Fool On The Hill

@Capt_Alsh The 21.8k boepd in Q1 includes the Oman acquisition back dated, no? You can't then add on another 9-10k when it completes? #kist

#AET a massive positive point made here, that feels like market hasn't fully taken on board yet ie the two imminent drills aren't just cash-flowed by Sonangol, but they're also totally risk free to AET as no repayment by them if well(s) is/are dry! directorstalkinterviews.com/afentra-opport…

#AET Sonangol exercised pre-emption on Etu on the exact morning the strategic review was announced and now they're making the asset look as valuable as possible before a deal is signed.

Makes sense for a realistic valuation for M&P bidding for #AET

🧵 Afentra (#AET) is up for sale. The market thinks it's just an oil price play at $110 Brent. I think there's a named buyer already in the room. A thread. 👇

#aet #afentra This is major !!!!! Recent transactions suggest 30k$ per flowing barrel and 8-10$ per barrel of reserves Considering the upcoming growth in production what could be a fair sale price ? Production 15k bopd 2029 20k in 2030 2P reserves 36m barrels 2C 80m barrels

ft.com/content/92e081… Promising results and nice coverage of the bloodtest for Alzheimers which #bvxp are working on. Continued positive coverage might speed up the approval process if the test is a success.

The Champ at Wimbledon

Here’s the TRUTH: the climate disaster death rate has *declined* by 98% over the last century, even as carbon emissions have risen. The average person is 50X less likely to die of a climate-related cause than in 1920. Why? Fossil fuels. And 8x as many people die from cold temperatures as warm ones. The right answer to all temperature-related deaths is, again, more abundance of fossil fuels. These are inconvenient truths for the climate cult. The real emergency isn’t climate change, it’s the man-made disaster of climate change policies that threaten U.S. prosperity.

@feynzz I agree, this looks much better. A tremendous increase in reserves. Gets the TW deal a bit closer to a fairer price. I am hopeful this, with a few other catalysts (results, EPL floor, oil price +) can change the sentiment in the share price. #sqz

#SQZ Tailwind 2P reserves increased by 30%. Now that is material. How does the deal look now including the £450m cash benefit of the tax losses Serica acquired? Looking forward to FY results next Thursday.

@feynzz Not in hiding...SP on deal announcement 278p. SP today 233p. Every time #sqz have a day where the price rises over 3% (only about 5 times since 278p) you espouse how great the deal is and how right you are. I am giving it 6-12 months to hopefully see value creation from the deal

#SQZ All those bashing the Tailwind deal must be somewhere in hiding today. Just what has happened to gas prices vs oil since the deal announcement goes on to prove that #SQZ management knew better than most of us. As I said, Tailwind 40m 2P reserves are worth > #SQZ 60m 2P.

@OilinvestorAl @GaryNTrader Operationally brilliant, strategically inept. Which means you need to keep adding good value assets to fully utilise your operational excellence. The last 3-4 years just seems like a huge opportunity missed from where the company had positioned itself. #sqz

@Kartoff72652752 @shareGBP Atleast wait until the share price is north of 3 quid before telling people they should not invest in shares as they dont understand them. It is still 10% below the price when the deal was announced. If you sold out then and bought back in at the lows you would be much better off

@shareGBP All those that were crying their eyes out on the #sqz discussion boards in the past couple of weeks have gone very quiet now that the sp is (modestly) moving a little higher. Some people should not invest in shares as they don’t understand them…

#SQZ starting to grind higher. Oil outlook continues to strengthen. Board decision on Tailwind looking better and better by the day. Noise dying down, value investors mopping up cheap stock. It's not hard at times...

@pijoe1212 @Robin25461631 @MitchFleggCEO @BurggrabenH I remember that spaces..Also..Wont overpay for M&A,then overpays. Gas is the key transition fuel, then all of a sudden we need oil.Lack of hedging at high prices,lack of share buybks & also lack of director buys with shares so cheap Management need to prove credibility here. #sqz

@Robin25461631 @MitchFleggCEO @BurggrabenH BTW - the last time you directly answered my question was in an Alex twitter space last year. Thk you for doing that space, but You dismissed my views on windfall tax. I was proven correct a few days later. Pls do not dismiss PI's- you will be held to account.

So why @MitchFleggCEO did you spend our shareholder cash to buy more NS assets in an "unstable tax regime" as you stated? I think you have lost the plot. @BurggrabenH

@Kartoff72652752 @Hedgeman16 @feynzz I don't think 17.5% of total holders frequent BBs. Just bc people disagree with you doesn't mean they don't understand. They had all the facts and came to a different conclusion to you. Will take 6-12 months before we fully understand the merits of the deal..good or bad.

@Hedgeman16 @_FoolOnTheHill_ @feynzz I agree. Whilst bulletin boards are funny places, if the No voters are the type that frequent them, then all talk and no action. Some will go, many will stay. They just went all tribal for No but didn’t really understand the deal. Mistook opinions for facts. No surprise.

#SQZ Market Cap (post share issue) = c£936m est Net Cash = £200m Generating £18m in FCF/month at current prices (excluding the impact of any tax losses) Gross cash c£500m+ provides ammunition for further M&A. I like the risk/reward obv. DYOR

@BurggrabenH @OilinvestorAl @MitchFleggCEO @SericaEnergyplc Alex, I know a twitter spaces with Mitch was in the works for after the N Eigg drill. Is there any plan to have one, perhaps after completion beyond March, just to help get an informal perspective from Mitch once the deal is complete? #sqz

@OilinvestorAl @MitchFleggCEO @SericaEnergyplc I'm with you on that. There is a time to support and then there is a time to monitor. The latter started this afternoon. The share price must get back to 400p & if mgmt doesn't treat it as a product (like a field that needs love) it will not. Mgmt is now under scrutiny.

Good to see that 74% of sh went the extra mile to understand the merits of the proposed transaction. Now, @MitchFleggCEO & team will have to re-focus on getting this s-t tricky gas market right (Q2 weakness) & step-up buybacks as $SQZ is over-capitalised. @SericaEnergyplc

@feynzz Yeah, it is crazily undervalued at these levels. I hope you are right and we see a swift recovery in a few months.

@_FoolOnTheHill_ Not perplexed as such. I am just amazed at the opportunity. Won't comment further, give it a few months. Lets wait and see.

Seeing strong supporters of the #sqz deal now perplexed at the torching of the SP, -11% from the 278p. Dont worry its on low volume..its the gas price..its a labour govt..its no voters finally accepting a yes vote..anything but sentiment on the poor deal and paying off TWs debt

@Trisseswe Oh yes, I agree. It is undervalued regardless whether the deal goes through or not. But at this point I see it is more undervalued as a stand alone company than as part of Mercuria's Asset portfolio.

@_FoolOnTheHill_ At some point, for or against - there is value in the stock, no?