Yanger Longkumer

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Yanger Longkumer

Yanger Longkumer

@YangerINC

Rave & Rant

Dimapur, Nagaland, India. Katılım Mart 2019
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Yanger Longkumer
Yanger Longkumer@YangerINC·
Ma'am didn't win, SIR won, Democracy lost.
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Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi@RahulGandhi·
I travelled through Great Nicobar today. These are the most extraordinary forests I have ever seen in my life. Trees older than memory. Forests that took generations to grow. The people on this island are equally beautiful - both the adivasi communities and the settlers - but they are being robbed of what is rightfully theirs. The government calls what it is doing here a “Project.” What I have seen is not a project. It is millions of trees marked for the axe. It is 160 square kilometres of rainforest condemned to die. It is communities that have been ignored while their homes have been snatched away. This is not development. This is destruction dressed in development’s language. So I will say it plainly, and I will keep saying it: what is being done in Great Nicobar is one of the biggest scams and gravest crimes against this country’s natural and tribal heritage in our lifetime. It must be stopped. And it can be stopped - if Indians choose to see what I have seen.
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Yanger Longkumer
Yanger Longkumer@YangerINC·
Capitulation comes with a price... paid in "Top Dollar"
Dr. Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney

The Price of Blinking: India’s Oil Reversal India’s decision to scale back Russian oil imports under U.S. pressure from autumn 2025 has imposed a significant economic cost running into billions of dollars in just a few months. (For every $1 increase in the price of a Brent crude barrel, India’s annual oil import bill increases by approximately $1.5 billion to $2 billion.) The losses stem from a sharp reversal in pricing dynamics. Between spring 2022 and autumn 2025, India benefited from deeply discounted Russian crude — typically $10–$15 per barrel below Brent — secured through longer-term contracts. By significantly reducing these purchases, India forfeited its cheapest and most stable energy supplies. When the Iran war triggered a global supply shock in March 2026, India — after the U.S. issued sanctions waivers — returned to Russian oil, but under far worse conditions. Instead of discounted contracts, Indian refiners had to rely on spot purchases, competing with other buyers. They also had to pay “emergency premiums” of $5–$15 per barrel above benchmark prices in some instances. Three cost drivers explain the losses: · Missed discounts: Forgone savings during the period of reduced Russian imports. · Higher-cost alternatives: More expensive crude sourced from other suppliers. · Emergency purchases: Panic buying during the Hormuz blockade at significantly elevated global prices. Critically, the market flipped: Russian oil, once discounted, began trading at premiums of $5–$15 above Brent due to supply disruptions and its logistical advantage outside the Hormuz chokepoint. In effect, India went from buying Russian crude cheaply for strategic savings to purchasing it at a premium for sheer availability. The result is not just lost savings but a structural shift — from optimizing energy imports to panic buying — leaving India paying “top dollar” for what had been its most economical supply.

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Yanger Longkumer
Yanger Longkumer@YangerINC·
US "Winnings" 🧵
Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW

Very little in the Six Week War - capped off by the Desert Two debacle in Isfahan - could be considered a "tactical success" at all. We got stiff-armed by a well-prepared regional power, ran out of ammo, and the Chinese are once again about to win by doing absolutely nothing.⬇️ Let's actually assess this in a rational manner, working my best guess as to what our objectives actually were during this operation - which is in and of itself a difficult thing to figure out given they seemed to change daily because nobody at the Pentagon was willing to impose any kind of strategic discipline on Trump. So, uh, let's break this down by lines of effort because there were several. Line of Effort 1: Strategic neutralization of Iran as a threat vector to Israel and other US interests and forces in the Middle East OBJ 1.1: Regime change - FAILED. Iranian government as currently constituted ("regime") consolidated power; "Khamenei replaced with Khamenei". No significant anti-regime protests recorded. OBJ 1.2: Secure US/Israeli air supremacy over central Iran - FAILED. Coalition remained dependent on standoff weapons for strikes outside border regions; only apparent attempt to fly massed air sorties into central Iran resulted in lost aircraft and near-disaster. Most Coalition air assets withdrawn to inconvenient bases far from Iran due to missile threat and reliant on extensive tanker support to operate at low sortie rates. OBJ 1.3: Coerce existing regime to align with US strategic interests - FAILED. Iranian hardliners empowered by perceived victory against the United States and Israel; more moderate factions have aligned with hardliners. OBJ 1.4: Isolate Iran from great power support (Russia/China) - FAILED. Russia and China continue to provide substantial economic and military support to Iran. Line of Effort 2: Destruction of the Iranian WMD program OBJ 2.1: Seize Iranian enriched uranium stockpile - FAILED. Attempted SOF raid ended in debacle. OBJ 2.2: Destroy Iranian uranium enrichment capability - FAILED. Iranian enrichment capability is in extremely hardened underground facilities which do not appear to have sustained significant damage from Coalition attacks. OBJ 2.3: Destroy Iranian industrial pipeline to manufacture nuclear warheads - UNKNOWN. Little data exists here outside of raw speculation. Line of Effort 3: Destruction of Iranian means of coercion against Israel and US interests in the Middle East OBJ 3.1: Destroy Iranian missile force - FAILED. Iranian ballistic, cruise, and drone capabilities very much intact. OBJ 3.2: Destroy Iranian aerial forces - FAILED. Iranian tactical aviation intact; transport and logistics aircraft destroyed on the ground by Coalition forces were of limited tactical utility. OBJ 3.3: Destroy Iranian naval forces - FAILED. IRGCN mosquito fleet currently the dominant naval power in the Persian Gulf; naval balance of power in the key Persian Gulf and Hormuz region has shifted AGAINST the United States and allies. OBJ 3.4: Destroy Iranian regional proxies - FAILED. Iranian regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon showed resilience well beyond that expected by analysts. OBJ 3.5: Prevent capture of Coalition aircrew by Iran - QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Thanks to strategically ruinous expenditures of standoff weapons, exposure of Coalition aircraft to Iranian air defenses was minimized, preventing Iran from taking POWs. Line of Effort 4: Protect Israel, friendly Gulf Arab regimes, US military forces, and broader US interests from Iranian retaliation OBJ 4.1: Secure oil shipment through Strait of Hormuz - FAILED. Iran secured control of the Strait of Hormuz and continues to export oil despite attempted blockade. OBJ 4.2: Disrupt Iranian retaliatory strikes - FAILED. Coalition strikes did little to nothing to disrupt Iranian missile and drone launches. OBJ 4.3: Degrade Iranian retaliatory strikes on Coalition military assets in theater - FAILED. US forces withdrew to bases at operational standoff from Iran rather than contest positions inside SRBM range, ceding influence over the strategically critical Persian Gulf to Iran rather than risk friendly casualties. Iranian drones and MRBMs caused painful if not decisive losses to Coalition assets throughout the war. OBJ 4.4: Prevent Iranian counter-value coercion against friendly Gulf Arab regimes - FAILED. Iran struck countervalue targets in the Arab states at will and continues to hold them at great risk; Qatar (previously home to a massive US presence) appears to have given Iran a massive tributary payment rather than face further attacks. OBJ 4.5: Prevent Iranian strikes against Coalition proxies in theater. - FAILED. Iran effectively struck Iraqi Kurdish militias being positioned as a proxy force, leading to the Kurds concluding a separate peace with Iran and withdrawing from the conflict despite extensive claims in Iranian territory. OBJ 4.6: Prevent second-order economic effects of the war in the United States - QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Stock market apparently unable or unwilling to believe magnitude of ongoing energy supply disruptions; jawboning and frequent false reports by the Trump Administration of imminent peace and successful negotiations reduced market turmoil at the cost of the long-term credibility of the US government. In summary: Deep failures across all lines of effort and very few objectives accomplished.

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Yanger Longkumer
Yanger Longkumer@YangerINC·
More crude means more fuel for domestic consumption. Even a worst case scenario of zero crude export for months, will result in irreversible damage equivalent to just a fraction of production capacity. What do you think the damage to your allies would be in the meantime?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent@SecScottBessent

While the surviving IRGC Leaders are trapped like drowning rats in a sewage pipe, Iran’s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE. Pumping will soon collapse. GASOLINE SHORTAGES IN IRAN NEXT!

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Sarah Wilkinson
Sarah Wilkinson@swilkinsonbc·
Australian surgeon returns to Rafah’s field hospital for the 4th time: leaving my Palestinian colleagues was humanly unacceptable, he says
Sarah Wilkinson tweet media
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Yanger Longkumer
Yanger Longkumer@YangerINC·
This would be the standard procedure, in Utopia. In the real world, the speaker/chair of the house is the law. Either the turncoats will split the party through some state sponsored ninja play or the legal process will drag on beyond their tenures.
Arvind Gunasekar@arvindgunasekar

Constitutional bench judgment in Maharashtra case has stated clearly that the original political party has to merge with another party, not just the Parliamentary party of the party.

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