• Precise Market Analysis •

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US exports near capacity as WTI trades at $12–$15/b discount to Brent, driving Asia flows after Hormuz closure. ~10mn b/d offline, ~125mn bl stuck, vessel traffic drops from 135 to <10.

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Suezmax and Aframax availability in US Gulf at record lows. Asian refiners seeking alternatives drive Atlantic spot rates to new highs amid effective Hormuz closure.

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Japan to release ~8.5mn kl (53mn bl) from 26 March within ~80mn bl plan; ~1.4mn kl (8.8mn bl) extra joint stocks; total reserves equal 240 days demand.

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LNG spot charter rates have decreased across all vessel types this week, with the largest drop seen in X-DF/ME-GI vessels.

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The product tanker market is facing challenges due to regional tensions, with suppressed activity in the Middle East and firming rates in the UK Continent and Med markets. The North Handy market remains strong, while the Med MR market is active with bullish sentiment.

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The VLCC market firmed up this week, especially in the US Gulf, while the East faced challenges due to the Iran war. The Suezmax and Aframax markets showed resilience, with rates firming by week's end.

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Selective Hormuz transits emerge. Indian VLGCs Jag Vasant and Pine Gas sail close to Iran’s coast (via Qeshm/Larak), highlighting controlled routing amid ongoing disruption.

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China races to secure ~69.28mn bl of Iranian crude under a 30-day waiver (28mn bl SE Asia); independents lead buying vs. India. Prices shift from ~$6–7/bl discounts, while Sinopec cuts runs by ~5% and taps reserves (~50% ME exposure).

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Tanker values surge on war: VLCC resale implied at ~$189m (vs ~$175m broker) with stocks at 1.09x NAV. Outlook hinges on Hormuz reopening, with prolonged closure risking downside.

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Dry bulk defies chaos: Q1 BDI avg 1,906 (vs 911 YoY), Capes lead on strong iron ore/bauxite flows. Demand +~3%, fleet +3.6%. Tight balance, but upside capped despite a strong start.