Don Liu
4.8K posts


黄秋生近日在台湾拍了一个脂肪肝的公益广告,小小惊悚又不乏幽默,勾起了“人肉叉烧包”的深刻回忆,警示意味十足。




夺岛?还是夺铀?如果第82空降师出手,目标是谁?现在,所有人应该都知道,美国肯定是要来一次抢滩登陆了,没错,就是我们以前玩的那款游戏,抢滩登陆战。所以大家的注意力,就都集中在卡尔格岛。类似的情况,是在第一次海湾战争中,美国实施了一次佯攻行动,以迷惑伊拉克共和国卫队。 由于伊拉克方面做好了准备,但两栖攻击并未发生。取而代之的是,却是美国发动了大规模地面进攻。 现在,美国部署第82空降师,川普真正目标,应该是夺取伊朗境内深处的铀矿储备。这才是美国拆战争的重点,即空降兵从天而降,夺取所有伊朗现有的浓缩铀,并将其从伊朗运到美国…

BREAKING: Iran has vowed an unprecedented response if the United States attempts to seize Kharg Island. Yemen’s Houthis have identified the first measure: closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If they execute, the two chokepoints that carry 30 percent of the world’s seaborne oil will be shut simultaneously by the same alliance network. Hormuz is already closed. Bab el-Mandeb is the second lock. And the backup plan that every government built to survive the first closure runs directly through the second. Saudi Arabia responded to the Hormuz shutdown by rerouting crude exports to its Red Sea port at Yanbu. It was the obvious contingency. It was also the trap. Every barrel that loads at Yanbu must transit the Bab el-Mandeb to reach Asia. Thirty tankers are currently staged near Yanbu within Houthi strike range. The bypass and the blockade share the same water. Houthi military official Abed al-Thawr told Press TV that once the decision to intervene is made, the first step could be the official declaration of a naval blockade against the United States and Israel, with devastating economic consequences. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said any closure would target ships from nations committing aggression against Iran. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said his forces have their fingers on the trigger. They declared Hour Zero on March 14. Tasnim, Iran’s state-affiliated news agency, framed Red Sea insecurity as an explicit resistance option, signalling that the threat is not freelance Houthi posturing but coordinated Iranian strategy. The arsenal behind the threat is not hypothetical. Iran has supplied the Houthis with anti-ship ballistic missiles including the Asef with a 400-kilometre range, land-attack ballistic missiles including the Toufan capable of reaching 1,800 kilometres, cruise missiles from the Quds family reaching beyond 1,300 kilometres, and Samad-series attack drones with ranges up to 2,500 kilometres. They operate unmanned surface vessels, naval mines, and small-boat swarms designed for exactly this kind of chokepoint denial. Between 2023 and 2025, they attacked 178 vessels, sank four ships, and caused a 90 percent decrease in Red Sea container shipping. They did not need to physically block the strait then. They made it uninsurable. They can do it again. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM have already paused all trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb. CMA CGM imposed emergency surcharges of $2,000 per container and $4,000 per refrigerated unit. The strait is not yet physically blockaded. It is commercially dead. The shipping lines did not wait for the Houthis to fire. They read the threat and rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 12 to 15 days and a million dollars in fuel costs to every voyage. Two straits. One war. The United States is sending 5,000 Marines toward Kharg Island while reviewing seizure plans that both Iran and the Houthis have explicitly identified as the trigger for closing the second strait. If the Marines land on Kharg, the Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb. If Bab el-Mandeb closes, Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu bypass collapses. If Yanbu collapses, 30 percent of global seaborne oil is offline. The domino chain is four steps long. Each step has been publicly announced by the party that controls it. The strait is 30 kilometres wide. The war is 4,000 kilometres long. The backup just became the target. And the arsenal pointed at it has already proven it works. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

薄熙来1975年写给李丹宇的情书 似乎是天生能PUA女生的坏种 小矛【小矛是李丹宇的小名——编者注】: 我首先应该向你声明,此信这样的字大行稀,并非为了偷懒或应付差使,只是因为我习惯了较大的字,写起来舒服一些,只要看了我后面的篇幅,就可以证明我的勤勉了。 今天给你写信,大可以随便一些,因为一年里边这样的机会十分有限,所以我要尽情的利用它,时间是11:20了,在这之前我一直在看你的信,并审视我的照片。这是我奉命在生日那天照的,光秃秃的一个大脑袋,真没意思。但自惭形秽是不对的,不管他许多,还是给你寄去,由你耻笑吧。以下我想谈谈对几个问题的看法,和你讨论讨论,就来篇八股文吧。 形象问题 从你的信中我觉察到,你挺爱琢磨人的形象,这倒十分象纳赛尔,他就常常把别人的照片放在桌子上呆呆地看上半小时,据说凭着这个古怪的办法就可以得出一个人的基本印象,“八九不离十”了。这并不是全无道理,而且十分有趣,你可能就受了他的影响。形象在实际中确是客观存在的,在某种程度上反映着人们的内心世界,包括思想、品质、性格这些东西。虽然有人言行不一,很能克制,“不行于色”,但伪善者演正派人物总是不大象的,伪装终究是要剥去的,怪不得捷尔任斯基总爱用他那双敏锐的眼睛去注视一个个的“形象”。在交往中,人们既注意观察自己朋友的形象,也珍视自己留给朋友的形象,而且越亲近的人就越重视这一点。人们总不希望自己在别人心目中是无足轻重的,除非这个人我们本身就讨厌他,希望他快些忘掉自己,省的被缠住。对于你的形象,有时我能心满意足的回味,尤其是临别前你从小妹家回来后说的一两句话,我是非常动心的,连当时的表情、姿势我都十分清楚;可有时也不免模糊,这是感情不够好吗?未必,因为我主观上总是希望有一个你的清晰的形象。形象与感情有联系,但并不成正比;形象固然重要,但还以自然为妙。随随便便,自由自在,就是使人最舒服的形象。尽管我留给你的形象并不高大,也不稳重,甚至有些使你别扭的地方,但保持了自然的本色,我也就满足了。我深信在自然的发展中,能日益加深了解,树立起一个真正的,而不是臆想的形象。如果把你的大脑比做一个剧院,现在也许已经“座无虚席”了,早被那些“冠心病”、“动脉硬化”、“胆固醇”、“心电图”之类的医学名词占满了,我这个迟到者自然没有座位。但只要有耐心,“功夫不负有心人”,我想双方都会找到座位的。 我们并不是单凭“形象”所激发起来的热情而生活,更重要的是在理智的、精神与物质的互助中前进。毕竟,“形象”还只是入门的向导。 谦虚与求实 人们往往爱表现自己,而在言语上又故作谦虚,把自己说的这也不行,那也不好的。在朋友的接触中这种情况更是经常。即使有人是真实地谦虚 ,于事也是无益的。因为朋友嘛,就是为了互相帮助,就是要互相了解。隐讳自己的长处既不能加深相互的了解,更不能促进对方前进,很多满好的事就是被这种小资产阶级的虚荣心毁了的。事物总有两个方面,认识自己的缺点是必要的,看到自己的长处,由此鼓起勇气也是必要的。向别人讲述坦白自己的弱点是诚恳的,向别人介绍自己的优点也是自然而坦率的。谦虚固然是人之美德,实事求是确是我更为珍视的。我们即不应有庸人对一得之功的沾沾自喜,也不应有那种故意表现谦虚风度的做作。既然是朋友,了解就应该是完全彻底。在这里,不必顾虑一般人所说的“面子”,表扬自己又何尝不可呢?说心里话,当我看到你讲自己在呼啸的北风中长跑,在学习困倦时咬指,只在黑夜里听凭吟吟泪水的流淌,我是很感动的,而且也极喜欢你这样对我讲述自己的情况。这丝毫没有炫耀的意思,你是真情实感的表达。希望今后也是如此,哪怕你讲自己如何“棒”,如何做出成绩,我也只会把这当作你促进我前进的意思来理解的。当然,我也在同样要求自己。 “多愁善感” 上次给你的信中给你戴上多愁善感的帽子,请不要生气,那里50%是在开玩笑,并不是我对你的定见。“多愁善感”要一分为二,我不喜欢“多愁”,但喜欢“善感”。象你信中所描写的“轻风戏动的树叶,如血残阳的余辉,敲打窗子的雨声,及那静夜星空……” 这样“善感”我是喜欢的。一个人不应该思想呆板,沈溺于老套,除了学习业务以外就没有其他。生活浪漫一些好,思想活跃一些好,感情深沉一些好。许多革命的跃进,【此处字迹难以辨认】的成绩,都是带有一些浪漫色彩的。总按常规走路是不行的。而回想那些革命的大师们,工作中思想中常是严谨与浪漫二者同时存在。所以“触景生情,遇事善感”,我认为还是一种美德。至于“多愁”,我就不喜欢了。而坦白地讲,我最担心的也就是你不要染上那种知识分子的通病——遇事多愁。当然,以你目前的处境和经历过的事情是有理由多愁的。但多愁必定伤身而且无补于事,愁是愁不出办法来的。而正因为我和你的经历极相近,所以更不愿总是发愁,而希望 更多cn.nytimes.com/china/20121008…











