@aleabitoreddit Seriously thank you for all your wisdom and insight 🤍🤍🤍
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yasso333
1.6K posts
yasso333
@Yhamwi
Tech enthusiast, truth seeker, and humor lover. Navigating the digital world with a dash of sarcasm and a sprinkle of curiosity.
Katılım Şubat 2011
931 Takip Edilen130 Takipçiler
Yes, markets might have missed this with $SIVE + $GFS SCALE.
The inclusion of $SIVE as 1 of 2 public laser suppliers in $GFS ecosystem image presentation is a highly bullish indicator for Sivers.
Whenever semis like $AMD (using $GFS for CPO), builds their optical solutions with GlobalFoundries.
Sivers is the likely light source for their buildout and powers companies like $AMD -> Hyperscalers.
The hyperscaler buildout with CPO flows down to this tiny $1.7B MC laser light source in $SIVE.
siflower@siflower
@aleabitoreddit Today GFS announced its SCALE™ solution, and went up 4.3%. This is bullish for $SIVE.
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yasso333 retweetledi
The best performing thematic basket in our universe since the recent market lows is our “AI Power Plumbing” basket - comprised of analog semis names making capacitors, PSUs, inductors, magnetics, MLCCs and discrete power semis.
We were a bit early to this - at the end of 2024 , we flagged the whole analog stack between the grid and the GPU as boring, deeply cyclical, and an asymmetric corner of the AI buildout the market kept ignoring because of a dual China/Auto-cycle overhang. It took a little longer than we anticipated, but the analog cycle finally turned and content per server keeps climbing.
Names like TXN, MCHP, STM, ON, AOSL, VSH, DIOD, ADI, Infineon, MPWR, VICR, Murata Manufacturing, TDK, ALGM, WOLF, Nippon Chemicon, Sumida etc…a lot of quality names that still have a long way to go to match the re-rating of names in memory, optics and compute.
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April was one hell of a month, the most canonical event for sure was April 7 when the ‘Strait of Hormuz opened’ and we were off to the races.
Here is an update of how my portfolio is holding up this month:
Core holdings (75% allocation)
[For this exercise all entries are equally weighted, in reality they are not]
Photonics + 90.67%
$SIVE -> +284%
$AAOI -> + 77%
$MRVL -> +54% (Trimmed 25%)
$AEHR -> +85% (Trimmed 25%)
$IQE -> -6% (Got in late April)
$AXTI -> + 50% (Sold 100%… took an F)
Memory + 54.67%
$MU + 48%
$SNDK +69%
Sk Hynix +47%
Foundry +23.50%
Win Semi +37%
$TSEM +10%
Chips +52.33%
$AMD + 66%
$ARM + 42%
$INTC + 49%
NeoClouds +60%
$NBIS +60% (2 trades– exited mid April at +48%, re-entered late April +12%)
Equally weighted core holdings performance = 64.85%
New holdings 25% allocation (since mid April )
$PDFS +2%
$LPKF +60%
$M7U + 13%
$NVTS + 14%
$LWLG + 23%
$POET - 15% (still holding)
Equally weighted new holdings performance + 16.17%
Plus some trades on the side… TRT +80%, XML +60%
My portfolio is highly concentrated on the AI buildout, photonics names are doing the heavy lifting. $SIVE alone is making me escape out of the permanent underclass
- Thanks S.
I only do common stocks and margin up to 30% when a fire sale presents itself.
How did you do in April?
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yasso333 retweetledi
Sundar on the call: $GOOG is compute constrained, cloud revenue would have been higher if they could meet demand
CFO guided 2027 capex up “substantially” over 2026
Street modeling +10%
I’m at +20-30%
$460B backlog doesn’t build itself anon
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Once SpaceX IPOs, one of the largest pair trades equity L/S funds will be running is Tesla against SpaceX, because it will neutralize the Elon factor
Capital Flows@Globalflows
Here is the bigger picture thing that's about to take place We have a pipeline of IPOs that is the largest in history. OpenAI and Anthropic understand very well that you only get a few shots a decade to IPO into a highly liquid market that will pay you whatever you want. What are they going to do? They're going to release A TON of models into the largest IPOs in human history, which are going to take the world by storm so that everyone thinks the only way to survive the AI doom is by buying these companies. Anthropic has been dooming and their news has been causing a sell off in the software sector for over a year now. As we move into this stage of more liquidity, we are almost certainly going to see them release models and hype the entire market into the IPOs which will cause the entire AI space to rally into the IPOs just at the same time macro liquidity is expanding. Polymarket is pricing a coinflip but once they see liquidity rise and the uniqueness of the opportunity, they will shift their position very fast. If public markets pay them a higher valuation than private markets, they will change.
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Why does Trump seem unconcerned about the midterms?
Creative thinkers only.
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yasso333 retweetledi
1/ I’ve spent most of the last few weeks since the Google, Caltech papers to think about tradable implications around quantum computing and crypto
specifically what happens to the market around q-day
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Oh no he went full Peter Zeihan mode
It's over, max shorting Prof Jiang here
MDB@MDBitcoin
"Where are the servers of Bitcoin located?” - Prof Jiang That single question from Jiang shows the misunderstanding immediately. Bitcoin does not run on one company’s servers, Bitcoin runs on a distributed network of nodes spread across the world, which is exactly why it is hard to censor, shut down, or control, plus the mining system on top of it to protect it with energy. When someone frames Bitcoin like a centralized system, they are not critiquing Bitcoin as it is. They are critiquing a version of Bitcoin that exists only in their own confusion.
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yasso333 retweetledi
Jensen Huang just made the most direct argument of his career about why banning Nvidia from China is not a national security strategy but rather a national security failure.
Dwarkesh asks why Nvidia should be allowed to sell chips to China at all, if China would just use Huawei chips without them.
Jensen's answer was that in the absence of a better choice, you take the only choice you have.
As long as China has to settle for inferior chips, they are building their AI infrastructure on a foundation that is slower, harder to program, and years behind American technology.
The moment the US decides to ban Nvidia from selling to China entirely, it removes that disadvantage.
China is 40 percent of the global technology industry, Jensen said.
Conceding that market, handing it entirely to Huawei is a disservice to American national security, American technology leadership, and American economic power.
The data shows what has already happened since the export bans tightened.
Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market collapsed from 95 percent to 55 percent in 2025 and at one point during the H20 ban, Jensen himself declared Nvidia had gone from 95 percent share to zero on advanced accelerators.
The Trump administration's ban on H20 chips cost Nvidia an estimated 15 billion dollars in lost sales, plus a 4.5 billion dollar inventory write-down.
Without the export controls, Nvidia was on track to generate roughly 23 billion dollars in H20 chip sales to China in 2025 alone.
Meanwhile Huawei shipped 812,000 AI chips in 2025 and Beijing has now mandated that all state-funded data centers must switch to domestic chips.
Jensen's deeper argument is about the global stack, not the quarterly revenue.
When developers around the world build AI on CUDA, Nvidia's programming platform, they are building on American technology. When those AI models deploy into every country, the American stack goes with them.
Cutting Nvidia out of China does not slow Chinese AI but rather accelerates the construction of a parallel Chinese tech stack that, once built at scale, competes with American technology everywhere else in the world.
Milk Road AI@MilkRoadAI
Jensen Huang just issued an open challenge to every company claiming their chips are better than Nvidia and so far, nobody has shown up. Nvidia has the best total cost of ownership of any computing platform in the world, and he can prove it. He pointed to InferenceMAX, a publicly available benchmark and issued a direct challenge to Google TPU and Amazon Trainium to show up and demonstrate their cost advantage but neither has. Amazon's Trainium team claims 40 percent cost savings over Nvidia. Jensen's response was direct, go demonstrate it publicly on InferenceMAX Because they won't. Then Dwarkesh pressed him on the one thing that actually complicates the argument. Anthropic just signed a deal with Google and Broadcom for 3.5 gigawatts of TPU compute capacity, one of the largest infrastructure commitments in AI history with capacity coming online starting in 2027. That is a company actively choosing to run the majority of its future compute on something that is not Nvidia. Without Anthropic, he said, there would be no TPU and Trainium growth. It is one customer making one decision and that decision reflects Anthropic's unique relationship with Google as its primary cloud partner and investor, not a market-wide shift away from Nvidia. Dwarkesh pushed again, what about OpenAI building its own Titan chip and striking deals with AMD? Jensen says they are still vastly Nvidia, he said, and they will continue to be. Building a chip better than Nvidia is not just an engineering challenge, it requires years of software development, a full ecosystem of libraries and frameworks, and the ability to ship meaningful performance improvements every single year. Nvidia has been doing exactly that for over a decade. CUDA alone represents hundreds of billions of dollars of software investment that no competitor can replicate quickly. Look at the graveyard of AI chips that were announced with massive cost advantages and then quietly canceled, Jensen noted because claiming a performance edge in a press release and demonstrating it on a public benchmark are two different things.
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1.8 million views in 18 hours.
My second appearance on Diary of a CEO is being labeled “URGENT.”
Because what’s happening in the Iran war right now is not what people think.
Here are the three most important things I said:
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yasso333 retweetledi
Let me explain WHERE we are in the risk curve for equities. This will frame how aggressive you should be right now 🧵
RISK CURVE: The spectrum that traders allocate capital to higher risk vs lower risk names, which indicates how much money is in the system
Notice the chart below, it is all of the equities that have high yield debt vs the S&P500 as they just made an all time high. Why? Because traders understand the liquidity spigot is being turned on right now.
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First USA goals in this war is different than Israel goals
Primary goal:
Energy supply control and cutting off China from cheap discounted oil (exactly like they did in Venzu)
Secondary goals:
-no more enriched uranium (partial achieved)
-degrade Iran ballistic capability (partial)
-pushing Asia and Europe toward USA oil and gas (done)
-regime change (partial)
-USA economy stimulation to cover some of the recession to the lower half of population (done)
-increase dependency of gulf states and Saudi on USA (done)
-tests of new technology and AI in war (done)
-reinforce Petro dollar strength
@_The_Prophet__
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FSD 때문에 테슬라 Y 신차로 바꿀까 하다가 아무리 생각해도 돈낭비인거 같아서 그냥 제 테슬라3에 FSD만 결제해서 타고 있습니다.
결론은 제 삶의 질이 완전히 달라졌습니다!
HW3임에도 FSD 훌륭하구요. (물론 커브 같은게 좀 버벅이긴 함)
출퇴근이 20~40분 정도 걸리는데 이 시간이 저에게는 휴식시간이 되었습니다. 너무 좋네요.
FSD 꼭 하세요!!! 최고!
Damnang2@damnang2
많은분들이 HW4 FSD가 신세계라고 하셔서... 진지하게 지금 테슬라3를 팔고 새로운 테슬라 Y로 갈아탈지 고민중입니다. 와이프를 어떻게 설득하...
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yasso333 retweetledi
@JustDeauIt I figured as much few weeks ago
Trump is playing 2025 again
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It's starting to feel like there just isn't that much urgency to open the Strait of Hormuz.
If you reason about this from the incentives of the Trump admin and observe the rhetoric, it starts to make more sense.
So, what might Trump have to gain right now by letting the Strait stay closed?
*The U.S. is the largest LNG exporter in the world. Europe buys 56% of its LNG from the U.S.*
Allowing the pain from a closed Strait to build creates leverage for Trump in two ways:
1. It's a forcing mechanism to pull Europe into the War and "pay for its own security" (Trump's words) + potentially redefine NATO (something Trump has been talking about since before his time in office)
2. It's good for U.S. energy companies and "middle America."
Of course, if Oil goes to $150 +, that's bad for consumers and markets.
But U.S. energy companies will likely ramp up production + sell oil to countries that need it.
This creates an "energy boom" in the U.S. that grows GDP.
Furthermore, a drawn-out war likely results in a massive fiscal bill for defense spending.
That will create more GDP.
This is the "run it hot" economy that everyone was talking about last year (when it was a meme rather than an actual thing).
Finally, if you can get the Fed to look through the initial inflation spike and cut rates, you can potentially thread the financial markets through without a massive correction (less confidence here, given that demand destruction to consumption will be big and liquidity conditions are tightening).
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As Charlie Munger (RIP) liked to say, "Show me the incentive, and I'll show you the outcome."
Feels like less urgency to open the Strait aligns with Trump's incentives to boost the U.S. manufacturing/energy sector/middle America and his goals with NATO.
@JackFarley96 recent interview with @AnnaEconomist helped me game this out.
Not saying I agree with any of this. Just an investor trying to see the playing field with clear eyes.
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AI becoming the new SaaS
@naval
Google@Google
We just released Gemma 4 — our most intelligent open models to date. Built from the same world-class research as Gemini 3, Gemma 4 brings breakthrough intelligence directly to your own hardware for advanced reasoning and agentic workflows. Released under a commercially permissive Apache 2.0 license so anyone can build powerful AI tools. 🧵↓
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@investingluc He is not only sacrificing the midterm, he is also risking impeachment.
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The tacos aren’t really taco’ing that hard anymore. Guessing there’s some panic in DC right now re taco impact (or lack thereof).
But the fact that trump keeps pushing iran's buttons + isn't worried about hormuz...makes me think there's a variable I'm missing. Like he has something different up his sleeve.
I believe it's about energy. It's always been about energy.
Venezuela...largest oil reserves in the world. Greenland...massively resource rich. Hormuz...20%+ of global oil flows. Cuba soon. Panama Canal.
This matters because he who controls energy, controls the future global economy. So they're doing whatever it takes to secure global dominance right now (for better or for worse)...and it sounds crazy but "whatever it takes" might mean jeopardizing midterms + more weakness in markets. Food for thought.
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