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So I’ve been watching this @Polymarket prediction closely on, and I want to share why I personally lean toward the side that @Lighter_xyz FDV could push above $1B one day after launch.
Just to be clear, this isn’t a financial advice, it’s simply me acting on my own conviction what I like about prediction markets like @Polymarket is how they make you to think in probabilities, and sometimes hype.
When I see the market pricing this outcome around the higher end, it makes me pause and ask: why are people willing to stake money on this? For me, it comes down to how lighter-cap launches behave.
When a project starts with a manageable FDV, it often gives room for price discovery. If demand kicks in early, momentum alone can push valuations into that billion-dollar territory faster than people expect.
I’m essentially aligning with the idea that strong anticipation + lighter initial valuation + early liquidity can create sharp moves on day one.
I’m comfortable taking that side because it matches my personal risk appetite and the research I’ve done around similar launches.
Again, not a recommendation... just me sharing how I’m thinking through it as someone placing a conviction-based position on @Polymarket
What about you... how do you personally approach FDV predictions on Polymarket?

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