Axis-of-Civilizations

Key points to keep in mind: 1) Iran can't unilaterally open the SoH: only the maritime insurance industry can. And it won't as long as a nuclear deal remains unnegotiated, as the threat of renewed military strikes remain. 2) In other words, best case it will still take months for the SoH to get back to pre-February 28 levels. 3) The US negotiating position has to shift from all stick to some stick/some carrot, because we've tried the stick alone and it wasn't enough to coerce strategic capitulation. And that carrot for Iran is $$$, either from unblocked assets or an easing of sanctions. 4) An Iranian commitment to 'never have a nuclear weapon' is about as dependable as a USG commitment not to attack Iran again. Any worthwhile nuclear deal needs IAEA w/Additional Protocol as a starting point. 5) Israel isn't going to stop in Southern Lebanon. 6) Iran is not going to let the US participate in digging out the HEU.