Zan

@rickjeff78 Yes they are. Look at 2 things for obvious evidence; No loading at kharg island for a week. The boats Iran is suddenly letting out are not their own. They will get no toll booth and be happy they tried

Iran is no closer to ending than when the first ceasefire started.

@mitchellvii I think this is correct, but a perfect example of Trump failing forward. He absolutely did not expect it to last this long, but is exploiting it perfectly in line with Pax Silica and military strategy (Monroe doctrine and Trumps corollary)

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 TRUMP'S HORMUZ CHECKMATE - It's not an accident that President Trump blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and THEN went to China. He understands after cutting off Venezuelan oil and now blockading the Strait of Hormuz, he is pushing hard on China's pressure points. This is a perfect example of global acupuncture. Trump knows that Iran will eventually cave. He just needs to put external pressure on them and that's exactly what China can do. China is realizing that it is better to be our friend than our foe. Iran was nothing more than a stick with which China to poke us. That stick has now lost its value.

@osintPk It means Russia may be a party to Iran's Uranium removal. They will unlikely be trusted as sole guarantor

Russian Ministry of Emergency situation is heading toward the Middle East? For those who know what that means!!!!

@vtchakarova Interesting take, but this is really understating how China is taking on severe economic pain with each day. The real damage is already done to USA, not yet China. Thats like saying China could shoot themselves in both legs in order to give Trump a headache. Math shows opposite

Correct. But not short-term. China can wait it out for the sake of weakening the US geopolitically.

@biral_r China can never allow a Toll Booth and the pressure is obviously behind the scenes not in media. Signals are showing increase in passage, that didn't materialize from nothing. If you dont believe thats Chinese pressure you dont understand CCP politics

Whitehouse spin’s China’s position on Iran (nuclear and SoH) is a diplomatic win for Trump - but the facts tell a different story. Strait of Hormuz - China’s ACTUAL position is to blame US/Israel strikes (since Feb 28) as root cause. China vetoed Bahrain-led UNSC draft in April (w/ Russia). Now actively opposing new US-backed May draft as “unbalanced & one-sided.” On nuclear, China has said “Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon” for many years. consistent with non-proliferation. See tweet below. Reality check: Beijing has NOT shifted. Still demands ceasefire + dialogue, not force. Vetoes prove it. Facts over spin.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Please retweet and follow for more info / analysis @biral_r @grok verify

@ThePowerAudit China fundamentally can't condone the toll booth without a severe boomerang. These are positive signals of de-escalation of strait passage Nuclear next

Morning update, May 14. Trump and Xi met for over two hours at the Great Hall of the People. The White House readout produced three agreements on Iran. First, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Second, the Strait of Hormuz must remain a free and open waterway with no Iranian control or ability to charge tolls. Third, China expressed interest in purchasing more American oil. Taiwan declaratory language was unchanged. Xi warned that mishandling the issue could lead to conflict. Trump did not concede. Meanwhile, the squeeze on Iran is reaching a physical limit. Bloomberg satellite imagery confirms/claims no tankers have loaded at Kharg Island since May 8. They monitored four consecutive observation windows with empty jetties. This is the first prolonged halt since the war began. @TankerTrackers reports Iran has not exported a single barrel of crude by sea in the past month. Treasury Secretary Bessent, on CNBC today, warning that Iran's 'creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production' and that Kharg Island storage is nearing full capacity. He estimated the cost to Tehran at $170 million per day in lost revenue. The IRGC responded to the summit by seizing a vessel 38 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah and directing it toward Iranian waters. Separately, the India-flagged Haji Ali was attacked by drones off the coast of Oman and reportedly sunk. India called it "unacceptable." Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi personally called Iran's President Pezeshkian to arrange a second tanker transit through Hormuz. The ship carried 1.9 million barrels of Kuwaiti and Emirati crude. No toll was reported as paid. 39 Japan-related vessels remain stuck in the Gulf. Day 2 continues today. CEOs and business leaders will be busy with their counterparts working out the details of economic deal structures.

@ThePowerAudit Spot on, except the toll booth is a precedent that China could never allow. This could be used in vital straits against China and would backfire. China knows this. That is probably more important than replacing Iranian oil

A package deal of NVIDIA chips for an oil easement on Iran and rare earth access could be on the table. The deal on paper: US gives: NVIDIA chip access (restricted tiers, not full cutting-edge, but enough to matter) Hormuz pressure release (blockade eased, DFC architecture stays but traffic resumes once IRGC is replaced or fully surrenders) China gives: Rare earth cooperation (processing access, export license normalization) Iran abandoned (stops buying sanctioned oil, abstains or doesn't veto UNSC resolution, pressures Tehran to accept terms) Neither side says out loud: Taiwan status quo locked in for the duration The energy chokepoint leverage stays in place as implicit deterrent The DFC tollbooth is permanent architecture regardless of deal The concern with selling NVIDIA is that it accelerates Chinese military AI and threatens Taiwan. That is real. But consider what the US gets if China surrenders Iran. The US just demonstrated it can shut down a strait and choke a nation's oil exports to zero. China is bearing the brunt of that. China imports 70% of its oil, most of it passing through two chokepoints the US Navy controls: Hormuz and Malacca. If China walks away from Iran and accepts a US-led Hormuz architecture, the US locks in permanent energy leverage over China's economy. That leverage IS the Taiwan deterrent. China cannot invade Taiwan if the US can cut off its oil in response. No amount of AI chips changes that math. NVIDIA gives China a tactical tool. Gulf energy hegemony gives the US a strategic chokepoint over their entire economy. Strategic beats tactical. Selling the chips becomes acceptable when you have locked in the bigger lever. The shelf life on this leverage is 10 to 15 years before Chinese energy diversification erodes it. That means the window to make this deal is now, while the chokepoint pressure is at maximum and the US can use the time to build alternative rare earth supply chains. You cannot get something from nothing in a negotiation. The question is whether what you get is worth what you give. In this case, the math says yes.

@aleranvi @ana_m_delatorre When you can't defend your position, its easier to block those who poke holes in it? Good luck mam, wish you the best.

@Zaniel412 @ana_m_delatorre 😂😂😂

EL TABLERO DE AJEDREZ COMPLETO: POSIBLES MOVIMIENTOS GLOBALES DE LOS PRÓXIMOS MESES 1. EL IMPERIO, ACORRALADO Donald Trump está atrapado. Esa es la premisa básica para entender el tablero actual. La mayor maquinaria militar de la historia, con tres portaviones en el Golfo Pérsico, 80.000 efectivos desplegados y un submarino nuclear en Gibraltar, no puede ganar la guerra contra Irán. Pero tampoco puede retirarse sin que la derrota estratégica sea visible para todo el planeta. Esa contradicción —no poder vencer ni poder salir— define el momento. Mientras tanto, el reloj financiero corre en su contra. La deuda externa de Estados Unidos ronda los 39 billones de dólares. Los intereses anuales de esa deuda ya superan el presupuesto completo del Pentágono. Mantener un despliegue de esa magnitud sin atacar es una hemorragia económica que un imperio financieramente quebrado no puede sostener de forma indefinida. A esto se suma un factor político interno: Trump no controla del todo su propia guerra. Benjamin Netanyahu presiona sin descanso para que el conflicto escale, para que el ataque sea total, para que Estados Unidos haga el trabajo sucio que Israel lleva años queriendo hacer. El aliado ha secuestrado al Imperio. Trump querría salir, negociar un acuerdo, apuntarse una victoria pírrica. Pero Netanyahu no se lo va a permitir. Cada vez que Washington amaga con la diplomacia, Tel Aviv fuerza un nuevo incidente, una nueva provocación, una nueva razón para seguir disparando. El resultado es un presidente estadounidense que dedica su tiempo a mostrar una falsa fortaleza: amenazas nucleares que no ejecuta, submarinos que mueve de un lado a otro, declaraciones altisonantes que Irán desmonta una y otra vez con acciones quirúrgicas. La iniciativa real ya no está en Washington. Está en Teherán. 2. ORMUZ: EL CENTRO DE GRAVEDAD 3. UCRANIA: DE ALIADO A MERCENARIO 4. LA UNIÓN EUROPEA: EL SUICIDIO COMO DOCTRINA 5. EL FACTOR NORCOREANO 6. BRICS, ¿HERIDO DE MUERTE? LA ALTERNATIVA REAL 7. LOS DOS ESCENARIOS 8. CONCLUSIÓN Lee el ensayo completo aquí. ⬇️⬇️⬇️ ▫️ Suscripción: 3€/mes. ▫️ Suscripción compartida: 3€/mes entre 2-5 personas *Con esta suscripción colaboras en mantener este trabajo informativo independiente. *Si deseas suscribirte y tus condiciones materiales no te lo permiten, te regalo una suscripción. anamunozdelatorre.substack.com/p/el-tablero-d…

Do you have a specific question or are you just going to insinuate I'm ignorant? Here's a hint, the last time we had a department of war was WW2. The entire Monroe doctrine revival, Capital investment fleeing china, and trumps moves on the western hemisphere are the real game to pressure and pivot from China. Go ahead attack anything I said. Trumps initial failed strategy in iran is now failing forward towards these goals. China could never allow the precedent of a toll booth. Thats obvious. USA needs rare earths. Quid pro quo forces agreements. Iran relents. Russia takes uranium. Wait and see.

¿Pero cómo vas a hacer tu propia investigación sobre algo que no has leído? Y encima cada palabra que utilizas es pura propaganda occidental, que parece que te hayas escapado de un gulag en el que te han leído el parte diario de la Agencia de EEUU para los Medios Globales cada día durante 20 años. Es que es de risa, vamos. Dime que no eres real, por favor 🤭

Well I do my own research, I dont see how your thesis or atleast narrative factors the real game at play with the post covid China shift by the world to diversify, Pax Silicon strategy and usa/china short term dependacies. Your just not zoomed out to the macro scale, its easily verified

@Zaniel412 ¿Pero lo has leído completo, criatura? Ya te contesto yo: no. Porque es de pago y los bots no pueden pagar 🤷‍♀️

@Ja_Aleg0 Do your own research. Trump is failing forward. This disaster of the strait situation is political for USA, yet is economic for China and deadly serious. It cannot allow toll booths in principle, and cannot sustain draining its cheaply purchased energy reserves.

BS

@WeTheBrandon Ypur missing alot of economic shifts from post covid and broader geopolitical trends of pax silicon and 2025 military strategy. Also, obviously China cannot allow Iranian toll booth precedent, obviously.. it would be immediately used against China. Your not seeing the forest here

Why is it that, if Trump attacked Iran to attack China, he is now going to Beijing to beg Xi to do a massive trade deal to save the American economy (that Trump broke with this war), plead with Xi to help in forcing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and is still allowing China to acquire Iranian oil and natural gas? 🤔 There is no 5D Chess. We've all been had.

@McFaul Your thesis is no longer taking into account the bigger economic codependencies and regional geopolitical trends. While Trump is politically weaker, so is China, and the leverage over Iran's oil, is an actual win-win bargaining Chip. China cannot support Toll booth precedent.

This is the phrase that I wondered in my latest essay if Trump would use too. Stand by. open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcf…

@McFaul With Japan taking the lead on the Taiwan issue, and your ignorance of the codependency between USA and China on trade, and how covid shifted external invest from china, and towards pax silicon in the west your premise is missing alot of crucial details and your thesis is wrong

"Xi feels little pressure to offer the United States concessions right now. The worst outcome would be Trump being too eager to announce “a big economic deal,” and thus signaling publicly less support for Taiwan than previous presidents. Trump lifting more export controls in the pursuit of some ambiguously defined and hard-to-implement “big economic deal” would also be imprudent. At this moment in history, a boring summit will be a good outcome." michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/detente-20-h…

China needs oil/reduced tariffs. This war is about China, not Iran. Quid pro quo ending? China leverages Iran concessions for Rare earth concessions to Trump. Uranium to Russia. All prop up US oil industry needed for AI/energy race and rare earths for USA and China dependency for a while yet. This war is a theater

China is Iran's biggest trade partner and the top buyer of its oil. Trump needs China to help end this war. China knows it. Xi knows it. That is why Trump flew to Beijing. He needs a favor and Xi is not giving it away for free. This summit is not about trade. It is about Iran.

@KrmlnPhoneBooth @simpatico771 @ZelenskyyUa Thats a good point actually. With how things are going, id want to, even for just an hour, remember the glory days 100 years ago when the Soviet Union was relevant. I totally understand the nostalgia. Ill ask Zelensky Zelensky not to rain on your parade. Cheer up citizen

@Zaniel412 @simpatico771 @ZelenskyyUa This shitstain just woke up in his cum-crusted basement and discovered our yearly parade has been a thing for over 30y. It’s not our fault ur last year’s pathetic, dick-swinging imitation of a Victory parade turned into the biggest international joke since ur mom’s OnlyFans debut

The Russians want Ukraine’s permission to hold their parade – so they can safely take to the square for an hour once a year, and then go back to killing *our* people and waging war. The Russians are already talking about strikes after May 9. A strange and certainly twisted logic from the Russian leadership. There are also messages from some states close to Russia that their representatives intend to be in Moscow. An odd desire at a time like this. We do not recommend it.

@joshrogin Lol. It was an ultimatum from Saudi Arabia. They literally conditioned retaliation to use their bases. Do some research, with all this Propaganda you gotta use your head, real critical thinking.

Orwellian stuff.

@joshrogin No, the GCC was upset we didn't retaliate when UAE got hit. They literally shut down base access until Trump agreed to retaliate. Do some research guy. This is a propaganda war, use you head.

In other words Trump bluffed and the Iranians called his bluff.

@cenkuygur You realize thay was an ultimatum from Saudi Arabia right? They were pissed we didn't retaliate when UAE got attacked.

Does Donald Trump think Iran won't retaliate after we bomb them if he says it doesn't count? Can anyone really be that childish? And calling it a "love tap" as you drop bombs on their heads doesn't make it better, it makes it worse.