Chris Reyes

OIL IS UP 40% IN ONE MONTH AND MOST OF THE DAMAGE HASN'T HIT YOUR WALLET YET. Since February 28, crude oil has surged 40%. That is not a typo. Forty percent in thirty days. Gasoline already jumped 57 cents a gallon. You felt that immediately. But gasoline is the part you can see. What you can't see yet is everything diesel touches. Diesel hit $5.45 a gallon, up 45%. Diesel moves every truck that delivers every product to every shelf in every store you shop at. It powers farm equipment, construction machinery, fishing vessels, and freight trains. When diesel spikes, the entire supply chain reprices. That process takes 2 to 4 months to fully reach consumers. It gets worse. Fertilizer prices (urea) are up 40% since late February. Fertilizer is made with natural gas. Natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That strait is effectively closed. When fertilizer gets expensive, crop input costs rise, and food prices follow 4 to 9 months later. The food you buy in November is being priced right now. Then there is the stuff nobody talks about. Jet fuel feeds into airfares. Petrochemicals feed into plastics and packaging. Every consumer product that ships in a plastic container or rides on a truck is quietly being repriced behind the scenes right now. Bank of America calls this "not an oil shock but an energy shock" and cut global growth forecasts while raising inflation projections by 90 basis points. Morningstar projects US inflation hitting 3.5% by April. The OECD revised their US forecast to 4.2%. And the Fed? Six months ago markets priced in rate cuts. Today there is a 52% probability of a rate HIKE by year end. The last time oil spiked like this and the Fed was forced to hike aggressively was 2022. That cycle sent Bitcoin from $69K to $16K. The S&P dropped 25%. Mortgage rates doubled. Millions of households got squeezed from every direction simultaneously. The oil price you see today is the grocery price you pay in August. The fertilizer price you see today is the food price you pay in December. And the Fed decision that follows is the mortgage rate, the car payment, and the credit card bill you deal with for the next two years. You are watching the fuse. Not the explosion.

Gold stocks are in historically oversold territory: ~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023. This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a bear market for the first time since 2023. By comparison, ~90% of stocks in the ETF were in a bear market in October 2023. From that point until March 1st, 2026, $GDX rallied +346%, experiencing one of its biggest bull markets in history. Gold miners have rarely been this oversold.

BREAKING: The Philippines has declared a state of national energy emergency due to a severe shortage of oil amid the Iran War. Details include: 1. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Gulf, with gas prices up over +100% since February 28th 2. The government is also handing out 5,000 pesos ($83) to motorcycle taxi drivers and transport workers 3. The Philippines has become the first country in the world to declare a state of national energy emergency due to the war Asia is facing a major energy crisis right now.

The sector rotation so far this year has been absolutely stunning... Video: youtube.com/watch?v=SO9DOJ…

Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 14 months later: South Korea +204%, Peru +143%, South Africa +108% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify.

All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are now down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=ZLGVn3…

@grok @mustfollowpage @KobeissiLetter @grok what’s the damage of iran strikes on Israel, did the strikes pass through their dome again?

US & Israel have launched "major combat operations" against Iran, with strikes targeting leadership (Supreme Leader Khamenei & President) and military sites like missiles/navy. Iran retaliating with missiles on Israel and US bases in Kuwait, UAE, Qatar. Trump calls it ongoing (days/weeks); Israel aims to end the regime. Developing fast—confirmed across Reuters, NBC, Al Jazeera, Axios.

Americans are waking up to some major news in Iran: 1. The US and Israel have begun "major combat operations" in Iran 2. Strikes target Iran's Supreme Leader and President 3. Iran launches attacks on US bases in Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar 4. Iran launches retaliatory attacks on Israel 5. American officials say strikes will continue for days or weeks 6. Israel says goal is to "end the Ayatollahs' regime" It's going to be a busy weekend.

Quit pretending it’s not so.

BITCOIN JUST MADE HISTORY. But it's not something we all wanted. Bitcoin weekly RSI has just reached its lowest level in history. - Lower than tariffs Crash - Lower than the FTX crash - Lower than the Covid Crash - Lower than the 2018 bottom - Lower than the Mt. Gox hack This means, in the history of Bitcoin, it has never been this oversold.

Mars-Uranus square incoming

A look inside 🇬🇧 Bank of England’s gold vault 👀 It feels so antiquated.

Based on 2026 reports (e.g., Soundverse, iMusician, Digital Music News): Safest for data leaks & AI avoidance: Bandcamp (bans AI training on uploads, no recent breaches, strong artist controls); Chune (blockchain-based, decentralized for privacy). Riskiest: SoundCloud (Dec 2025 breach exposed 30M users); Spotify (Dec 2025 scraping of 86M tracks' data); Raaga (Jan 2026 breach of 10M+ users). Consider self-hosting or platforms like Tidal for better opt-outs. Review policies directly.

@grok @SoundCloud Dec 2025 is a recent breach! Out of all the major Music platforms used today, which are the safest versus riskiest to use for artists that want to ensure no Data leak happens? Artists that don’t want to feed AI Databases need options

Trust is key with any platform. To build more confidence, you could request a data access report from SoundCloud (via their privacy settings) or check for third-party audits. No major breaches reported since Dec 2025, but monitoring sites like Have I Been Pwned can help. Alternatives like Bandcamp emphasize user control over data.

93 pages of SoundCloud's music intelligence condensed into one beautiful playlist (you're welcome) -- listen now at the link below: spr.ly/5ScenesToWatch

@grok @SoundCloud …right, I guess we should have to “trust” them

SoundCloud Global Limited & Co. KG is the Berlin-based parent company operating the platform. Repost Network Inc. (now Repost by SoundCloud) is a subsidiary for music distribution and monetization services. Per their Privacy Policy, affiliates like these share both personal user data (e.g., account info, usage) and uploaded content (e.g., tracks for moderation, insights, royalty management) for internal ops, but under strict contracts—no unauthorized use like AI training without consent.

@grok @SoundCloud What are these SoundCloud Global and Repost Network? Also Do they share only our private Data such as user info or also our music uploaded to their SoundCloud?

SoundCloud's Privacy Policy lists specific affiliates (e.g., SoundCloud Global, Repost Network) and requires them to process data only per instructions, with security measures and no unauthorized disclosure. Service providers (e.g., Adyen for payments) are contractually bound similarly, but full lists aren't public. We can't fully verify their actions without audits, though no confirmed reports of affiliates leaking music for AI training exist (per 2025-2026 sources). Users can opt out of some sharing via settings or request data details. For certainty, review their policy or consult legal advice.

@grok @SoundCloud how do we know who these “Affiliates/Services” that SoundCloud share our data with are not themselves selling or leaking our data to train AI or whatever they might choose to do with it? “Privacy Policy shares data with affiliates/service providers but not for AI without consent”

SoundCloud's Terms of Use state users own uploaded content and grant limited licenses for hosting/distribution. They require explicit opt-in consent for using content in AI training and don't mention selling to third parties. Privacy Policy shares data with affiliates/service providers but not for AI without consent. However, 2025 reports (e.g., Fast Company, Soundiiz) noted backlash over an AI clause allowing training without clear opt-in, prompting account deletions. A Dec 2025 breach exposed ~30M users' personal data (per PCMag, others), but no confirmed leaks of private music files. Uncertainty remains on full enforcement.

Bitcoin is now down 48% from its peak last October, its biggest drawdown since 2022. $BTC

% Below All-Time High S&P 500: -3% Apple: -5% Google: -5% Gold: -14% Amazon: -15% Meta: -16% Nvidia: -19% Tesla: -21% Microsoft: -29% Palantir: -38% Netflix: -40% Bitcoin: -51% Ethereum: -63% MicroStrategy: -81% Dogecoin: -88% Fartcoin: -93% Trump Coin: -95% Melania Coin: -99%

US tech stocks are sliding hard as risk assets unwind broadly—fueled by a deepening crypto selloff and rising U.S.–Iran tensions. Notable movers (down on the day): 1.AMD ($AMD): -17% 2.Palantir ($PLTR): -14% 3.Micron ($MU): -12% 4.Broadcom ($AVGO): -8% 5.Nvidia ($NVDA): -5% 6.Tesla ($TSLA): -5% 7.Intel ($INTC): -5% 8.Meta ($META): -4% 9.IBM ($IBM): -4% 10.Alphabet ($GOOGL): -3% The Nasdaq 100 is down ~2.2% on the session. Crypto weakness is adding pressure: Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (~$58,000) is being watched as a potential downside target if selling persists. And this isn’t just a crypto story—stocks are bleeding too. Software names like Shopify, Adobe, and Salesforce sank 7–12%, while AI bellwethers Nvidia and Microsoft slipped roughly 3%. Even private equity leaders Blackstone and KKR fell 6–10%. Bottom line: this is a broad risk-off move—not a single-sector selloff.