Zach Light 🛡️

The bullish case for Coinbase thread. Disclaimer: I own 4000 $COIN stocks at an average price of ~59.5. Coinbase is in deep value territory if you believe in the future of crypto. Here are some reasons why 1/

Very hard to be bullish currently. -Big tech earnings show a massive increase in capex. -Valuations are already extremely high so a lot of downside if cloud growth slows. -War with Iran is a real possibility in the next few days/weeks, given US military assets in the region.

Investment post: After ~15 of heavily investing in tech stocks and cryptocurrencies (almost all net worth), recent global events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel conflicts , made me change my strategy. I've opened positions in Lockheed Martin $LMT and Raytheon $RTX today. Here’s the thesis: - The world is significantly more precarious lately, with nations like Iran advancing their missile technology. - Defense systems like Raytheon's SM3 missiles and Lockheed's aircrafts have become crucial for intercepting missile strikes. - The effectiveness of the Arrow system and SM3 in neutralizing ballistic missiles, as well as the F-35/F-16/F-15 in countering drones and cruise missiles, has been visibly demonstrated by US/Israel this week. - This capability is now a critical requirement not just for European countries but also for other nations such as Saudi Arabia. - Many European countries have not invested heavily in defense, but this is changing rapidly (Germany increases budget 2x almost!). - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Middle East, has nearly depleted existing military stockpiles. - The need to guard against potential threats from Russia and Iran will cause a surge in demand for air-to-air missiles, guidance systems, radars, and other defense technologies that companies like Raytheon and Lockheed specialize. - At these valuations if thesis is wrong the stocks still look pretty solid. - This is ofc not high-return investment but more of defensive move in uncertain times. I'm still very bullish on technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, reflecting my overall bullish outlook on these sectors.

Dynamics described below happened very fast. $LINK 8% , $O 16 % ! $VICI 7.3% UP YTD already which is huge for REITs. Most software dump (e.g. $PLTR -22% YTD). Local crypto bottom after Iran war starts very possible soon (even this weekend)

Haven’t posted in a while, but here’s my take and in short my thesis and how I’m positioning myself for the next few years (stocks + blockchain): 1. High-growth rotating into undervalued yield is inevitable. Why? The market is currently pricing ~30–40% annual growth for some KEY stocks, and that’s just not realistic. AI is by far the most important technology of our time, no debate, but a lot of companies will fail to integrate it well so fast. Some are moving too fast, e.g., cutting headcount and “using AI” with low real utilization. When the market fully recognizes this, a repricing has to happen and even $QQQ can have a long dump. We’re likely near the end of a big bullish cycle (2009–2026), similar to 1982–1999 and 1950–1968. Undervalued yield should see inflows in this environment especially if interest rates come down (think “gambling” $VICI, Realty Income $O. If you’re more risk-loving, some Hong Kong REITs like $LINK are way below book. Singapore REITs too, but most are fairly expensive.) 2. Blockchain tech will do well surprisingly. Blockchain isn’t a “growth stock” story with P/E ratios, even though Wall Street often treats it that way. Traditional currencies are in real trouble because of endless debt and printing that will be even higher. “Digital gold” (Bitcoin) $BTC and networks like Ethereum with a currency $ETH that behaves more like money / a settlement layer can perform surprisingly well in this environment. 3. Coinbase is in a perfect position for this run and can do very well. They built an incredible company that can deliver fast and great products. I’d much rather be in $COIN in these years than Palantir $PLTR which is an amazing company, but the valuation is insane.

Look at this chart closely Every recovery in $ETH is V-shaped - symmetric recovery - faster the decline - the faster of the recovery

Haven’t posted in a while, but here’s my take and in short my thesis and how I’m positioning myself for the next few years (stocks + blockchain): 1. High-growth rotating into undervalued yield is inevitable. Why? The market is currently pricing ~30–40% annual growth for some KEY stocks, and that’s just not realistic. AI is by far the most important technology of our time, no debate, but a lot of companies will fail to integrate it well so fast. Some are moving too fast, e.g., cutting headcount and “using AI” with low real utilization. When the market fully recognizes this, a repricing has to happen and even $QQQ can have a long dump. We’re likely near the end of a big bullish cycle (2009–2026), similar to 1982–1999 and 1950–1968. Undervalued yield should see inflows in this environment especially if interest rates come down (think “gambling” $VICI, Realty Income $O. If you’re more risk-loving, some Hong Kong REITs like $LINK are way below book. Singapore REITs too, but most are fairly expensive.) 2. Blockchain tech will do well surprisingly. Blockchain isn’t a “growth stock” story with P/E ratios, even though Wall Street often treats it that way. Traditional currencies are in real trouble because of endless debt and printing that will be even higher. “Digital gold” (Bitcoin) $BTC and networks like Ethereum with a currency $ETH that behaves more like money / a settlement layer can perform surprisingly well in this environment. 3. Coinbase is in a perfect position for this run and can do very well. They built an incredible company that can deliver fast and great products. I’d much rather be in $COIN in these years than Palantir $PLTR which is an amazing company, but the valuation is insane.

3. There was a narrative in Wall Street that we will bottom in Q1 2023. Everyone front run and $QQQ fell in December to the October lows. 4. Companies like $MSFT and $GOOG invested a LOT in AI without seeing revenue yet. It is going to change soon.2/

Bought 1000 $COIN at ~52.5$. Market cap ~12B with 6B shareholders' equity. Plan to hold this one a long time