Yashar Ali 🐘

So then the IRGC, lmao. The Pakistan or Egypt model is what some of us have flagged as the likely outcome — long before the war even started. And before anyone comes at me: he’s the one who said “no mullahs.” People think that automatically includes the IRGC, but it doesn’t. The IRGC may have been founded to protect the Islamic revolution and the power of the Supreme Leader but it has metastasized into a parallel state: controlling military operations, a sprawling economic empire worth hundreds of billions, and one of the region’s most sophisticated intelligence apparatuses. It doesn’t dissolve because someone utters the words “no mullahs.” The IRGC’s entrenchment is structural and not reliant on an ideological entrenchment. You can remove every cleric from power and the Guards remain — with their bases, their bonyads, their foreign networks, and their weapons. If you don’t understand that the IRGC is a sovereign economic entity, you don’t understand Iran. So many of you don’t know a thing about Iran and just keep talking nonsense.

Regime Change in Iran means no Mullahs

This is probably accurate; it's certainly what happened during the tanker war. But the time frame here is also months or years -- not weeks. Just because we can claw back control of the Strait from Iran over time and at great cost will not protect economies in the interim.

NEW: Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.

Notice that the military action in Iran has NOT precipitated a refugee crisis Because A) Civilians are not being targeted B) Iranians want to stay and rebuild their country post regime