X Banker

@RazorOil No one talks about it because we see so much cash gushing glowing potential that if we stare at anything for too long our eyes will burn.

Just listened to the Cenovus conference call, much discussion about Narrows reservoir quality, get used to hearing about this asset a lot !! going forward “Narrows Lake” ! As homogenous as it gets friends. 🫡🪒

@RazorOil The international majors have the worst track record in Canada. 15 years ago. Pretty much all one had to do was buy whatever international majors were selling and then wait. One would probably be buying a chain of islands today.

What a horrible horrible mistake it was by $BP huge fail...🫡🪒

@MPelletierCIO I agree rate hikes are not the solution to supply shock. But we are in this mess because rates were kept way too low for way too long which distorted the cost of capital and lead to all kinds of misallocation. Lowering rates is also not the solution here. Catch 22.

If inflation is being driven by a negative supply shock (oil embargo, war, pipeline disruption, etc.) rather than excessive demand, rate hikes often produce STAGFLATION (Growth slows, Unemployment rises, Equities struggle). Inflation initially stays elevated because the source isn't demand and a rate hike is one of the most dangerous policy mistakes central banks can make. 1973-74 Oil Shock OPEC cut production after the Yom Kippur War. Oil prices roughly quadrupled. The Fed tightened policy into the shock. -> Recession followed, Unemployment rose sharply and Real GDP contracted. -> S&P 500 fell roughly 48% peak-to-trough. Small caps and cyclicals were crushed. Initially both stocks and bonds struggled because inflation surged. Once recession became obvious, long Treasuries eventually rallied as growth collapsed. 1979-1980 Oil Shock Iranian Revolution. Oil prices doubled again. Volcker tightened aggressively -> Back-to-back recessions. Sharp rise in unemployment. -> Stocks delivered poor real returns. Initially terrible reaction by bonds because inflation exploded. Eventually spectacular when inflation broke and yields fell from extreme levels. The difference here is that inflation expectations had already become unanchored. Volcker wasn't just fighting oil. He was fighting a full wage-price spiral. Gulf War 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait. Oil prices spiked. The Fed was relatively restrictive. -> Recession followed, Housing weakened, Consumer confidence collapsed. -> Stocks sold off around 20%. Treasuries rallied once recession fears overtook inflation fears. What makes the current situation unusual is that: Core CPI is only 2.6% YoY. Core CPI was 0.0% in June. Weakness is showing up in housing and parts of services. The recent inflation scare was heavily energy-related. If Warsh were to hike because of an oil-driven inflation spike while underlying demand inflation remains subdued, history suggests the likely outcome would be: Lower growth (masked by AI spending) Stronger USD initially (already factored in I believe). Pressure on equities (not factored in, just starting). Wider credit spreads (only just starting). Eventually lower long-term Treasury yields as recession risk rises (nowhere close thanks to excessive supply of treasury issuance). In other words, if the inflation problem is primarily a supply shock rather than excess demand, the historical record suggests that tightening tends to hurt economic activity much more than it reduces the original source of inflation. That's why I am questioning whether a hawkish Fed response to an energy-driven inflation bump would be a policy mistake.

@RazorOil I know this is just a snipet and they have capacity to do even more now but look at this: (set aside minor share issue). Approx. share counts(M) Jan25=1.83. Issued for MEG=0.14. Buyback Jan25 to Jun26 = 0.125. Share count Jun 26 = 1.85. Please CVE, go max buyback now.

Mission accomplished. Also $CVE.TO free funds flow at $3.78B is very wild friends. Unbelievable…if H2 FFF is like H1 the implied yield is >15% Congratulations to all. 🫡🪒

@RCHerman1 @RazorOil As a holder of a MEG position. I was not happy with the stink bid SCR opened with. Poisoned the well and they never managed to fix it. All CVE had to do was be reasonable and to CVE credit. They played it well.

@RazorOil If $SCR hadn’t been so cheap and made a serious offer for the MEG asset, they would have it now. But, you know, that’s hindsight. The dog would have caught the rabbit if it hadn’t stopped to take a shit.

Did some numbers so you don’t have to. That Q3 2025 $CVE.TO acquisition of $MEG.TO at roughly $82k per flowing barrel could be possibly paid off with free funds flow of 2026 only. Q1 was $2.2B, Q2 estimating close to $3B so already $5.2B, another $3B split between Q3 and Q4 gets to $8B - $8.5B range. This asset will produce oil at current rate for at least 30 years based on 1P estimates only from my calculations. Sometimes it looks like one overpays…but they actually don’t. 🫡🪒

@RazorOil I looked briefly at the CVE report. I'm laughing not because it's funny....well it is because some of what I read looks like fiction. Costs down. Potential to 1m production. Debt down, share count down. If CVE was not an oil co, stock would be up 20%.

@PeterSchiff I know you don't like US bonds but I agree. Compared to the yield on Treasuries. Stocks are expensive.

Despite the tech market carnage, the broader stock market is still holding up well, with the Dow Jones up over 400 today. I expect that to change as the correction spreads. The entire U.S. stock market is overpriced, not just tech. I also expect a much bigger selloff in Bitcoin.

@VanIsleInvestor I'm not telling anyone what to do but WTI is just south of $80 USD even after the big drop and the FX is just north of 1.4. Thinking I don't need to get a PHD in finance that as long as CAN oil co don't turn dumb, I'm liking the projected cash flow on many CAN oil co.

Oil Down and Chip stocks down...wonders never cease. Here is Today's News Headline: Oil prices fell further on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, reaching their lowest levels in more than a week, driven by hopes of de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Nothing has really changed. Keep counting those Tankers. It's clear to see why so many Generalists shy away from this trade, while a few embrace it on their view of the fundamentals.

@JoshYoung Yep. Look at the refineries still running flat out (tips hat to workers keeping it going for the rest of us). And I know it's anecdotal but pay attention when travelling and look at the trucks, trains, boats etc... That stuff doesn't move on Peter Pan magic fairy dust.

Narrative: "oil demand destruction" Reality: booming flight activity

@BobSpartus @VanIsleInvestor Me too though they did sanction a project so I'm hoping the buybacks are still good. It's been a master class thus far.

@VanIsleInvestor looking forward to hearing how many shares ATH canceled

Are you ready for Q2 Canadian Energy Earnings ? Should be quite the couple weeks ahead 🌊

@MPelletierCIO I think the problem is that a lot of the people who were working in the industry in 2008 are no longer so there's no "memory" of what high interest rates do to cost of capital, discounts rates, duration etc...

The fact that UST 10s are back to just before 2008 financial crisis levels and few in the equity market are concerned is one of the few things that keep me awake at night.

@MPelletierCIO And we wonder why prices are so high? I mean breads and buns that used to go for $0.99 are $4.00 and $5.00.

CHART OF THE DAY. To my American followers, see this below. I bet most of you did not know that Canada printed more money than any other G7 nation by a country mile since 2020 Covid. The fact that anyone is buying our bonds and giving them such a low yield is astounding considering the massive currency debasement experienced under the Liberal government.

@MPelletierCIO Amen Brother.

"Hot deal" they told you. More like someone's exit. I've learned is never, ever be someone's exit. $SPCX

@VanIsleInvestor Agreed. I think he gets unfairly beat up in the media. May not be always right but he puts himself out there. Provides valuable research and advocates for the sector. I think his fund is up around 40% ytd in 2026.

Eric Nuttall with his last tweet almost one week ago on July 16th... "Why did the EIA TODAY put out a 1-pager on tank bottoms warning about minimum operating limits "in extreme cases"? Why now?????" $78 Oil to $88 and Oil Stocks have rallied since... Eric is correct. Some Fortune Tellers not as much. Another good reason, of many, I have followed Eric for years. Not always right, but always with data he believes to be accurate.

@MPelletierCIO I don't love a lot that is going on but let's for one minute be objective. The Americans (+ rest of the world) are not wrong about dairy. We should stop holding onto it. Buy back all the quotas, make dairy operators whole and have an orderly transition to a market system.

How about lower the costs by scrapping Dairy supply management? Now, there is an idea.

@RazorOil Nah....the naysayers will say that we can build roads out of solar panels and drive on them with batteries in the median that recharge all the EV driving on solar road. They'll just ignore what the tires and the rest of it are built with.

Good morning to everyone who understands that asphalt concrete (BITUMEN) remains the go-to material for pavement construction, no matter if you're driving an EV, ICE, hybrid, bicycles or anything else... 🫡🪒

@MPelletierCIO I'm with you. I'm stunned that no one seems to care that US 30 is north of 5 and many so called income stocks are yielding south of 3 carrying a huge amount of debt.

Why does it feel that I am alone in my worries over an overly hawkish Warsh, a rising USD, and rocketing real yields?

@RazorOil I don't understand. What are you trying to say? Buy another GPU? Or should I buy a negative free cash flow or something at 50 times sales? (<= all of this is major sarcasm for those that didn't catch it).

Good morning to all friends that know… 🫡🪒

@VanIsleInvestor I have been beating this drum for years. IMO share count melts. They raise dividend as share count falls. They don't do major dumb capex spends. They mostly exhaust the allotted buyback amount and then they often do SIBs. There is a reason why it trades where it does.

Why has $IMO Imperial Oil continued to outperform? They continue to hammer the buybacks relentlessly. Imagine if many Canadian Energy companies did to the same degree ?

@VanIsleInvestor The move today is starting to look like short covering/margin call though I have no evidence but for watching similar moves in the past. We'll see what it does going forward though I do suspect some shorts in high 60s have taken major losses, hope they didn't lever all in.

Oil always shoots under and over... Now people have to believe it will stay without the jawboning to reinvest.