ELRA.eth

There is a collective perception growing on CT that Quantum computing will kill Bitcoin by 2030. Stupid. Baseless. This is what you call a golden FUD. Bitcoin uses ECDSA signature with a size of 512 bits. The best quantum computer in the world has only achieved 1386 qubits, and that too in highly controlled lab conditions, not in a scalable or stable environment. Academic research suggests a quantum computer will need at least 13M qubits of stable, error-corrected power to crack an ECDSA signature within 8 hours. That means quantum computing needs to achieve more than 10,000x growth in stability and performance before it can even touch Bitcoin’s existing cryptography. And you guys are expecting that to happen before 2030? Meanwhile, have you even tracked the developments around post-quantum cryptography? It’s moving much faster. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already approved 3 quantum-resistant signature schemes. These are not theoretical, they are tested, reliable, and up to 10x larger in size than ECDSA. The Bitcoin dev community is not asleep either. They have already proposed QuBit soft fork (BIP 360) to introduce Quantum Resistant Hash (P2QRH), an output type that relies on post-quantum signature algorithms. Addresses with the prefix “bc1r” will be identified as quantum-resistant public keys. Right now, less than 6M Bitcoins remain vulnerable to the future quantum threat because they sit in older P2PK addresses. These can be migrated to safer address types like P2WSH to avoid risk. In the long run, Bitcoin miners are highly incentivized to approve proposals introducing quantum-resistant signatures. Their entire business depends on network security. They will not sit idle and watch Bitcoin collapse. So, yes, there is a theoretical threat. But it is not imminent. It will take decades of breakthroughs in error correction, stability, and scaling for quantum computers to even reach the threshold. And by that time, Bitcoin will likely have already upgraded its cryptographic backbone. The real question is not “Will quantum kill Bitcoin?” The real question is: “Will Bitcoin upgrade faster than quantum computers evolve?” If history is any proof, open-source cryptography has always stayed one step ahead. Lost coins like the 1.6M abandoned ones, and Satoshi’s stash, yes - they are at risk whenever quantum reaches that stage. But for the rest of the network, the transition is possible, and it will be done. There is a threat. But that threat is not coming soon. It will take its own time. And if it ever arrives, it will not wipe out Bitcoin, it will only force its next evolution.

⚠️ INSTITUTIONS COULD “FIRE” BITCOIN DEVS OVER QUANTUM RISK Big holders like BlackRock may lose patience if Bitcoin developers don’t address quantum computing threats, says VC Nic Carter. He warns that if devs “do nothing,” institutions could take control and replace them.