ZeroDayDev
227 posts

ZeroDayDev
@ZeroDayDevApp
Mobile app for hands-on Exploit, Rust, Solidity, DeFi & security challenges. Stored locally. No data. No AI. iOS and Android devices. Threema: NP4FDTDH








$ETH went from a consensus hold to a contrarian bet in 2-3 years. Some of this was market driven, some was self-inflicted: 1) The EF pushed the L2 scaling roadmap after failing to scale the L1. It doesn't matter whether that came from lack of motivation, skills, or available tech and research at the time. Now the EF is scaling the L1, but even with gas limit increases, Ethereum will never be faster or cheaper than most competitors. And that's okay, because maximizing decentralization and censorship resistance requires tradeoffs. The problem is that market participants are giving it lower valuation multiple than in the past. And it's dead annoying though that full ERC-20 deposits to CEXs still take ~13 minutes (no 1-slot confirmation) and that approve + action still requires two txs across DeFi, despite years of 'account abstraction' upgrades. Watching EF members leave one by one isn't helping the sentiment either. 2) Ethereum can be slower and pricier than other chains, but the market now wants revenue to back valuations. $HYPE is generating 2x-3x the fees of Ethereum despite trading at ~5% of its market cap. Even more humiliating is $TRX, up 5x while ETH is down 40% over 5 years. Ethereans mocked TRX as a copy/paste vaporware scam, but Tron dominates retail stablecoin payments... The sector EF pushed for years and failed to capture, because Ethereum was simply too expensive and slow for adoption. Ouch. I believe Ethereum had it good with the ultrasound money narrative. Quickly deflating supply is the sexiest narrative that even BTC bulls would love. But it needs a massive pick up in txs numbers to generate the fees that burn ETH. And Glamsterdam just cut fees by ~78% (gas limit will go from 60M to 200M per block), which means transactions need to pump by 4.6x just to keep the burn flat. If onchain activity doesn't pick up to compensate, Ethereum's revenue drops further. Sure, Ethereum still dominates TVL but the ratio dropped from 96% in Jan 2021 to 52% today. And even with that, TVL monetization mostly flows to protocols and stablecoin issuers, not the L1. L2s aren't taxes either. ---- So what's the bullish case for Ethereum here? EF has partly got the message. The cypherpunk manifesto is personally very appealing to me, with its mission to promote privacy, self-sovereignty, and independence in an increasingly unstable world. I hope that recent departures from the EF is simply a realignment period. Pivoting to L1 scaling is the also right move, but UX needs to drastically improve, especially as more corpo-slop chains and institutions enter the market. EF is taking the quantum threat seriously, unlike the mixed reaction from Bitcoin core devs. But that all takes time, and if the market's demand for revenue doesn't subside, Ethereum simply needs to bring more users and transactions to the chain. The real ultrasound money narrative, while being the most decentralized chain, would do the trick. But we're far from ETH being deflationary again.



I think Ethereum’s original sin was not considering tokenomics with every move it made from Dencun on. The ultrasound money thesis was a good one and with Dencun (or the L2 roadmap generally) they should have stopped to say that this was going to hurt the ultrasound money thesis and consider how to preserve it. Most people, like David, don’t want to believe in something that isn’t also putting up points on the scoreboard. When the main offering becomes ideology/communism and money/tokenomics/capitalism are overlooked, the peasants are going to revolt — as they’ve been doing for two years now. Look at the public reaction to Tomasz: broad praise, a sense of hope, excitement, the price pumping … only for him to be gone a year later with the new ED being someone who cannot even be found online except for a Wayback Machine url with his name that has some really questionable statements on it (and I should say the EF denied that this website, which was taken down a few weeks after he was appointed to the board, is his). They’re going to be really mad at me for even mentioning that but in the place of a void, these are the kinds of things people will glom onto. Then there was the manifesto — I mean, mandate, which they backtracked on forcing people to sign. (Btw, this is the second bit of news that seems to relate to Bastian. And now the third would be all these departures. There’s nothing else for us to point at and say about him — when I searched for his name on Google News just now only 14 links came up. He seems to be some kind of invisible hand behind the scenes.) I don’t think ideology and capitalism/tokenomics/number go up are mutually exclusive. I think you can have CROPS values and also consider how each step of the roadmap affects the tokenomics and even have teams for BD/ecosystem growth. It feels like the EF doesn’t realize the moment that crypto is in. The competition is only just starting. We are in the phase of real world adoption. The Ethereum Foundation’s CROPS principles are great ones, and they are worth fighting for. But the EF seems to want to sit back on its laurels and act above it all when all its competitors are all getting down and dirty on the field to gain market share. Maybe it is the right approach. I don’t know. I’m just saying that more competitive people won’t align with it. And so they will leave … and community members will as well. I personally don’t think it’s good for Ethereum if its most competitive people depart. Ethereum’s unwillingness to stop the brain drain will only benefit its competitors — or spawn new ones. Giving a shit about price and tokenomics and BD doesn’t hurt CROPS. It just helps ensure that these principles get spread to more people and that other chains that don’t have these principles don’t get a leg up. All the commentary may be pointless. It seems Vitalik tried what everyone wanted and it didn’t align with his vision, so he brought in a new person he felt more comfortable with. It makes me sad to see people become so disaffected with Ethereum, but maybe this is V’s Brian Armstrong/no politics at Coinbase moment where he lays down what the EF will work on and asks everyone else to leave. That was the right move for Coinbase, but I view them as fundamentally different issues. We’ll see whether Ethereum maintains its lead with a foundation that isn’t willing to fight for it.



JUST IN: Newly unsealed court filings allege Jane Street used a private Telegram channel called "Bryce's Secret" to obtain insider information from Terraform Labs before dumping $192M of $UST near par, then made $134M shorting the token as Terra's $40B ecosystem collapsed.








