Crypto Loser

Bear Market Plan – When to Buy #MSTR So rn, strategy owns 713,502 BTC. I asked Grok how much, on average, Saylor bought per week since 2023. It said around 3,600–3,700 BTC. Let’s assume that in a bear market it will be much harder for Saylor to raise money, and for the sake of this example, let’s say he buys on average 740 BTC per week for the next 49 weeks. That would add roughly 36k BTC, bringing the total to around 740k BTC by EOY. Okay, cool. Now let’s assume the bottom will be around 40k–50k. Let’s take 40k for the example so we have a margin of safety. 740k × $40k = $29.6B mcap. I’m saying market cap because I have no idea how much he’s going to dilute the stock price, which is why I won’t even include a TA chart. Yeah, that’s strange even for me but before I became a TA/cycle retardio, I was a full-on fundamental dummy. With this very simple calculation, you can be interested in starting accumulation below 30B, because you’re owning part of his BTC stack and the business for less than its liquidation price in fundamental terms, tangible book value. But there’s one very important thing to assume: their debt. So, to include debt in our little math equation— btw, I went to a mathematics high school :D—we also need to account for their cash (yes, they have cash too, don’t forget that) and subtract that portion from the debt. Since I’m lazy but i remember all my tools and fundamental sites, we’ll look at my fav metric: Tangible book value per share(screenshot below) This shows us: if we bought the whole company "today" and liquidated it, how much we’d get per share. Right now, it’s $141, which means fundamentally you’re buying $141 for $132—or better said, MSTR is cheap relative to its real intrinsic value. But and this is a big BUT—the tangible book value per share rose a lot because they bought a lot of Bitcoin and Bitcoin went up. Rn, it’s in contraction because BTC has started to drop. You should understand that buying MSTR before Bitcoin bottoms is a bad idea—you get very risky downside beta that drops 2x more than the core asset. With that being said, MSTR is cheap, but you should assume this is just an equation with many ifs. Bitcoin may go below $40k—or not even reach $50k. Saylor may continue buying aggressively or completely stop buying. So, for margin of safety, I would advise starting accumulation below $30B, which is around 30% below today’s prices. Always look at how much the Bitcoin they hold costs and aim to buy at 10% below fair value. Example: If I have a company that owns 10 BTC and BTC is $50k, then a good buy for my company shares is anything below $500k market cap, ideally $400k–$450k.This what means margin of safety. This post is getting very long, and I literally forgot some of the things I already wrote :D. Yeah, this happens when you consume Gin and talk about finance. But remember one thing: Bitcoin doesn’t need MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy needs Bitcoin. So whenever you decide to buy this debt ponzi, do it when tangible book value per share is higher than the stock price and mcap is lower than the combined value of the Bitcoin holdings into the moment u decide to start accumulation. When I decide to buy, I’ll do these equations again and tell you more precisely how i use the margin of safety and the way i set my buys/order. Until then, do this work yourself. Also… I may not buy it at all.