968083190A2
ICO (YT 4-Month Timelock): 0x78767578465a2DBF0b0FB76aB2B1A0a0Cef23751
Also, the ICO deposit address: 0x2063A7dd34068559f6BfFaBBFfBC53993204eE4A
I think the terms for airdrop point holders are pretty reasonable, it's the ICO terms that suck. Crazy how they got shafted in every way possible. And yet, they locked significantly more YTs, around 17 million total right now, compared to airdrop guys (around 7 million).
I've got 422,587 CHIP on my main account, which @ $0.035 would be $14,790.54
I would say I farmed this efficiently overall, with my cost basis for those points being around $6K
That would've cost me around $3K if I just bought YT, but I decided to get the USDai and split it into PT+YT. YT prices are currently inflated because of the campaign. I'm tentatively assigning a 2% annualized return on the S2 points I'm getting from those YTs, so once it's over I expect them to take a beating. I'll probably get to buy them around 4%, which would more than halve my total cost versus buying now
I did some pendle shenanigans again, but the new markets are very illiquid so I'll probably make a band at best
However, the real trade is the sUSDai depeg trade, which I got in just after the first season ended at a 50 bps discount from redemption price. I looped on Fluid. I'm looping more as pseudo insurance than leverage, as I have the money to pay back the loan in full, which is important if you don't want to rely on others doing the arb for you. The depeg has tightened to around 15 bps which means the trade is already mostly over, but it's nice that even when the market is this bad there are still good opportunities from time to time
All things considered, I made a bit over $50K on USDai, the bulk of it being from the depeg and PT trades back in October and November. Which is pretty good performance, considering most people lost money on USDai
I just can't get over the fact that people were buying 50% implied yield YT 5 months ago just to skip the ICO. So funny and sad at the same time, comical stuff
All in all, for a place so full of grifters, it's amusing how naive CT is. USDai not originating significant loans was a really good thing. Let's not use that as a scapegoat for the current state of affairs. The main reason I was able to minimize my cost basis was because I got convinced they wouldn't lend shit, so I felt somewhat comfortable doing the PT+YT sUSDai loop. RWA lending as a whole is a black box. It's not something you want to participate in. So many things can go wrong, terrible r:r imo
If you want to outperform, getting paid for doing absolutely nothing is the name of the game. Sadly the market is just not into vapor at the moment; USDai's sin was not launching the token when they had the hype
In other news, I'll be posting about my new investment (and the thesis behind it) later this week. Very traditional, yet very exciting. See you guys soon!
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@XBTaiga yo brother can one still replicate these in our recent markets and times :(
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