Stuart

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Stuart

Stuart

@ds_lyons

Katılım Şubat 2014
1K Takip Edilen502 Takipçiler
Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
✅ ~7% yield on LSE ✅ Only 30% payout ratio — huge headroom ✅ Dividend grown ~30%/yr for 3 years ✅ Paid twice a year ✅ 32% ROE means earnings can support further increases A rare combo of high yield + low payout + fast growth!
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
NPL ratio elevated at 7.7% but largely a regulatory artefact — moratorium on loan sales lifts May 2026, expect improvement
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
@otemple79 Cheets i couldnt find this a few days ago!
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
#AET Afentra's FSP rns today was fixed in scheme rules approved in 2022. It was always going to fall on that date. Management had zero discretion over it. What they did control was when to announce the strategic review. They chose 19 March — three days after vesting. Not before
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
#SQZ cash flow is insane. Today's prices vs management's own floor at 50k boepd for 6 months: 🛢Oil: $96 vs $63 = $33/bbl uplift ⛽️Gas: 131p vs 69p = 62p/therm uplift cash after Serica's ~20% tax rate: ~$280m more than the entire $200m net debt!!!!!
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
£1 of extra revenue: Peer keeps: ~£0.22 Serica keeps: ~£0.82 Lol what a CF machine
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
Serica due its tax shield are making mad bank on these higher prices them other north sea peers
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
#SQZ) FY2025 results today. 📉➡️📈 2025 production was 27,600 boepd —Triton FPSO issues crushed the number. Since Triton restarted on 9 March, production has averaged over 50,000 boepd. Guidance: 65,000+ boepd by end 2026.
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
@Mark_Newton1 That tax shield is incredible £1 of extra revenue: Peer keeps: ~£0.22 Serica keeps: ~£0.82 A 3.7x cash flow multiplier on the same commodity move.
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Mark Newton
Mark Newton@Mark_Newton1·
#SQZ Printing cash ...Brent currently $100bbl.
Mark Newton tweet mediaMark Newton tweet media
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
Paul McDade spent 18 years at Tullow Oil, finally became CEO, then resigned in Dec 2019 with no bonus, no LTIPs, no payout. He founded Afentra in 2021 at 15p. Built it to 78p. Now has £10m of personal exposure to the outcome. After five years i thinb it probs means deal
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
McDade, Cloke and Deulina hold a combined £18.6m in shares and vested options at today's 78p. Every 1p above today's price is worth £232,000 extra to the three of them combined. At £1.00 a share that becomes £23.7m — £5.1m more than today.
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
@Hedgeman16 They do have to do some deal otherwise mgmt have to explain why the wheels have come off etu
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Stuart
Stuart@ds_lyons·
@Hedgeman16 Yeah very much show they can hed the full year at 85 if they wanted too, actually think current prices might be an issue to doing a deal. No one wants to pay premium on hugh prices if those prices fall 3 months later
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Hedgeman
Hedgeman@Hedgeman16·
Excellent assessment of Afentra #aet ...
Stuart@ds_lyons

🧵 Afentra (#AET) is up for sale. The market thinks it's just an oil price play at $110 Brent. I think there's a named buyer already in the room. A thread. 👇

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