Yash Raghavjee, CFA, CMT

Helping you navigate the financial landscape with personalized strategies and expert guidance. At Sanlam Private Wealth, I’m committed to preserving and growing your wealth, ensuring your financial goals are not just met, but exceeded. Let's build your legacy together.

BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 has officially ended its streak of 497 trading days above its 200-day average, the second-longest streak in history. Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 12th, 2023. After the previous stretch of ~450 days finished in January 2022, the Nasdaq 100 lost -5.7% over the next 2 weeks and -22.0% over the next year. Every time the index has closed below its 200-day moving average after a long run and subsequently dropped over -3.5% within 2 weeks, a bear market followed, according to Sentimentrader. On the other hand, when the decline was less than -3.5% within 2 weeks, the index saw positive returns over the next year. History suggests the next 2 weeks are key for the market.

Starting 2025, the S&P 500 is at 5882, up 23.3% for 2024. With dividends+buybacks increasing 11.3% & earnings up 9.9%, the equity risk premium stands at 4.33%. Adding in the ten-year treasury rate of 4.58% yields an expected return of 8.91% for US stocks. Damodaran.com

A yr ago the S&P 500 was up 'only' 21.0% and all we heard was how this one of was the weakest first yr to a new bull ever and it meant it was due to end. We pushed back and said no, year 2 will play catch up. Now up 62.6% and in line with the avg bull two years in at 58%.

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves. Peter Lynch

The odds of a 50 basis point interest rate cut this week have gone from 2% to 59% in a matter of hours. But, there was no new material economic data or guidance from the Fed. A 25 basis point rate cut was the expectation until a few hours ago. So what happened? (a thread)

Facts

not selling AGL whilst BHP was bidding, in hope of further uplift is probably one of the costliest mistakes you could've made. now down 25% since the highs of R640

The longest yield curve inversion in history has ended w/ the 10-yr Treasury yield (3.77%) now 1 bps above the 2-Yr yield (3.76%). Historically, the flip back to positive after a long inversion has occurred near the start of recessions. Chart of the Day: bilello.blog/2024/the-longe…

BREAKING: Andrea Kimi Antonelli to race for Mercedes from 2025! #F1

After 2 over years (the longest ever), the 10 Year - 2 Year Yield Spread is no longer inverted. Previously, periods of inversion have been followed several months later by a technical recession. Is this time different?

For example, if that R30 000 were instead left in the retirement pot and compounded annually at a 10% return rate, it could grow to approximately R201 880 over 20 years. This demonstrates the potential future value of the funds that might be lost by withdrawing them early.

2 pot system It's important to consider the long-term implications of making such a withdrawal. If a member decides to withdraw the full R30 000 now and forgoes reinvesting it, the opportunity cost could be significant.

Love this

S&P 493 EPS Growth Expected to About Match That of the Mag 7 by Q4 $RSP $SPY @seekingalpha seekingalpha.com/article/471563…

the headline everyone has been waiting for!

Over the last 10 trading days, we’ve experienced the biggest volatility crash in history, with the $VIX declining 62% (from 38.57 to 14.65). We’ve never seen market participants move from a state of panic to a state of calm this fast. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=NeD5dR…

watch it happen

these numbers aren't playing ..

The best performing subsectors in the S&P 500 so far in August were consumer staples and healthcare, classic “defensive” areas. In contrast, the worst-performing were cyclical areas such as consumer discretionary, energy and materials.