No wonder Economic Optimism has again dropped, with 75% now expecting the economic condition of the country to get worse. EOI data here ipsos.com/en-uk/public-c…
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Alex Bogdan
2.1K posts
Alex Bogdan
@_AlexBogdan
Surveys, research, methodology, Hackney, nature Works at @IpsosUK. Views = α + β1*genetics + β2*upbringing + β3*education + β4*media +... +βn*mood. Also my own.
London, England Katılım Nisan 2012
705 Takip Edilen573 Takipçiler
Concern about the impact of the Iran conflict on the UK economy is high, same levels @Ipsos_in_the_UK were seeing in the first year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Data here ipsos.com/en-uk/over-8-1…
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Clear signals on support for energy bills cannot come early enough. We're already seeing an impact on economic anxiety in our @Ipsos_in_the_UK data.
84% concerned about the impact on the price of fuel/energy
Pippa Crerar@PippaCrerar
NEW: Keir Starmer says he's already looking at prospect of energy bill support next winter - suggesting he doesn't expect energy price shock to be resolved soon. PM again suggests he would prefer a plan which focuses support on poorest households rather than a costly universal bailout. "I'm acutely aware of how much it cost last time round, and I'm acutely aware of the state of the public finances, but we will look this afternoon at what the appropriate approach is. "There are difficulties in that we don't yet know the extent of the challenge we're facing, because we don't know when this conflict is going to an end," he tells MPs. "We're looking at in the first instance what happens when the current price cap ends, which is the end of June. I think the one we're equally focused on is the one after that, because... after that it gets very heavy."
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
Britons' economic confidence, which had (slightly) improved earlier this year, has worsened again in the wake of the Iran conflict to near historic lows, according to new @Ipsos_in_the_UK data. 75% think the economy will get worse over the year, +11ppts from February.
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
Latest @Ipsos_in_the_UK Issues Index is out.
Immigration remains in 1st place (just) but sharp increase in % of public seeing defence / foreign affairs as important issue. Not surprising of course.
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The US and UK's diverging views on Iran is yet another strain on the 'special relationship'. But it's not purely No 10 vs White House. The British public are more likely to disapprove of strikes than Americans, though support is still weak in the UK as well.
Ipsos in the UK@Ipsos_in_the_UK
Belief in the "special relationship" has dropped back to levels last seen last year in the aftermath of Trump’s tariffs. 🤝 3 in 10 (29%) agree there is currently a special relationship between the US and Britain (41% disagree) 🇬🇧 45% think Keir Starmer is doing a bad job handling the UK’s relationship with President Trump and the United States
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Some personal/professional news: today is my last day at the IFS. There’s nowhere else I’d rather have spent the last nine years and leaving is such a wrench. But it’s time for something new, and I’m excited to be joining The Observer as Economics Editor from 7 April.
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
Just over half of Brits disapprove of US military strikes against Iran, and there’s high levels of concern – over 8 in 10 – about the impact of the conflict on the UK economy.
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Interestingly, Angela Rayner has the worst net agree score for having what it takes to be a good PM with @Ipsos_in_the_UK among the politicians we asked about. Lots of people are undecided, but over half disagree, only 1 in 10 think she has was it takes.
Pippa Crerar@PippaCrerar
💥Punchy remarks from @AngelaRayner at Mainstream event tonight, esp given she is viewed as front runner in any Labour leadership contest: - she warns Keir Starmer he “cannot just go through motions” in face of decline - and that govt is “running out of time” to show it can deliver change people need. - a nod to disgruntled MPs when she says they need to “rebuild this party” as well as the country. - says it’s “un-British” to move the goalposts on indefinite leave to remain - puts her at odds with govt’s key immigration policy. - attacks Reform who she says are “twisting our flags” into symbols of division - and says they’re on side of the people who rigged the system.
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
A few points from the detail of the latest @Ipsos_in_the_UK Political Monitor. Party image questions show where the strengths of Reform and (to a lesser extent) Greens lie: being see as clear and united, looking after ordinary people’s interests and representing change. But....
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Not to understate how unpopular this government and Starmer are, but this is the first time since September Starmer has had a (small) lead on Most Capable Prime Minister over Farage.
Ipsos in the UK@Ipsos_in_the_UK
Starmer leads Farage and Badenoch on who Brits think would be the most capable Prime Minister. He’s up +4 since Jan 2026, whilst Farage is down -2, and Badenoch’s down -1.
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
Important observation from today's @Ipsos_in_the_UK voting intention figures. Reform vote share has clearly fallen over past 6 months
Here is the Sept vs today
Reform 34% ~ 28%
Labour 22% ~ 21%
Conservative 14% ~ 17%
Greens 12% ~ 17%
Lib Dems 12% ~ 9%
So a 6 point fall for Reform in this past 6 months.
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
New from @Ipsos_in_the_UK Do various politicians 'have what it takes to be a good PM?' Key points:
- Andy Burnham neck and neck with Farage on % agree. (Net score much better due to fewer negatives).
- Starmer not miles behind on % agree. But 6 in 10 disagree.
- Yet Starmer leads Polanski and several potential Labour rivals in terms of % agree.
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
Improvement in Starmer’s satisfaction ranging, from a historically low ebb: -62 to -53.
Polanksi also sees an improvement, with net satisfaction increasing from -11 to -7 this month.
👉 ipsos.com/en-uk/reform-u…
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That Reform and Greens are able to speak to this group speaks volumes. And the cost of living is never far from people's minds: half of Brits are worried about their financial situation and the economy continues to be a top issue for many. Data tinyurl.com/yf3n7rua
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It's Reform vs Greens among the most financially vulnerable groups in our new @Ipsos_in_the_UK Voting Intention, with Labour 4th among this group! Indeed, Labour only lead among the Comfortably off.
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Alex Bogdan retweetledi
NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos
📊Reform UK +7-point lead over Labour – down from +8 in Jan 2026 and +15 in Nov 2025
📊The Greens’ vote share of 17% is up from 12% in Jan 2026
📊Both Labour and Conservatives down from Jan 2026 – Labour -1, Conservatives -2
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With a little bit of help from Claude Code I've made a UK Constituency app that lets you look at descriptive data about British constituencies through a variety of maps and graphs. A short thread... 1/n
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Businesses were also crying out for support with the cost of energy before the current crisis - @Ipsos_in_the_UK
Jessica Elgot@jessicaelgot
Ministers are discussing the possibility of intervening to protect the public against soaring household energy bills if the Middle East conflict drags on. The energy secretary, Ed Miliband, is understood to believe that prices cannot be allowed to rise substantially.
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