Yellow Cat
1.6K posts

Yellow Cat
@YellowCatCap
Equities, jumps on every dip


It appears the market no longer buys ridiculous forecasts

"If the idea is not making money within months or a couple quarters — I'm wrong. Full stop. I'm cutting it." @orrdavid Ex-poker pro. Hedge fund founder. 40%+ annualized. "In poker the feedback loop is so fast that within even a session you've made so many bets. I have way more reps than most fund managers." "There's that saying — you'd rather be right than make money. Poker beats that out of you." Most fund managers stay wrong for years. They'll hold a losing position for three years and keep morphing the story. Poker doesn't let you do that. Neither does David.




In leveraged loans, EBITDA add-backs now reduce reported leverage at issuance by roughly 1.2 turns & larger in direct lending at 1.9 turns. For both the gap is ~double vs ‘15. The result? New issue debt/EBITDA of 4.6x (lev loans) & 5.0x (direct lending) is actually 5.9x & 6.9x.

"We’re tracking 190GW across 777 large data centers and AI factories (>50MW) announced since 2024. At least 16GW of capacity is slated to come online in 2026 across roughly 140 projects. Yet only about 5GW is currently under construction. Around 11GW remains in the announced stage with no visible construction progress, despite typical build timelines of 12–18 months. "In 2025, 26% of expected capacity slipped, and another 10% of projects pushed back their commercial operation dates without much notice. Given that track record, it wouldn’t be surprising if 30–50% of the capacity slated for 2026 ends up delayed." @climatetech_vc



$NVDA was a much better buy when everyone was calling it a bubble in 2023 than it is now that every value guy is taking a look. There is a lesson there that nobody will learn.







