Short Term Capital Mismanagement

I prefer buy/hold time arbitrage but this is a traders market. I liquidated my $META position @ $152 for a ~7% loss. NASDAQ dislocation/whipsaw in liquidity is very concerning. I'll happily sit on the sidelines and watch. Still very bullish on the co and looking to re-enter lower

IS CONSULTING A DEAD-END INVESTMENT? I don’t think so. The market is pricing it like it is. From their all-time highs, major public consulting firms have been heavily repriced on AI fears: Accenture $ACN: down nearly -50% from 2025 high Booz Allen Hamilton $BAH: down 55% from 2024 high FTI Consulting $FCN: down 20% from 2024 high Gartner $IT: down 30% Capgemini $CAP.PA: down 40% from ATH The narrative: AI replaces consultants. I think that’s massively overblown.What the market is missing: 1) AI ≠ infinite acceleration The “just add more compute” story is starting to show limits - cost, diminishing returns, and real-world friction. AI will keep improving, but not in a straight line the market is pricing. 2) Consultants are the ones who monetize AI These firms aren’t getting disrupted - they’re positioned to win through: - Leaner teams means expanding margins. Selling AI strategy, integration, and deployment Helping enterprises actually implement “agentic” systems - Everyone wants AI. Almost no one knows how to deploy it at scale. 3) Enterprise transformation takes YEARS - Most large organizations are running on decades-old infrastructure (even mainframe architectures are still widely in use) - AI adoption means:ripping out legacy systems integrating across fragmented stacks navigating compliance and risk That’s not a product - that’s a multi-year consulting engagement. The reality: - Consulting isn’t dying, it’s becoming more critical! - AI increases complexity, not simplicity. And complexity drives demand for advisory. I’ve started buying Accenture and am watching the others closely. If sentiment shifts, a 50–70% rebound in high-quality names like ACN over the next 12–18 months is very realistic. This looks like a classic overreaction and there is money to be made!

The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. 

Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) 
I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. 

You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further:

“To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers”

Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US?

Hammond

Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: 
 “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”.  Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers")

Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry).  
The most compelling signal:

-> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD.  Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: 
“Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now.

Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. 

Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. 
 Just a TLDR:  
$AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear.

Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.