@SilasAveryNZ @RoaringRagnar @TanukiTreasury Mined supply makes no difference at this point. Daily trading volume is 300k plus. 450 new mined BTC doesn’t matter.
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Jesse
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@_JesseMK @RoaringRagnar @TanukiTreasury What daily Bitcoin purchases would you consider meaningful?
50% of daily mined supply?
100% of daily mined supply?
150% of daily mined supply?
Also consider that ASST brought with both SATA and ASST - likely to continue whilst Mnav remains positive.
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How to buy $ASST at 1x mNAV today.
Strive has generated a BTC Yield of 46.9% this year so far.
If they end the year at 75% BTC Yield, which is a realistic (and a bit sandbagged) assumption, it takes 8 months of holding $ASST until you earn back the full premium you pay today.
Which means that you can buy today, wait 8 months, and then your cost basis (in BTC terms) is at 1x mNAV.
The cool thing is, that this doesn't stop. Over time, your cost basis will drop to 0.5x mNAV or lower.
This is an excellent deal, if you ask me.
The earnback period will only increase from here, if they continue to perform like they are these days.
Just my 2 sats.
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SATA doesn't matter much. too small.
i'm glad STRC sales are helping BTC. but it's also pretty clear that STRC sales won't do much for MSTR common without BTC going up.
demand won't stop entirely. just needs to either require further rate increases; lose momentum because much of the demand appears to be div clippers; or be naturally limited by self imposed leverage ratio limits.
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@_JesseMK @TanukiTreasury The trend of both STRC as well as SATA is very promising.
My bet is on this trend to continue.
If demand were to suddenly stop, this would lead to the next bear cycle.
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@TanukiTreasury @RoaringRagnar Not enough time to determine. Lots of the movement in these companies is meme-based.
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@_JesseMK @RoaringRagnar That was my thought too, but the big difference is that SATA sales are barely affected by sentiment in ASST, whereas pure ATM-based buys are completely affected by it.
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@chcbearsfan @ryQuant We can probably get closer by discounting pool of fixed income holding govt bonds and looking at the BTC market cap. Maybe 50-100x lower. Imprecise of course but probably closer to reality.
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I really appreciate the post. I get too far out over my ski's with expectations and posts like this help keep me grounded
You are right we get caught up in the STRC will eat the world hype. I think it is a legitimate question that can likely be quantified to some degree. What is the real TAM for these instruments?
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Jesse retweetledi
The TAM for $STRC can reasonably be described a few ways. But I don’t think it can be described without identifying its key features. And it cannot be described simply as a broad category of a particular security because it fits into that bucket. For instance, no one would ever say the TAM for $NVDA stock is all equities in the world; or the TAM for BofA preferred stock is all of the fixed income securities in the world.
Picture a highly attractive preferred stock with similar features as $STRC but issued by a company that makes $1B in real revenue from the sale of a widget. Why would that revenue (which is absent in the case of $MSTR) render the TAM anything other than the TAM that Strategy claims: all of the fixed income securities in the world? Of course that would be absurd as you need to identify the market actually interested in a security tied in some way to the underlying sale of the widget.
In the case of $STRC, the TAM can favorably be described as investors seeking high-yielding low volatility securities that offer consistent income and are dependent on bitcoin’s performance. This is the favorable definition to Strategy. A narrower definition would go further and limit the TAM by qualifying that these investors are also comfortable with a single issuer with zero or negative earnings.
In any case, I think people are making a big mistake by assuming the TAM for $STRC is the $300T fixed income market simply by virtue of $STRC being bond-like. They ignore certain key attributes that significantly limit the addressable market.
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My brief $MSTR thesis is that, this is an unprecedented opportunity to own an irreversible Monopoly of an operating company that will be the largest holder of Bitcoin forever, and can also own anything else it wants in the long term. As far as the product, it is my strongest conviction that $STRC will eat the world as it is most aligned with the human condition and has the largest room for disruption via TAM expansion. STRC’s success may create a self fulling Long Squeeze on the price of bitcoin. No other company on Earth has the benefit of optionality in the way that @Strategy does. No other company on Earth has a more talented & ambitious team of Executives than Saylor and Long Phong. No other company is more transparent, yet clearly not well understood at large.
Digital Rome.
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@indieopshin @saylor Seems wild to accept and repeat that their TAM is global fixed income. Doesn’t hold up even a little scrutiny.
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$MSTR bulls: let’s accept the SpaceX claim that the TAM is $28.5T.
If SpaceX issued a dividend paying preferred stock, would the TAM transform to become the $300T fixed income market?
Does this make logical sense? 🤔
Chaitanya Jain@CJ_Bitcoin
SpaceX claims they have identified the largest TAM in human history at $28.5 trillion. (Source: S-1) But... the TAM for Digital Credit is an order of magnitude larger. $STRC
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This week we bought bonds, not bitcoin. The ₿itVac is charging.
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Sure, just borrow $200,000 every year. How do you pay it back? How do you deploy it in a way that provides you actual income to service your debts? Every time I read one of these ideas they seem untethered from reality. You need CASH FLOWS.
Shagun Makin@shaguncrypto
You could literally - - Stack 5 BTC at $70k ($350,000 total) - Bitcoin reaches $1M - Borrow just 4% against it yearly That’s $200,000/year in liquidity No capital gains tax & still holding the asset Why are people still trading their Bitcoin away?
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@OnrampBitcoin The podcasters talking about the advisors holding 30% are, almost without exception, holding 90% or more themselves.
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@btc_overflow @AndrejAntonie This is interesting. Seems like it’s still theoretical whether the prefs are actually capturing fixed income flows.
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I'm purposely drawing the distinction here primarily to exclude ATM/equity issuance only companies--which were most of the 2025 wave.
BTC denominated CBs issued primarily to bitcoiners? Also not playing the same game. Does not generate net new demand for bitcoin.
Where the rubber meets the road is whether or not the company is capturing flows from fixed-income markets. Perpetual preferreds are currently the best practical way, but not necessarily the only way. Traditional term debt (i.e., ordinary bonds) would also be great if it could be got on the right terms (but there's a reason you don't see it). CBs are a limited niche. They were a great way for MSTR to bootstrap its strategy, but CB only issuers are also really not the interesting category.
Practical speaking, DCI, in the narrow-sense of perpetual preferred share issuers only, is the category right now.
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I've been gradually falling out of love with "Bitcoin Treasury Company" as a category. It groups together too many unlike companies.
The category I'm focused on is Digital Credit Issuers (better name needed). If you are not in credit markets, you are not playing the same game.
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UPDATE: it only took me 16 seconds to sort 206 pieces.
Walker⚡️@WalkerAmerica
Instructions say this’ll take 3 people 18 hours to build… I’m going to do it in 9 hours by myself.
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@ryQuant @NitherDither I like how Ni is focused on what matters in investing: making $
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@_JesseMK @NitherDither Wanted to confirm so I peeped at the DMs too 🫡
Ni is right about this, while being wrong about $MSTR
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🎯 Oct 2025: Told y'all $27 ($1.35 pre-split) would be the ceiling for $ASST for a while. [1] Still down -33%.
🎯 Feb 2026: Highlighted a short squeeze setup with 57% SI. [2] Stock ran +96% since.
🔮 Going 3 for 3... now expecting sub-$12 by mid-July.
[1] x.com/NitherDither/s…
[2] x.com/NitherDither/s…
The Ni (f. Obsequious Knight of the Realm of ...)@NitherDither
Got bad news for @Strive ( $ASST) investors - y'all are royally f*cked for a long while. Tl;dr: • 100% of shares from the warrant exercises and 98.9% of the existing commons have been registered for sale. • $1.35 could end up being the price ceiling for a while. This is based on the 424(b)(7) prospectus [1] filed on Oct 10 that allows shares from the PIPE unlock to be sold. Details below. Number of shares and warrants: • 449,696,631 shares of Class A outstanding as of Oct 1 • 177,246,462 unexercised Pre-Funded Warrants w/ EP of $0.0001 per sh • 545,629,627 unexercised Traditional Warrants w/ EP of $1.35 per sh Once all the warrants are exercised, here's how the numbers for Class A breaks down: • Beneficially Owned: 1,296,210,145 • Registered for Sale: 1,283,904,392 (99%) • Not for Sale: 13,870,799 (1%) In summary: • 100% of both warrant types have been registered for sale • Only 1% of the Class A commons have NOT been registered for sale (Ignoring Class B and options since not relevant to this analysis.) What does this mean? Based on my experience with PIPE unlock plays over the years, I think: 1⃣ Share price will remain depressed for the foreseeable future since more shares than are currently outstanding are waiting to be dumped. 2⃣ The 177M Pre-funded Warrants will likely be dumped first since EP is effectively $0. 3⃣ The 545M Traditional Warrants will see dumps as price rise above the EP of $1.35. Even if the holders do not dump, market will anticipate it and front run by selling longs and loading shorts. (e.g. Metaplanet.) 4⃣ Credit to CEO @ColeMacro for not registering his shares for sale. 5⃣ Shame on CFO @BenPhiat for registering his for sale. What's the rush, man? 6⃣ Management will claim that "registering to sell" doesn't necessarily signal "intent to sell," let alone an impending sale. Every management team says this. They have to. We were not born yesterday and have seen this play out before. I wonder which of $ASST or $NAKA remains in purgatory longer. Sources: [1] #tSUM" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
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Come say hi if you’re at the Portland bitcoin conference today!
BITCOIN is for EVERYONE (May 22-23, 2026)@BITCOINisforALL
🗓️ THE SCHEDULE IS LIVE! 🗓️ #B4E2026 is 3 days away — and now you can see exactly what's in store. ⚡️ Thursday through Sunday. Workshops, keynotes, side events, and more. Portland, May 22–23 (+ pre & post events). 👉 bitcoinisforeveryone.com/schedule 🎟️ Last chance to grab your ticket: bitcoinisforeveryone.com/tickets #BitcoinIsForEveryone #BTC #PDX
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