@riskuncertain @TheShortBear u r uncertainty trader. fluff and politics offer uncertainty, right?
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Yang L
178 posts
@TheShortBear CHARTS!
Keep posting charts like these @TheShortBear we want to see charting analisis, not macro fluff or politics. It may be interesting but we want trading
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$RKLB
That gap down really cost me huge.
Very frustrating few months.
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@ATSadhale @TheOneLanceB with all respect honestly, how much have you made in the markets? just curious. Because he has made over 100M dollars as noted in his profile.
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@TheOneLanceB What kind of a misleading tweet is this? In 2008 $SMH was at $15. A $150 move was 1000% then. Currently a $150 move in $SMH is 40%.
I agree that the ability to catch breakouts is an incredibly powerful tool, but giving this example was misleading at best.
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It took $SMH almost 15 years to go up $150 between 2008 and 2022.
$SMH has moved up that same $150 in the last month.
What are the lessons?
-Long-term compounding is powerful.
-The ability to time breakouts is unfathomably powerful.
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Pretty sure I just read “if you’re a profitable trader but you’re limited due to not actually being a profitable trader” 🤣
Ellis Dillinger 💜@EllyDtrades
If you’re a profitable trader but you’re limited due to financial reasons. You are about to retire your whole family. Never been a better time to lock in.
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@traderkylec hi kyle, did you stop updating on profit.ly your trades? We always found that very helpful, thanks
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If you ever feel like a bad trader or investor, just remember people were buying $RIVN at $170 getting ready for the “next Tesla” 💀
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@Jackaroo_Trades jack, thanks for always posting on profitly and showing all your trades there. Your transparency on profitly is unparalleled. We admire you for that and it's an incredible learning experience to see your trades on profitly.
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Normies in the comments dunking on ShortBear has to be the funniest FinTwit exchange in years 🤣
Allow me to explain the 3 main factors that make this so funny to me:
1. ShortBear is too tall to dunk on.
2. ShortBear has a better track record than just about anyone on earth.
3. Most of the dunkers think the move in silver is just starting rather than approaching an end (at least near-term).
NEVER EVER has the START of a move in a millennia-old asset class looked like this.
Find me one chart.
THE SHORT BEAR@TheShortBear
All out. -13% on Silver, that's it, took it off. Short from mid 93s, out 102s equivalent. Still think overall the trade is valid and data backed, simply did not work and big size did the rest. Prior $GLD and $SLV gains along the way account for 55-60% of this loss, so effectively lost 6.5% across the trades. (or gave back around $SNDK trade equivalent alternatively depending if you want to go by year or by asset class) Historical times, as extended as in 1980, 50y ago, backed by ema extension data, time spent over ema, volume and more. Still no dice. If I had to take it again I'd be a bit smaller to begin and scale better but overall would not do much different. Basically decided to take the hit to make it a big slap rather than something that could change my path and long-term plan. The focus remains latin america and Ethereum and I cant let stubbornness or a martingale stop me from letting these evolve. This is likely lower in a short period but I will say I could also see something different happen. inventories are running low quickly, at 4-5%+ pace each day. China price premium is leading to a massive outflow and I am hearing of big banks like UBS stuck short with major size. As these shorts are covered, retail chases and major nations stockpile, there is a chance we could completely detach and see a quick move into 130+. That is the flip side of this bet and what I want to avoid. We are going into the weekend, over 100$, with a massive volume big green bar, the risk you take on over the weekend is massive if you aren't structured with upside protection. The worst case I see is a sort of 108-112 gap up and spray into 120s+. Likely? Not the likeliest path, but possible and even a 10-20% chance is not worth giving up on the major longer term compounding journey. Again make no mistake, longing here is playing with fire. Data indicating prior instances lead to 30%+ losses over the next mid term period with strong 15%+ losses within weeks. NEXT!
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@martinlukkt GREAT WORK! is it possible to share entry and exits on chart for our learning? thanks!
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My first $100k trade.
Closed my shorts on $SLV and $GLD.
Very unfortunate I can't keep my promise of holding into the 50 EMA. May revisit if there is any rebound.
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@Edge_Bolt @TheShortBear where did he initiate short? can't find the red arrows, thnx
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Gold $GLD
About to do it I would think.
Short term and mid term data strongly tilted downward.
Position on, would like more.
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Pretty clear blowoff afterhours yesterday which I thought would lead to a full implosion overnight, hence my position into the close. :
Text excerpt:
...
TSB. 19:17
-'Dinner🥘'
-'All in though'
A. 19:18
-'All in'
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@sebthebjork @elonmusk @PeterDiamandis i heard a company called starlink sending satellites into orbit. how many competitors in this field can there be?
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@elonmusk @PeterDiamandis Imagine being a competitor, having to pay 5x the prices of Elon's companies to launch stuff into space 😅
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By 2029, Google plans to run part of its AI operations on nuclear power, utilizing 615 MW of carbon-free energy.
This is the new status symbol of tech giants.
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@SkewedSigma @TheShortBear what is shortbear account size? how do we find out?
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$BABA
proceeded to sell down my position to a minority stake.
Now fully derisked, with a rest in order to respect the trend.
A trade spanning 2-3 years for me with massive volatility. Despite this volatility, the risk-adjusted value provided was so large, that the prospects were strong.
$BABA now trades at a 125% premium to those prices.
What was a 10pe has become a 20pe+ and other positions are now more attractive. The straight line rise from 120 to 180 and dynamic EV of this position is now approaching negative on a short to mid term basis and thus I am being proactive.
Just like most of the positions I put on for longer term swings, the value is used as the foundation to dictate the size and likely bottom, while the rest is done on a technical basis to manage leverage risks.
This mega gap for $BABA will certainly be watched by other big Chinese companies and could lead to a cascade of Chinese AI capex news for the rest of the players.
My primary focus now lies almost entirely on $PDD, as I perceive it to be the most mispriced among the large-cap Chinese stocks.
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@SpeculatorWins hi, what is your account size? i'm asking for obvious reasons, with a positive intention, thank you
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The irony of the “easy money trades” concept shared by SMB capital circle is that:
They are often far more difficult to make money from than the big blockbuster trades in my experience,
Including all processes related to: idea discovery (scanning), trade execution, risk management, and robust rule creation (to achieve more consistent results)…
Two Jesse Livermore quotes come to mind when reflecting on my failure to integrate “easy money trades” into my trading over the last few months:
1) “The big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements—that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”
2) “It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”
- (often due to their ignorance regarding the truth in the first quote)
It has generally been my experience that these theoretically easy, repeatable, fast turnover trades, are both: A) very difficult to find, and execute on (not so easy…), and B) that they are much lower expected value bets, if even positive EV at all; and the only time they have a really positive EV, is when they are setup in the context of a major movement…
In which case, why the fuck should I even bother…?
My experience with this also checks out with game theory, in that:
1) Almost everyone wants to make money here and now, and at a repeatable and high frequency (as opposed to spontaneously and in large lump sums)
2) That widespread desire then results in a very crowded, and competitive environment for those repeatable trades (lower timeframes); resulting in more noise, and lower EV bets in these scenarios.
If u study the best performance periods of the best market wizards… it is often the case that they traded only the big opportunities, with big size/ risk, and completely passed on any of the small fry, repeatable, “easy money” trades.
With that said, i might be done trying to go after “easy money trades” for good, as what i really want from markets is to make huge sums of money…
and between my experience, market wizards’ experience, and my own logic…
going after “easy money trades” does not seem like a productive means to achieve that goal; rather, it seems like a means to achieve: being a busy body, clicking buttons for fun, damaging mental capital, and taking negative EV bets (all things accounted for).
Ed Seykota: “Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market.”
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@TheShortBear is it possible to have an insight to your networth? thanks
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You will always see me talking a lot about my biggest positions or increasing positions.
It was $MELI years ago, then $BABA... Now $UNH
The two former ones are my biggest winners ever and constitute a large part of my current net worth.
I start a position, I investigate and then use the findings to decide on adds or cuts.
I share my findings because I want to force myself to have a solid work product and for any of my now 150k+ followers to critic my work and allow me to be closer to the objective truth.
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@Steven1_994 @SuccessTraderUS steven, can you show entry picture and if entry at $118, where would you get out if don't work out, thanks! always appreciate ur posts,
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first solid trade in 2025+3.2m with @SuccessTraderUS between yesterday and today. had position overnight in the 118s/options covered everything around 98-101. left too much on the table. it should be a 10m trade #SuccessTraderSponsor
#SuccessTraderPartner
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@MoistMango12 hi, great work! could you post your 2024 pnl curve just so we can have a better idea of the progression? thanks!
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Been avoiding posting pnl tweets but inspired by everyone's yearly pnl posts, goals and reviews I decided to post mine.
Approximately +7.4m on the year, which equates to roughly a 250% return on trading assets.
An insane year in terms of opportunity set. I benefited a lot this year from my multi strategy/market/timeframe approach. There was opportunity galore. I am very happy with the headline figure, but reality is that +1000% or even much higher was possible without a doubt.
My August drawdown that I tweeted about cost a lot in raw cost, but also in opportunity cost. Definitely a focus going forward to avoid this.
One goal I have been slowly working towards over the past few years has been to get comfortable holding more assets in my trading accounts, not leaning on keeping the account small as a crutch for poor risk management. Despite my large drawdown I was never at risk of blowing up this year, so really happy with my progression on this.
In terms of my actual trading a lot of skills that I built 2021-2024 really started to pay off and it kind of felt like I had a "base breakout". A lot of things felt like they came together nicely, coupled with the good market of course.
Going forward my focus will continue to be on big opportunities and how to maximize them. That said I also want to improve my consistency day-to-day/week-to-week. I would like to avoid the ugly equity curve I produced this year.
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+$5.1M Net Profit in 2024
I made a fortune back in 2021 and never thought another year with that many opportunities would happen again!!
Fun facts about my trades in 2024:
1. I took nearly 2 months of vacation in total this year, but I still managed to trade over 368M shares! I'm pretty sure my broker loves me. LMAO.
2. I nearly blew up my account on Oct 15th. Yes, I got $drug 'ed. I got out under $20, but my position size was just too big. I lost a 7-figure profit on this but learned a valuable lesson.
3. I had a record 37-day winning streak this year and made nearly $2.3M during this streak.
4. My gross profit before fees is over $7.26M. The amount of $$ I spent on borrow and overnight fees is just ridiculous.
Overall, I am very grateful for my performance this year, but at the same time, I feel like I underperformed, to be honest. It was another year with great lessons, and I’m hoping for another great year in 2025.
Wishing my fellow traders a year of clarity, focus, and unparalleled success!!
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@Steven1_994 @SuccessTraderUS dux man, you truly special. Amongst those who post on twitter, you r truly talented. The size, the execution, the consistency in every big play. I'm happy for you, u probably transformed ur gift in competitive gaming to stocks seamlessly. u r gifted. It's very cool have u around.
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+1.2m $QUBT did get to size okay. here is the chart @SuccessTraderUS almost bottom ticked
Holiday sale
stevendux.lpages.co/holiday-sale/
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@traderkylec Hi Kyle, thanks for the post! We can;t see the details of the trades on profitly.com, many display " trades by centerpoint". Is there another place we can see the entries and exits of your trades? thnx
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@thelaptoplegend we really appreciate your posting pnl and charts everyday. it's probably the most valuable posts a trader can do for any community. Thank you for this.
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+$52k, man what an epic bounce back day. Could've performed better, but regardless had spectacular recognition early on some sick setups. No charts today tho sorry guys can't have some scrubs stealin my edge 😂😂
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