Max

@64s @mattkalish KYC isn’t related to this. Even without KYC they could still use user ids

@mattkalish great argument against kyc

Q: Why does Kalshi share your user id to Wall Street market makers in RFQ api? A: To profile order flow for “risk management” *but* Wall Street = 😇, so we pinky promise to NOT to use it to flag winning users, share lists, and decide when we’d prefer to not provide liquidity 😉

These photos indicate that around half of the open interest as well as volume on this entire market(all strikes combined) occurred that afternoon on these Jensen Huang strikes. This market was up for several days before that.

Eventually Jensen Huang was confirmed to be on the AF1 very late that night, but up to this point everything indicated that he was not going. Nevertheless, all throughout the afternoon the volume on him going spiked and before any news of him going broke tens of thousands or even a 100k contracts with massive spillage sometimes up to nearly 50 cents in price were being bought.

Here is thread of extremely suspicious activity on Kalshi resembling possible insider trading. Last Friday someone bought over a 100k of contracts of Jensen Huang "YES" joining Trump's China Trip at disproportionate volume, completely front-running public news.

There is tens of k of liq available for OKC/Spurs Game 2 on Kalshi at around 7-8% to what the actual line will end up barring a major injury. Actual large market makers still can't recognize this because sportsbooks haven't "posted yet".

@BrianQuintenz I encountered what I thought was obvious insider trading last week on a "Y" Jensen Huang going to China with Trump market and reported it. The issue is they have zero communication after you report it, and they don't tell you anything.

Takeaway: Kalshi is doing real surveillance, based on actual KYC, to proactively launch its own investigations and hold bad actors accountable. 💪💪

@UofBasketball Talented lineup but the the actual fit does not sound good. Basically a triple big look, and the wing + perimeter defense will be lackluster.

Keyonte George Darryn Peterson Lauri Markkanen Jaren Jackson Jr. Walker Kessler

@thenarrator Not really. Fees are still the vast majority(like 95%) of their revenue, and its the only way they can justify valuations.

@Max_Sorokin_ they are making money through other avenues tho

i believe that zero-fee permissionless venues are an existential threat to regulated prediction market exchanges if hyperliquid HIP-4 scales as designed then regulated venues face long-tail liquidity drain they can’t fix by being more compliant

@JTFOz I also think Pistons win, but Pistons line already reflects all of what you said about Harden. They are substantially bigger favorites than they were in games 1-2,5, and it has been that way since the opening line.

Best bet of the night for the NBA: Pistons -4.5 -106 Yeah, the whole James Harden thing is a factor, but let's not forget the Cavs are 1-5 SU and ATS on the road during the playoffs with multiple double-digit losses with the only win being a pretty big choke by Detroit. Cleveland's offense hasn't travel in these playoffs and I doubt that changes in an extremely high-pressure spot tonight.

@techsportsmark Yea, its just that there is a common belief that MM are super sophisticated & predatory but its actually the opposite. They are profitable because the huge fees on Kalshi prevent them from being picked off and the average retail volume is even dumber and larger.

@Max_Sorokin_ Well then that's good for the rest of us. 😁

Market makers on exchanges like Kalshi are not able to operate without odds feeds to sportbooks even pre-game and are completely reliant on them. Example: Liquidity on Kalshi goes from 500 to 300k at BID price for tomorrow's MLB game the second Pinnacle/FD posts odds. It should be the opposite in theory because exchanges have larger liquidity and should attract more sophisticated participants. In reality sportsbooks are still far more sophisticated than actual MM's on Kalshi, and that might never change.

I truly think this and am not joking: But if SGA was out tomorrow and sportsbooks didn't change odds or hide odds they wouldn't even know. Or if a book set a 160 line lie for an MLB game that is actually 120, they would still copy. But they still make money because of Kalshi's huge fees which prevent them from getting picked off, and retail.

Vast majority if not 100% of market makers simply copy sportsbook odds and then figure out how to squeeze the most out of noob exchange bettors doing the normal thing Wall Street always do with everything. Use tech and optimize returns. Trust me no one is doing anything nice here in this ecosystem.

Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)

I would like to see market makers at least once post decent liquidity(100k) for say MLB/NBA before any book posts odds, but that will never happen because its too much risk. It is what sportsbooks do though. Instead the liquidity will literally go from hundreds to hundreds of thousands 0.5 seconds after a major book posts.

@Max_Sorokin_ @Nick_Verd Much more to be honest I would say not less than 300x less liquidity

@mattkalish @Nick_Verd The liquidity is essentially provided by books not MM's, there would x100 less liquidity for tomorrow's OKC/Spurs game if sportsbooks hypothetically took the day off and decided not to post odds. Sportbooks take on way more risk than MM's.

@Nick_Verd How did we manage to book 2.5 trillion of risk last year then, 500x Kalshi liquidity provided by all of of you guys and the Market makers from Wall Street?

Read the thread, and I don't think Market Makers have any edge over a sportsbook, and they in-fact take on zero risk compared to books. They just rely on odds feeds. The liquidity for tomorrow's MLB game is $400, and goes to 300k the second a major book posts odds, but never before. If say Pinnacle decided to put a +150 price instead of +120 for tomorrow game MM's would still copy.

@Gugabed Agree Wall streets’ current MM edge is no less than 15% higher than sportsbooks it seems, before considering rewards. It’s all just messaging being pushed by the same 3 groups to confuse this.

@paulg Not really, this is just heavily edited and not actually a raw image.

Sometimes real life looks surprisingly AI-generated.

@FiddlesPicks Tough to say because Spurs have really improved since they even beat OKC this season. I'm guessing OKC will be around +230 at home to open, and very very slight favorites on the road, or like truly 50/50.

SPURS @ THUNDER - GUESS THE LINES! What is the spread @ OKC Game 1? What is the total for Game 1? What is the series price? Can anyone nail all 3? First person that does, I'll send you a Wemby Rookie Card.

@TheNotoriousSKi @evan_semet Yea, 7 figures of liq is never going to available unless its literally a market order with a massive fee(larger than vig) at tip off/closing line. But 50-200k even at opening line is more than what you can get down on sportsbooks.

@Max_Sorokin_ @evan_semet This is an NBA playoff game ~24hrs away, market open on Pinnacle. For an individual trader, sure that is big liquidity, but for an operator who would be doing the proposed strategy, I don’t think there is enough available. I’d assume they’d be needing 7 figures+ to make it worth