Merlin

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Merlin

Merlin

@_XXC2_

institutional derivative trader - FX/rates/commoditys/structured

Katılım Ocak 2021
112 Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
Happy to share that yusuf opens up his discord. For you guys if you want to join... whop.com/yusuftrader1-s… Its not free but its worth it
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
Leveraged ETPs are derivatives that usually are build around a fundamentally strong underlaying. My predition is that this is the next big thing. The cds from today. Once there is an index on cds that is tradable for retail there will be leveraged alternatives too...
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
To be honest Leveraged ETFs are the way to go to build up big money. I see lots of people with a few millions hopping on that train lately. The new bitcoin you could argue....
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Jamaal Trades
Jamaal Trades@jamaal_trades·
@_XXC2_ The trend can’t change if the rate differential doesn’t. Still bullish. Y170 otw
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
$usdjpy seams like to have another major change in trend now. News coming from the central bank are always tradable.
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Brannigan Barrett
Brannigan Barrett@Trader_Bran·
Summary of FOMC Meeting -We decided not to change the easing bias because we dont think its appropriate to signal hikes at this point in time. Could come as soon as next meeting but centre of committee is happy to signal rates are at neutral. -Powell said im sticking around until im confident the attacks on Fed are resolved. So I will remain on the committee and be supportive to the new chair. -Inflation is elevated and a concern but given higher energy prices is a tax, the flip side is potential demand destruction which will push down on inflation. so its too soon to determine if the Middle East War warrants higher rates.
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Capital Hungry
Capital Hungry@Capital_Hungry·
Equities can be pricing in a cushion. Shock of ground troops or damage of Strait of hormuz would cause flash crash from 6500s spx or panic selling. VS another controlled profit taking move from same aths where rate cuts were collapsing. Oil price is the key to reality of middle east tensions, true resolution would see us at pre war prices not above 90
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
War is over. Whats coming now. The story is this: - trump needs good conditions till the midterm elections are to justify his actions - midterms will be lost - trump will stand against that and pull something nobody expects - spacex/openai IPO seam to be overvalued (2T marketcap at 19 billion revenue), will trigger major selloffs in nasdaq100 too These are your notes. Take 2026 easy. Hope you are in the markets already.
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
@Capital_Hungry But the markets do not care. Otherwise we would not be that high on equitys. This discussion was never about oil. Oil is important for the EU, not so much for the US. If they need oil they can get it
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Capital Hungry
Capital Hungry@Capital_Hungry·
@_XXC2_ Exactly and this will be the focus point back on usd and risky assets (inflation adjustments on fed policy) if no war resolution hence I said the 10,000 units of military support is a big sign.
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
@Capital_Hungry That gap will only close fully when there is physical delivery again. Otherwise we will edge higher in oil
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Capital Hungry
Capital Hungry@Capital_Hungry·
@_XXC2_ What about when the contracts expire and gap closes with no changes in real world economic activity disruption
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
@Capital_Hungry No commoditys price different. Its about physical delivery.
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
Watch out for japan....
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
@Capital_Hungry Its about what the market thinks, not about what really happens. If you know what is going to happen before does not mean the market thinks the same. Think like the market, otherwise you would be still on the sidelines while indexes are at alltime highs
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Capital Hungry
Capital Hungry@Capital_Hungry·
@_XXC2_ War is over is a wierd take when US sent 10,000 military personelle with the blockade this week
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
@YusufMacro1 Yea till the system does not eork anymore. But for now it looks good.
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
@LeverageShares Do you guys plan to launch a 3x space x ETP. If you are quick on that it will be a huge capital magnet i think
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
$NBIS prices an upsized $4B convertible note at very low rates (1.25% due 2031, 2.625% due 2033) with conversion premiums of ~57% above current price. Dilution is contained (~9%) while investors fund billions of AI infrastructure buildout with a clear bet on upside.
Shay Boloor tweet media
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Brannigan Barrett
Brannigan Barrett@Trader_Bran·
We have roughly 7 days before we see some significant repricing - i suspect we have ‘we ready for talks’ at some point this week. Big week for markets - rest of year will be defined by this week .
Brannigan Barrett tweet media
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Merlin
Merlin@_XXC2_·
This can escelate quickly! IRAN MISSILES FIRED TOWARD CYPRUS, UK WARNS The UK says Iran launched two missiles toward Cyprus, potentially marking the first Iranian missile attack on Europe. Defense Secretary John Healey said the missiles were likely not aimed at UK bases on the island but called the *WB
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