🇦🇷❤️🩹 💆🏻 Nelson retweetledi
US intelligence sees no military solution against Iran
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▪️ A new US intelligence assessment, cited by The Washington Post, concludes that continued US military strikes are unlikely to force Iran to soften its negotiating position or significantly alter its policies.
▪️ US intelligence agencies reportedly believe Washington and Tehran are now trapped in an indefinite state of "neither peace nor war," with recurring cycles of escalation and temporary calm.
▪️ According to current and former US officials familiar with the assessment, the findings have already been briefed to the Trump administration, highlighting the growing dilemma facing Washington as the war drags on.
▪️ The report, written primarily by the CIA, reportedly assesses that Iran's government retains significant resilience despite the loss of senior commanders and military assets in US and Israeli attacks.
▪️ A previous CIA assessment in May reportedly concluded that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing severe economic hardship.
▪️ Former US intelligence official Jonathan Panikoff told The Washington Post that the Trump administration appears to believe increasing military pressure will eventually make Tehran more flexible, but said that assessment is "almost certainly incorrect."
▪️ Panikoff argued that Iran's leadership has repeatedly demonstrated that regime survival remains its top priority, and that Tehran is willing to absorb substantial military and economic costs.
▪️ The report also notes that both Washington and Tehran have continued to signal openness to diplomacy through intermediaries, despite ongoing hostilities and retaliatory attacks.
▪️ US officials cited by The Washington Post also said they increasingly see internal tensions within the Iranian leadership between officials viewed by Washington as pragmatists and hardliners, particularly within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
▪️ Overall, US intelligence reportedly sees no clear path to a decisive military outcome, warning that the conflict is likely to continue through repeated flare-ups, negotiations, and renewed strikes.
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