Tiago Yamada Rodriguez

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez

Tiago Yamada Rodriguez

@YamadaLuke21

US prediction markets observer. I map signals and structure. Distribution, execution, incentives. JP notes for builders on note. 米国予測市場を毎日1本で観測。日本語まとめはnoteへ。

Between probability and price Katılım Eylül 2024
651 Takip Edilen595 Takipçiler
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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Eventually, AI will follow prediction markets. AI produces answers. Markets produce confidence. Models can generate infinite narratives. Markets price the cost of being wrong. That is why probability becomes the default layer for decisions.
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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
This is something big. It’s either 10 billion or zero. Take the risk 👀👀 $GITLAWB
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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
$GITLAWB is probably going to give us the best vertical run of the year. Everything he’s done so far has just been a warm-up.
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Oasis
Oasis@oasis·
東京ドームの夜を思い出す… 半年前の今日 🇯🇵 Throwing back to #OasisLive25 at Tokyo Dome… Six months ago today 🇯🇵
Oasis tweet mediaOasis tweet media
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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Polymarket is starting to prove something important. It can add fees without killing growth. For a long time the story was volume. Now the story is becoming revenue too. That matters because a market that can keep growing while charging users starts to look less like an experiment and more like a real business.
dash@datadashboards

Polymarket is now pulling in $1M/day ($30M/month) in fees. This is ~25% of what Kalshi generated over the past month. Since first introducing fees in January, Polymarket’s volume has only trended upward - suggesting current levels (~$300M) could be sustainable.

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Polymarket is no longer only chasing volume. It is starting to look like a market with a real revenue engine. The important shift is not one big day of fees. It is that the platform is moving deeper into a model that can actually make money.
Wu Blockchain@WuBlockchain

Polymarket has entered a fully fee-based era, and its annual revenue may exceed $400 million. One of the largest prediction markets, Polymarket, has entered a fully fee-based era, with fees rising significantly over the past two days. On April 1, the latest full-day data shows fees reached $927k, implying an annualized fee run rate of ~$338 million for Polymarket. x.com/defioasis/stat…

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
More than 25B moved through prediction markets in March alone. The bigger point is not only growth. It is concentration. Kalshi and Polymarket still do most of the work. The category is getting bigger, but it is still being shaped by two platforms.
Predictefy@Predictefy

Prediction markets continue to scale, with billions in notional volume flowing across platforms in March. March Notional Volume: 1. @Kalshi - $13,070,245,831 2.@Polymarket - $10,572,416,290 3.@cryptocom - $629,694,488 4. @opinionlabsxyz - $496,219,750 5. @trylimitless - $468,788,721 6.@predictdotfun - $329,653,887 7. @MyriadMarkets - $54,948,210 8. @SX_Bet - $41,408,916 $25B+ traded last month alone, prediction markets are scaling faster than most realize.

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
【今日の米国予測市場トピック】 日本語まとめをnoteに更新しました。プロフor下記リンクからどうぞ。 「Kalshiでは暗号資産カテゴリが月間10億ドルを超えた」 note.com/tiagopredictio…
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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
A new high in transactions matters more than a new high in volume. Volume can come from a few large trades. A record in transactions usually means the market is being used more often. That is the real shift here. Prediction markets are becoming a repeated behavior, not only a place for occasional big events. But the structure is still concentrated. Polymarket and Kalshi still do almost all of the work.
Predictefy@Predictefy

Prediction market transactions have broke a new record reaching a new weekly high. Weekly Transactions: 1. @Polymarket - 27.36M 2. @Kalshi - 21.44M 3. @alphaarcade - 380.5K 4. @trylimitless - 300.2K 5. @MyriadMarkets - 247.37K 6. @predictdotfun - 93.7K 7. @opinionlabsxyz - 76.1K 8. @SX_Bet - 67.65K 9. @Forkast - 36.71K 10. @Gemini - 33.2K 50M+ weekly transactions, a new all-time high across leading prediction markets, surpassing the previous record of 47.2M.

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Kalshi still looks sports heavy, but the shape of the market is starting to change. Crypto crossing 1B for the month matters because it shows volume outside sports is no longer tiny. That is the bigger signal here. Kalshi is not only getting larger. It is getting broader.
John Wang@j0hnwang

Crypto is now the first non-sports category to crack $1 BILLION monthly volume on Kalshi since the 2024 Election Sports’ dominance on Kalshi is getting smaller and smaller everyday

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Polymarket looks different depending on what you measure. By user count, it still looks mostly retail. By volume, a much smaller group does most of the work. That is a useful reminder that user growth and trading power are not the same thing.
sealaunch intelligence@sealaunch_

Histogram charts of Polymarket users by trade frequency and volume traded. → Frequency: log-normal decay. Most users cluster at 2–10 trades and drop off sharply. → Volume: bell-shaped on a log scale, peaking at $600–$3,000. The right tail is tiny in users but dominant in volume.

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
ARK working with Kalshi matters for a simple reason. This pushes prediction markets closer to the research workflow of institutions. The shift is not only more trading. It is institutions asking for markets that help them read the economy, track business signals, and make decisions. That is what it looks like when prediction markets start moving from venue to analytical layer.
Wu Blockchain@WuBlockchain

Kalshi Sees Rising Institutional Demand for Prediction Markets, Partners with ARK Invest to Launch Research Markets Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, said that as institutional adoption of prediction markets grows, demand for a standardized market request pipeline is increasing. ARK Invest is now working with Kalshi through this pipeline to list markets for investment analysis, including non-farm payrolls, deficit-to-GDP ratios, and business KPIs. x.com/mansourtarek_/…

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
【今日の米国予測市場トピック】 日本語まとめをnoteに更新しました。プロフor下記リンクからどうぞ。 「米国予測市場　時間帯別の出来高で見えてくるもの」 note.com/tiagopredictio…
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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Kalshi was the biggest market last week. But the main point is simple. Most prediction market volume still comes from Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is bigger right now. But this is still a two player market.
CoinMarketCap@CoinMarketCap

Prediction Market Notional Volume hit $6.41B (+11.35%) last week. 🔹 Kalshi: $3.40B (+15.73%) 🔹 Polymarket: $2.54B (+8.55%) 🔹 Crypto(.)com: $158.66M (+1.64%) 🔹 Opinion: $128.54M (+64.97%) 🔹 Limitless: $98.46M (-23.16%) 🔹 Predict: $60.33M (-33.81%) 🔹 Overtime: $4.04M (-0.07%) 🔹 Others: $19.27M (-6.50%)

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
【今日の米国予測市場トピック】 日本語まとめをnoteに更新しました。プロフor下記リンクからどうぞ。 「現在の予測市場はまだ万能ではない」 note.com/tiagopredictio…
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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Prediction markets are useful, but not magic. Looking at 14 major elections, they got 9 right with one day left. That is good enough to take seriously, and weak enough to stay humble.
Parity@PredictParity

How accurate are prediction markets on major elections? It got 9 out of 14 correct, 64% Correct: 1. 🇺🇸 US 2024 / 54.5% 2. 🇰🇷 South Korea 2025 / 95% 3. 🇨🇦 Canada 2025 / 92% 4. 🇵🇹 Portugal 2026 / 99.5% 5. 🇮🇪 Ireland 2025 / 93.5% 6. 🇳🇴 Norway 2025 / 94% 7. 🇦🇺 Australia 2025 /89.5% 8. 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 2026 / 93.5% 9. 🇨🇱 Chile 2025 /93% Missed: 10. 🇷🇴 Romania / Simion 44.5% 11. 🇵🇱 Poland / Trzaskowski 34.5% 12. 🇪🇨 Ecuador / González 41% 13. 🇭🇳 Honduras / Nasralla 12.5% 14. 🇹🇭 Thailand / People’s Party 20% Calculated using Polymarket and Kalshi odds 1 day before resolution.

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Prediction markets are no longer a one platform story. Kalshi is leading in size. Polymarket is leading in activity. One is stronger in capital. The other is stronger in flow. This market is now being shaped by two big platforms, not one.
PJ@Prithvir12

Prediction Market Weekly Update Notional Volume 1. @Kalshi $3.40b 2. @Polymarket $2.54b 3. @cryptocom $158.7m 4. @Opinionlabsxyz $128.5m 5. @Limitless $98.5m 6. @predictdotfun $60.3m 7. Other $23.5m 8. @overtime $4.0m Total $6.41b Open Interest 1. @Kalshi $497.0m 2. @Polymarket $448.7m 3. @predictdotfun $14.9m 4. @Opinionlabsxyz $13.8m 5. Other $5.3m 6. @Limitless $0.6m Total $980.3m Transactions 1. @Polymarket 27.36m 2. @Kalshi 21.44m 3. Other 353.8k 4. @Limitless 300.3k 5. @predictdotfun 93.8k 6. @Opinionlabsxyz 76.1k 7. @overtime 12.4k Total 49.64m Users 1. @Polymarket 377.8k 2. @Limitless 11.3k 3. @predictdotfun 4.9k 4. @Opinionlabsxyz 4.5k 5. Other 1.6k 6. @overtime 489 Total 400.6k I post these every week Lmk what other data is interesting to add h/t @datadashboards for the @Dune dashboard Use @tradefoxai to trade all from one interface

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
Kalshi getting added to CoinMarketCap matters for a simple reason. It puts a major US platform on a much bigger discovery surface. More comparison. More visibility. More direct flow.
CoinMarketCap@CoinMarketCap

🚨 Kalshi is officially LIVE on CoinMarketCap! 🚨 Our Prediction Market tracker just got even bigger. We’re bringing you all the major platforms under one roof! Starting today, you can: 🇺🇸 Track fully regulated US markets 📊 Compare real-time odds and trends across categories ⚡️ Jump straight to Kalshi with a single click

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Tiago Yamada Rodriguez
Tiago Yamada Rodriguez@YamadaLuke21·
【今日の米国予測市場トピック】 日本語まとめをnoteに更新しました。プロフor下記リンクからどうぞ。 「KalshiがMarch Madnessで記録的な出来高」 note.com/tiagopredictio…
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