covielad

525 posts

covielad

covielad

@bod11111

Zurich, Switzerland Katılım Şubat 2011
1.6K Takip Edilen237 Takipçiler
covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@compoundpapi Painful shift, remains to be seen if they can pull it off. “Ai” revenue (whatever that really means, up to 15% of revenue. Presumably (and they said as much) it’s much higher margin than their traditional business, but they won’t give a number. If that grows as they expect, 👌🏽
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covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@DEgilsson So their stake in the ftse company is worth more than their entire market cap? Why the substantial mispricing?
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Ginnung Capital
Ginnung Capital@DEgilsson·
$NWL.MI One thing I’d like to add on NewPrinces negative EBIT and why I actually prefer it with current combination. €75.7M of D&A in a single quarter, right-of-use depreciation on 1,000+ retail stores and acquisition intangible amortisation. Non-cash. That is every euro shielding operating cash flow from tax. This is the John Malone playbook. Negative reported earnings masking real cash generation. TCI/Liberty was built on exactly this structure, maximise depreciation, shield cash flow, compound the difference. The three metrics that matter most for me with $NWL are EBITDA, FCF, and net cash. Not net income. €71M pre-working-capital operating cash flow in Q1. €317M net cash. 82% stake in a FTSE 250 company worth £930M. €699M market cap. The accounting loss is a compounding asset, not an issue.
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covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@_STCM Thx, short term risk/opportunity cost is that print is ok (but doesn’t confirm the worst bear case) and stock pukes to $2 or so I suppose?
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covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@_STCM Any thoughts on recent price action? Market assuming the worst before next print?
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covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@_STCM Good article, but the point about the dividend makes me question the integrity of the entire article - where did you get that?
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taobanker
taobanker@taobanker·
Been working on a real prompt again instead of just asking for bear/base/bull cases. It's medium key pretty fire. Post a ticker that's undervalued by at least 50% in the replies and i'll reply with feedback/questions from the AI.
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Carlos M
Carlos M@Carlos_MoraM·
🇮🇹 NewPrinces $NWL.MI accelerates its share buybacks in March, taking advantage of the weakness in the share price, and purchases 200k shares at an average of €18.66 🟢Additionally, it informs the market of its intention to increase the pace of buybacks to the maximum allowed if the stock returns to levels like those of last week 🎯As of the end of March, the company holds 2.60% of its shares as treasury stock and is authorized to repurchase up to 20% of the company
Carlos M tweet media
Carlos M@Carlos_MoraM

🇮🇹NewPrinces $NWL.MI – Updated Equity Research One of the companies we have spent the most time on over the past 4 years. 🎯Today, we cover: • FY25 results analysis, with a detailed breakdown of the main drivers, Q4 negative FCF, balance sheet, … • Independent assessment of the current situation at Princes UK and Carrefour Italia • The key elements of a potential Carrefour turnaround, including real estate, synergies, operational levers… • Our 2026–2028 outlook for NewPrinces (Princes & Carrefour), based on our own assumptions • Our estimate of Carrefour’s free cash flow based on all currently available information • Capital structure - both at Princes and at NewPrinces - and the group’s financial position • Our independent valuation, both for Princes on a standalone basis and for NewPrinces, under the two scenarios we consider most likely • Our thoughts on NewPrinces and what has changed since Tuesday

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Uzo
Uzo@Uzocapital·
Payments - there's so much value in this sector - I think investors are spoilt for choice. $RELY is my big bet, recently bought LEAPS in $GPN, think $DLO & $FOUR look very compelling and thought the pitch on $FISV on YAVP was interesting.
Uzo@Uzocapital

$RELY. My favourite idea (ex microcaps). Category leader, durable +20% growth runway, margin upside, earnings momentum & buybacks on a value multiple. FCF/share double in 2-3 years + re-rating => multi-bagger. Reminds me of $SPOT in early 2023 & $BKNG in early 2010s.

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covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@GHadjia Brilliant read George, thanks for sharing (and for the detailed post-mortem analysis and honesty!)
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George Hadjia
George Hadjia@GHadjia·
We published our March 2026 quarterly letter. The Fund returned -25.5% for the March 2026 quarter, with a -3.4% return for the month of March, net of fees. This was the most severe drawdown the Fund has experienced since inception. In the letter we discuss $APP, $FICO, $PAR...
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Thomas Votsaitis
Thomas Votsaitis@votsa8·
Trade Idea CAD/CHF SELL Disclaimer: Δεν είμαι επενδυτικός ή χρηματοοικονομικός σύμβουλος. Όλα όσα δημοσιεύω αποτελούν προσωπικές απόψεις και όχι προτροπή αγοράς ή πώλησης
Thomas Votsaitis tweet media
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covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@Uzocapital $iwg fall under b2b infra or out of the stock?
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Uzo
Uzo@Uzocapital·
Top Portfolio Themes: AI Beneficaries x4 Cheap LEAPS x4 Arbitration/Litigation x4 Recycling x3 B2B Infra x2 Nicotine Pouches x2 Royalties x2 D2D / Spectrum x2 Hardware + Software x2
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covielad
covielad@bod11111·
@Uzocapital Thanks Uzo, that’s fair, I was lulling Revolut, PayPal etc in as competition but not fully accurate. Interesting why banks + offline are losing so much share, any thoughts why? (just not their focus, aren’t agile enough and burdened with legacy infrastructure, reg etc)
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Uzo
Uzo@Uzocapital·
@bod11111 not sure i'd agree with the crowded / intense competition point... Wise & Remitly been growing fast + taking share relentlessly from banks + offline. There risks (and opportunities) - how material they are vs what is discounted in the valuation is the judgement call.
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Uzo
Uzo@Uzocapital·
$RELY. My favourite idea (ex microcaps). Category leader, durable +20% growth runway, margin upside, earnings momentum & buybacks on a value multiple. FCF/share double in 2-3 years + re-rating => multi-bagger. Reminds me of $SPOT in early 2023 & $BKNG in early 2010s.
Mario Cibelli@mario_cibelli

Now that the dust has settled on Remitly’s 2025 results, it’s pretty wild to see just how aggressively they flexed profitability this past Q4. I can’t recall an intra-quarter swing quite like this in my career. $RELY

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Casino Capital
Casino Capital@CasinoCapital·
Here's a trade if you like shopping: Next #nxt have a shareholder benefit where if you own 100 shares on April 1st, you get a one-time-use 25% off voucher valid for 6 months. To get it, you need 100 shares, and *today* is the day to buy them for April 1st settle ... you can then sell them tomorrow if want. Unfortunately, they're one of the few UK stocks that trades at a huge price, so that's ~£12,380 worth. Another issue is stamp duty + brokerage cost to take into account (and obviously a potential loss if the stock drops). For my account it looks like ~£70 cost. But if you're a big shopper, or away to lift a sofa set from Next Home or something, maybe it makes sense 🤷‍♂️
Casino Capital tweet mediaCasino Capital tweet media
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OSINTdefender
OSINTdefender@sentdefender·
Key government facilities across Tehran, and Iran are being targeted as a reported second wave of U.S-Israeli strikes target intelligence headquarters, the presidential palace, and other key facilities across the city. Per Reuters, Iran’s supreme leader has already been moved to a secure location. The targets of the strikes and recent reports from Israeli media that “assassination” strikes were carried out do indicate that at least the Irish wave of strikes were decapitation strikes. More to come.
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Dalius - Special Sits
Dalius - Special Sits@InvestSpecial·
Potential multibagger pitch from Buckley - $IWG.L transitioning from co-working to annuity-like managed & franchised model - Shift should drive earnings growth + multiple re-rating - By 2029 ~70% of revenue will come from M&F - Peer multiples imply ~30% IRR from today's prices
Dalius - Special Sits tweet media
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Keşfet

@compoundpapi @DEgilsson @_STCM @taobanker @Carlos_MoraM @nic_amadio @Uzocapital @GHadjia