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$MSTR: @Strategy deciding to do a convertible note buyback is fantastic, but let's manage expectations, this does not mean short pressure is gone.
They are buying back about $1.5B of its 2029 convert and converts create structural equity hedging pressure since bond holders short $MSTR shares as part of a convert-arb hedge.
Retiring part of that debt can reduce a long term source of consistent hedge related short exposure. But that is the "stock" side of that pressure.
This chart below is showing the "flow" in the form of daily reported short volume. It visualizes how many shares are reported sold short on a given trading day, including hedging, market-making, and intraday trading activity. Some of that might be positions that are closed quickly, some are not. (Note: Daily Short Volume is not Short Interest.)
So the buyback helps reduce one structural overhang, but $MSTR still has to absorb heavy daily short selling flow. That is why both things can be true:
1. The convert buyback is positive for long term price action.
2. Daily short volume remains a real headwind.
The current price | short volume correlation is weakly inverse, so I would not claim shorts are a “driver” of price. The persistent size of the short volume flow is very useful context for understanding MSTR’s market behavior.
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